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A Self-Fulfilling Speculative Strategy

A report from the American Statesman in Texas. “The chief appraiser for the Williamson Central Appraisal District told county commissioners this month that the median market value of a home in the county fell about 12% in 2022. Chief Appraiser Alvin Lankford said the decrease was due to rising interest rates, which led to more homes on the market and houses staying on the market longer before they sold. The median market value of a home in Williamson County, or the amount that the county thinks a home would sell for, fell from $473,328 in 2021 to $414,869 in 2022, Lankford said.”

The Idaho Press. “A relief in rising housing prices is bringing property tax relief to Boiseans in the upcoming fiscal year, even with Mayor Lauren McLean proposing a hike in tax collections to keep pace with growth. This year, property tax bills are expected to decline by $137, dropping to $1,455 for the average Boise home valued at $486,280. This is down from a bill of $1,593 last year when an average-priced Boise home was $564,245.”

KKTV in Colorado. “A lot of you may have questions about the property valuations that you received in the mail, so I sat down with the El Paso County Assessor Mark Flutcher to find out more information about the valuations and how the appeal process works. The housing market has been up and down since the start of the pandemic. It seems like it’s cooled off a little this year, so I asked whether the county would do a reappraisal sooner than the two-year benchmark to account for the difference. In response, Flutcher told me they ‘have to stick to that time period, given by state statute.’ The county tells me this same type of thing happened during the last recession — before the housing market crashed.”

Willamette Week in Oregon. “Way back in 2016, I coined the slogan ‘Make Portland Shitty Again’ on the theory that if we could convince the rest of America that Portland was a terrible place, maybe they’d stop moving here and driving up the rents. Now it’s finally starting to work and everybody acts like it’s the goddamned apocalypse. Where, I ask you, is the gratitude? But let’s not give up on Portland quite yet. It’s true that from 2020 to 2022 the Rose City was eighth out of 69 on the list of fastest-shrinking U.S. cities with populations over 300,000. But listen to the seven cities that shrank even faster: San Francisco, New York City, San Jose, Boston, New Orleans, Long Beach, Chicago, Cleveland and Detroit.”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “Is Union Square in downtown San Francisco really dying? Nordstrom is shutting down its two stores in the area. Saks Off 5th is leaving. T-Mobile already closed its two-level flagship store. The exodus of these business has concerned some business leaders and economists alike. ‘This is an example of the pressure urban retail has been feeling as a result of how people buy things,’ said Wade Rose, president of Advance SF, a business advocacy group. ‘San Francisco is deeply engaged and dealing with that issue. There are roughly 300,000 less people in downtown San Francisco than there was in 2019.'”

The Daily Mail. “‘When it comes to listing a home now, you want to win the beauty contest,’ said licensed realtor Adie Kriegstein, who founded NYC Experience at Compass. For South Carolina realtor Drake Johnson, the key issue now is pricing competitively. ‘At the moment, you don’t want your home sitting on the market,’ he told Dailymail.com. ‘Making sure you know exactly how much houses are going for in your area and pricing it competitively will make it shine. I have a realtor friend in San Antonio who is pricing properties around $10,000-$15,000 below what they think they’re worth as a way to get buyers. It’s worth it if it stops a property sitting on the market for weeks or even months.'”

“Data from Redfin found that two of the worst-affected areas included Oakland and San Francisco – which recorded decreases of $220,000 and $174,000 respectively. Other major metros to be badly affected were Austin, Boise, Salt Lake City, Seattle and Los Angeles – all of which saw their median home price shed at least $60,000 since April 2022.”

The Commercial Observer. “EY Plaza, the 41-story office tower in Downtown L.A., went to a special receiver after its owner, Brookfield, missed payments on its $275 million in commercial mortgage-backed securities financing. And, after threatening it would do so months ago, RXR is walking away from 61 Broadway, where it defaulted on a $240 million loan on May 1. ‘There is also the old saying that ‘When there is blood in the street, buy property,’ wrote Bob Knakal in his column for CO this week. ‘Although different sectors of the market are performing differently today, for a number of sectors there is blood in the street.’ Knakal notes that prices have fallen to levels that haven’t been seen in 15 to 20 years in certain asset classes … and yet there is still an intense reluctance to buy as investors wait for absolute bottom.”

Toronto Life in Canada. “When his inbox pinged early one summer day in 2020, Dundas Kwok clicked. The message was from a real estate consultant named Courtney Wallis Simpson, and she had two exclusive, yet-to-be-advertised listings she thought he might be interested in. Convinced, he sent Simpson two deposits by certified cheque totalling $250,000. He contacted Simpson in June of 2021 to cancel the deal. Simpson wrote back, telling him not to worry about the paperwork and confirming that the deal was indeed off. When he followed up with her again a few days later, she said she was in the midst of moving offices and would send him a cheque when she had more time, promising to get in touch soon.”

“His anxiety turning to frustration, he called Simpson to demand that she return his deposits—only to discover that her number was no longer in service. On July 13, 2022, Peel police arrested Courtney Wallis Simpson and her husband, Kenneth Wayne Simpson, and formally charged them with fraud, forgery, theft and possession of the proceeds of a crime. Kwok learned that this wasn’t a one-time error in judgment, either: there were at least 16 other victims. Not only was his money gone, but Kwok would soon find out that Simpson hadn’t even been authorized to sell the properties he thought he was buying.”

“As Simpson struggled to pay off her condo investors and keep her Ponzi scheme afloat, she embarked on a new scam: hawking enticing not-yet-listed commercial properties in and around Stouffville, then collecting deposits from multiple buyers. Simpson met a woman I’ll call Emily. (She requested anonymity) Emily knew people who had invested with Simpson and were pleased with the returns, and Simpson asked her if she was interested in doing the same.”

“One morning not long afterward, her phone rang. It was Simpson, sobbing and apologizing. Emily demanded to know what was going on. ‘She said, ‘None of it’s real,’ Emily recalls. ‘There are no condos. There’s nothing.’ Simpson told Emily that the rest of her investment was gone and that she had to get off the phone to turn herself in to the police. Then she asked Emily if they could still be friends. That was the last time the women spoke.”

From 7 News. “Another WA building firm has gone under, with The Slatter Group appointing liquidators to wind up its operation. The firm, established two decades ago, specialised in design construction, fit-outs and residential projects and described its team as among the ‘pre-eminent builders’ in the state. But on Tuesday it emerged the builder had collapsed and that 15 projects had ground to a halt as a result. Nine staff have also stopped work. Slatter Group directors voluntarily sought liquidation after succumbing to financial troubles, Ernst and Young told The West Australian.”

“Close to 100 construction businesses in WA collapsed in 2021-22, according to corporate regulator ASIC. ‘More than 27,000 homes were under construction at the end of 2022 but rates of completion remain slow and financial pressure continues to build on those consumers paying rent while servicing their mortgage debt,’ the director of Curtin University’s Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute said.”

The South China Morning Post. “But even after the country’s borders reopened, allowing wealthy Chinese nationals to return to their old haunts for property purchases, a once-favoured destination is not a part of her plans. Recent data and trends, as well as anecdotal evidence, all point to mainland Chinese buyers going beyond Hong Kong in search of new property investments. Prices of lived-in homes in the city have declined by about 12 per cent since a peak in July 2021, according to an index compiled by the Rating and Valuation Department. Since bottoming out in December, prices gained about 5 per cent as of March, but several analysts have forecast that this rally may be over.”

International Business Times. “Sharing prosperity is China’s newest policy priority. But the country’s young have yet to get a taste of it, as they have difficulty finding a job and cannot afford to buy a home, get married and raise a family. China’s youth unemployment rate jumped from 13.6% in April 2021 to 23% in April 2023, a period overall unemployment rate trended lower. The problem is so severe that tens of thousands of master’s degree holders earn a living as delivery workers.”

“Meanwhile, China’s demographics are worrisome. First-time marriages dropped to 11.6 million last year, close to 700,000 down on the previous year, according to the China Statistics Yearbook 2022 — half the peak of 23.9 million in 2013. Paradoxically, China’s property bubble results from one government policy promoting the development of ghost cities — newly-built vacant apartments — owned by affluent landlords with the expectation to profit from rising home prices.”

“That’s a self-fulfilling speculative strategy. Keeping apartments off the market leads to housing shortages and higher home prices. It brings prosperity to landlords and misery to young people who cannot afford them.”

From Reuters. “The last great hope for China’s faltering post-pandemic rally is fading as the nation’s legion of small-time investors turns bearish on equities to double down instead on safer assets amid a stuttering economic recovery. ‘I am quite disappointed,’ said Eric Yu, a programmer in his 30s in Shanghai who’s been investing for around three years. ‘I will not put any more money into stocks until all my losses are recovered,’ he said. Rather, spooked by the spectre of tech layoffs and youth unemployment, he has been putting some half of his monthly income into wealth and deposit products. ‘Safety is more important at this time … I don’t want to lose my principal.'”

“Interviews with a dozen more small investors showed the sentiment to be reasonably widespread. Turnover in the A-share market is at the lowest level since early March. Brokerage account creation, while volatile, likewise dropped off in April after promising momentum in February and March, China Securities Depository and Clearing data showed. Mutual fund launches, a proxy for investor interest, also fell away. ‘Now my stock portfolio books a loss of about 90%,’ said Meng, a Shanghai local in his 40s who gave only his surname. He previously used to eagerly subscribe to new listings, hoping for a first-day price surge. ‘I can do nothing but wait ’till it turns black.'”

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This Post Has 120 Comments

    1. It was Simpson, sobbing and apologizing. … she had to get off the phone to turn herself in to the police. Then she asked Emily if they could still be friends.

      This makes me feel ashamed of any who is (or is pretending to be) my gender. We can’t even do crime right. 🙄

      3. Yeah, less than 5 on a 10 scale means she won’t be able to auction her used panties on eBay.

  2. ‘Close to 100 construction businesses in WA collapsed in 2021-22, according to corporate regulator ASIC. ‘More than 27,000 homes were under construction at the end of 2022 but rates of completion remain slow and financial pressure continues to build on those consumers paying rent while servicing their mortgage debt’

    Paying rent and a mortgage on a shack that doesn’t exist. Yer catching up with China-ron, Aust-ns

  3. ‘The last great hope for China’s faltering post-pandemic rally is fading as the nation’s legion of small-time investors turns bearish on equities to double down instead on safer assets amid a stuttering economic recovery’

    The globalist scum media is a sad panda. Why China is going to the moon, Alice! Lot’s of people shot themselves in the fook with CCP virus pooh bear, but you did more damage than all of them put together.

  4. The Denver economy doesn’t work unless you bought your house 10 years ago, or better yet 25 years ago.

    Everybody is leaving.

    1. unless you bought your house 10 years

      Unless you’re on HBB and you bought your house ten years ago, in which case your personal microeconomy still doesn’t work well enough to please anyone. 🤣

  5. A reader sent these in:

    There is this seemingly prevalent idea that Gen Y/Z are going to get these big inheritances soon and it’s going to help rebalance wealth or get them into the property market. This is incorrect. More than 80% of inheritances flow to those 50+ and over 60% going to those 55+.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1662644131049660416

    I think we can say that U.S core inflationary pressures are looking pretty entrenched. It’s also worth noting that this is not what core inflation looked like during previous supply shock catalyst inflation shocks in the past, inflation did not persist like this.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1662126655652118528

    Now we know who have been paying 7 to 10 times revenue for megacaps. Just amazing.

    https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO/status/1662868471812870145

    But is it really bad news and unexpected? It’s really just news. I’m just surprised by this somewhat widely held notion that repaying loans should be delayed for years or that they should never need to be repaid at all. I am looking at people who will need to start repaying school loans in a month and thinking man, they got some deal! I wish I had some sort of a delayed repayment plan for multiple years when I was paying back school loans. At basically full employment right now in this country, many people have had years to work, save money, earn interest, and be better prepared to repay these loans once that started again (without interest even accruing). I was fine with most of the pandemic response, temporarily paying extra unemployment, temporary forbearance and no interest accrual on student loans, etc., and our tax dollars were used to pay that. But the whole idea was that this was all “temporary” which is what makes some of these reactions surprising to me. Maybe I am missing something?

    https://twitter.com/AdamKiesel/status/1662894733382008832

    This is big. I can now confirm that Regional Acceptance, a major subprime auto lender, has started cutting independent car dealers. Regional is a subsidiary of Truist — 7th largest bank in the U.S. Big blow to used car dealers.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1662093046064861184

    Student loan payments restarting will do more for inflation reduction than any other plans.

    https://twitter.com/alexmeshkin/status/1663162375757864961

    Exercise: Add $393 to your monthly bills. If that’s easy breezy for you, no need to reply. If it WOULD affect your budget, what spending would be sacrificed?

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1663217985496989696

  6. Don’t depend on an inheritence , An evil Mother-in-law went to great effort to leave it all to charity ,in our case …..it’s OK ,she’s gone and forgotten now, not worth hating over ……..just remembering….

    1. What inheritances do Boomers have? Maybe a small pension, which ends at death. Social Security, which ends at death. A small 401K which is spent on some travel and the beginnings of expensive health care. The only asset left is a house which has probably been already hocked to send that Millenial to college. Eventually it all gets sold to pay for long-term until Boomer Mom finally passes away at age 85+, at which point the Millenials will be 55+.

      And that’s assuming Dad stayed with Mom and didn’t trade her in for a newer model and pop out another kid who gets all the attention.

      1. And that’s assuming Dad stayed with Mom and didn’t trade her in for a newer model and pop out another kid who gets all the attention.

        Or vice versa (IIRC, women file for divorce 75% of the time). From what I have observed anecdotally, it’s the ladies who have children with multiple men. One nephew’s ex has kids from 3 different men. And he has cousins in the same boat. In fact i don’t have a single nephew who is in a marriage where the only kids are his (disclaimer: some have no kids).

        The typical pattern I see is the nephew marries a never married woman with one or more children from other men, who made themselves scarce when she got pregnant.

          2. From what I have observed:

            Even though the nephews are gainfully employed they overall are not attractive to women. So they have to “settle” and raise other men’s (usually bad boys”) children. They end up having a kid with her. Then the dead bedroom makes its appearance and she eventually presses the eject button and he’s gone. He ends up having to pay child support. She usually already has a replacement for him lined up.

            The nephews are gobsmacked when this happens, and they often join the “once and done” club. They get to see their kid twice a month.

          3. Must be the water in Colorado.

            Similar racial and socioeconomic people in my circle do not have that, on the surface anyway. Most men in 30s and 40s are married with wives and children. Some are divorces of course. I am sure lots going on behind the scene but from outside they look well put together. I am expecting midlife crisis for some…..time will tell I suppose.

          4. “She usually already has a replacement for him lined up.”

            According to Anthropology, “monkey branching.”

        2. The typical pattern I see is the nephew marries a never married woman with one or more children from other men, who made themselves scarce when she got pregnant.

          It’s a Reddit /r/DeadBedrooms situation… Find a decent woman

          So, it seems that willing women with no children are non-existent, leaving men with the unfavorable choice between a Dead Bedroom or a single mom with rugrats. Does nobody understand birth control anymore?

          1. Does nobody understand birth control anymore?

            Today’s discourse/options: birth it or abort it.

          2. “If it flies, floats or fornicates, don’t buy it – lease it!”. True now than ever. Finding a female in the US who isn’t a leftist dupe has become nearly impossible. MGTOW (Men Going Their Own Way) is a movement gaining more adherents every day.

        3. Also, I have no nieces who have husbands that cheat on them. I suppose that might be because the cads refuse to say “I do”. They date the girls, and when things start to sour, they move on to the next one.

        4. She didn’t get pregnant.
          He got her pregnant.
          You keep forgetting about MALE responsibility here.

          1. You must have missed the HBB memo: all women are conniving whores seeking to ruin men.

          2. HBB memo

            My apologies, Ben. I know this doesn’t emanate from you but it’s how the comments read.

          3. all women are conniving whores seeking to ruin men.

            and (some of) the HBB men wouldn’t have it any other way, given that they can’t seem to shut up about the thin figures, long legs, and daily thigh gaps that exist only on only conniving whores. If not, well, it’s the cats and box wine for you!

          4. about the thin figures

            oxide
            May 30, 2023 at 11:48 am
            The ideal weight for a 6’1″ man is 172 pounds.

            That’s some funny irony right there.

    2. My parents did the reverse mortgage thing so I might get a used toaster or some such. Mother is keen to tell anyone who will listen that she is a highly intelligent liberal. Recent reports have indicated at least 5 shots but she is sure that that has nothing to do with mysterious recent ailments. There really isn’t any reason to argue anymore, I just nod now.

      1. My parents have no assets to speak of, only debt, and not enough cash to even pay for their own funerals. I’m the only child with more than $500 in the bank account after the 1st of the month, so it will be entirely on me to cover that expense. Same for my brother when he passes, and the same for my younger sister when she died in a car accident, with no life insurance or assets, earlier this century. The reality is that I have my own family and young children I pay for so they may not get a funeral, but instead, some sort of ‘remembrance’ luncheon several weeks later, with a cremation.

    3. look at the bright side. you made it on your own. I made a decision to not accept anything from any side of the family. I feel good about it, and we don’t have any discussions ever in our families about money. any of my siblings or in-laws feel embarrassed to bring up any issues or claims among themselves. amazing how that works.

  7. Divorce update: they’re gonna try to “work it out” and stay living together. Having a $450,000 mortgage balance might be part of it, LOLZ.

    North Denver suburbs, age 31.

    1. What’s the grounds for them to separate? Cheating? Just don’t love each other anymore?

        1. He’s getting cvcked. He needs to proceed with the divorce and find a decent woman. They are still out there, just harder to find these days.

          2. without tattoos and below 130lbs.

            … that are under age 45, I assume. Meanwhile, all the men under age 45 who are under 170 lb and tatless are probably passport bros, and at this point can you blame them? What a sorry world we live in.

          3. “all the men under age 45 who are under 170 lb and tatless”

            You apparently like the Adam Schiff/pencil-neck look.

          4. The ideal weight for a 6’1″ man is 172 pounds. That’s not really realistic for any man over age 30. But if men are going to demand ideal weights, then why shouldn’t women?

          5. But if men are going to demand ideal weights, then why shouldn’t women?

            I’m gonna go out on a limb and guess that the dudes who give the ladies the tingles are muscular and weigh more than the ideal.

          7. 6’1 172 lbs. Thats’ a stick not a man.

            In college (a million years ago), when all I did was exercise, ride bikes, run, lift, occasionally go to class, I weighed 189lbs. at 6% bodyfat. I looked like a regular guy. 172lbs………….that’s ridiculous. I probably weighed 172lbs as a sophmore in high school. (in the chess club mind, you, no athletic skills at all)

            a 6’1″ man should be about 200lbs.

            You’d be lucky to find a woman 6’1″ tall at 172lbs.

          8. It’s a no-win situation. Even an easy divorce will destroy him mentally and emotionally for several years. Then he’ll spend a long time trying to find another woman. He may never find another one.

          9. The ideal weight for a 6’1″ man is 172 pounds.

            I just so happen to be 6’1″, 195. If I were 172 I’d be emaciated. When I used to play baseball I was closer to 220. I still wear the same size pants waist as I did right out of high school. You must like soy boys.

    2. I wonder if it’s the pro bono case my sibling took on for a friend. The woman in the case wants to stay in the house, but won’t be able to afford the monthly without the husband’s share.

      It’s a widespread problem these daze. My daughter faces the same situation splitting up with her boyfriend.

      1. Please don’t tell me your daughter and her boyfriend actually bought a house together.

      2. So, it’s your daughter and the day-trading boyfriend who split but are still living together?

  8. “It’s true that from 2020 to 2022 the Rose City was eighth out of 69 on the list of fastest-shrinking U.S. cities with populations over 300,000. But listen to the seven cities that shrank even faster: San Francisco, New York City, San Jose, Boston, New Orleans, Long Beach, Chicago, Cleveland and Detroit.”

    With so many running away from overpriced urban housing markets, you would think housing units would become more available and prices would drop.

    I wonder when we might see this development?

  9. KKTV in Colorado. “A lot of you may have questions about the property valuations that you received in the mail, …”

    “The housing market has been up and down since the start of the pandemic. It seems like it’s cooled off a little this year, so I asked whether the county would do a reappraisal sooner than the two-year benchmark to account for the difference. In response, Flutcher told me they ‘have to stick to that time period, given by state statute.’ “

    “The county tells me this same type of thing happened during the last recession — before the housing market crashed.” ☠️

    – Housing (Hosing?) Bubble 2.0: “It’s deja by all over again.” – Yogi Berra

    – Same scenario as 1.0: Easy $ policies from various housing entities + the Fed (all .gov) inflating another asset bubble.

    – Note: It’s currently 2x more expensive to buy vs. rent in Colorado Springs. P + I only. Property taxes and insurance are up, as are maintenance costs (inflation). That’s extra! Colorado Springs is just another bubble city.

    – House prices still at 3% 30 yr. mortgage rates, except for new construction, where builders are offering mortgage rate buy-downs and other concessions and incentives. 30 yr. fixed rate mortgage now at 7.14%. 👀. Prices need to drop by 35 – 40%.

    – Bursting asset bubbles are inconvenient, but always follow a boom. No one was complaining on the way up. Enjoyed the boom? Now enjoy the bust.🙃

    2. “House prices still at 3% 30 yr. mortgage rates, except for new construction, where builders are offering mortgage rate buy-downs and other concessions and incentives. 30 yr. fixed rate mortgage now at 7.14%. 👀. Prices need to drop by 35 – 40%.”

      Any thoughts on why it takes sellers so long to realize how much the value of their home has fallen after interest rates spike?

        2. Yep, a good portion of our GDP is from mortgage closings and vehicle sales, i.e., the loan is created, but it’s just an accounting trick.

          1. Not just GDP, but sales taxes too. Lucky Lopez, who runs a used car dealership, says that most sales taxes are from car sales. It’s a large transaction compared to daily shopping at WalMart.

          2. How often do you buy a car? But I suppose that if car sales tank that there would be a serious sales tax slump.

      2. because they think this is just a short term spike in interest rates. Unfortunately for them, the Fed has backed itself into a corner this time, with inflation and a BRICS challenger that will no longer allow it to throw money from helicopters.

        2. To be fair, a lot of other countries, including some BRICS, do the helicopter thing too.

          1. Other countries have bought our debt because we were the world’s reserve currency. Losing that status means no more money printing because no one is going to buy it.

          2. This whole debt ceiling kabuki theater is about the uniparty giving the Federal Reserve the green light to print more money by issuing bonds.

            Please correct me if I’m wrong about this!

          3. if I’m wrong

            Not wrong, just short of the point I think.

            Anyone who is for increasing the debt is a profiteer, grifter, thief and a liar. We’ve got them up to our eyeballs.

          4. most of their currency is simply trash than can go bust overnight. it’s quite common to see inflation in 100% range in those currencies. the problem with the US is that the FED kind of did it this time. you can fool everyone once in a while, or you can full one guy all the time, but you can’t full everybody all the time.

            US was gaining 2-3% every year by simply devaluing the dollar at that rate and shaving 3% from every saver’s account on the planet. And people in poor contrives really save. they save a lot. a lot more that us citizens. and they were ok with that 2%-3% because their currencies are trash, and gold, as much as sense as it would make, is really hard to store and you expose yourself to criminals. hard to store valuables in a vault unless you are rich or in a developed country.

            but even there, how many vaults do you know around your town? not the bank’s, but real ones. never store anything in a bank vault. I had my own chilling experience with those. and a private one closed from under my nose. had to give back the keys within a month. good luck with storing those valuables…

            anyway, US, after shaving 2-3%, out of sudden decided that it wasn’t enough, and that’s a real good idea to use other people’s savings to pay for the US government needs. they imagined that those were just too dumb to realize. and many were, but now they kind of figured it out, and are a lot less inclined to accept the dollar.

            In a away, when US prints, someone else needs to work hard and send back the goodies. and those guys were like…well… not so sure about that paper. and if I take it, I want a lot more of it.

            If any other country would have done the obscene amount of printing the US did, their currency would have devalued by 50%-70% a year. US was lucky to have had that status and a lot of money stashed in mattresses around the globe. but keep the printer running hot, and those money will all come back to flood the us market. and that’s hyperinflation.

          6. Europeans during turmoil used to bury their valuables in the ground, hoping to return someday to retrieve them. Sadly, many did not, and metal detectorists find on a regular basis collections of precious metals and coins, wrapped in burlap and stuffed into pottery often no more than several inches underground, where they lay buried and forgotten about for, many times, a thousand years.

    3. builders are offering mortgage rate buy-downs

      It’s not just builders. I heard from an associate yesterday who bought a 3rd house with a rate buydown. The speculators are still out there.

    4. Voters were easily conned into repealing the Gallagher amendment, which transferred a non trivial percentage of the property tax burden from commercial to residential. Now they are up in arms over this year’s property tax increase.

      I does no good to explain to them that they voted for this. They will insist that the TeeVee ads promised that the tax increase would be small and that it was “for the children”.

      Tell them that the government issued voter’s guide which was mailed to every voter explained that the increases would be non trivial and you get a blank stare. I’m guessing the guide goes straight into the recycling bin when it arrives.

      I’m sure TABOR is next in the Dems gunsights. They are going to put prop HH on the ballot, labelling it as the property tax relief bill. It offers no relief. If approved, it allows the state government to raid the TABOR refund to provide “the relief”. If they can get that passed, then they will go in for the kill and try to repeal TABOR.

  11. No “pent-up demand” for $800,000 starter houses happening here:

    “It was probably going to happen anyway, but the debt-ceiling deal struck between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy spells the end of the student debt repayment moratorium.

    The White House had extended that moratorium until two months after the Supreme Court rules on its $400 billion loan forgiveness plan — which, in all likelihood, means after August. But the debt-ceiling deal, assuming Congress approves it, eliminates the possibility that the student loan repayment moratorium can be extended.

    Simons added it will be a problem for a significant number of household budgets, given that no payments have been required since the beginning of the pandemic. “Households have already been eating into their excess savings to maintain their preferred consumption in the face of high inflation. This suggests that it is very likely that most households that were previously making student loan payments have not been saving the extra money or including the payments in their budgets,” he added.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/debt-ceiling-deal-seals-end-to-student-debt-moratorium-a-nearly-400-per-month-shock-to-budgets-3a92acef?mod=home-page

  12. How much of this is from the last year buying FOOD?

    “America’s credit card balance has passed $1 trillion, or it’s about to, depending on whom you ask.

    A typical American household now carries $10,000 in credit card debt, by one estimate, another record.

    If that doesn’t sound like a lot of debt, try paying it off. At $250 per month, with 24 percent interest, you’ll be making payments until 2030, and you’ll spend a total of $20,318, twice what you owed. And that assumes you never use the card again.

    “It’s hard to build wealth when you’re paying 20 percent interest every month,” said Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com.

    https://thehill.com/business/personal-finance/4023009-americans-owe-1-trillion-in-credit-card-debt/

    1. buying FOOD

      It’s hard to voluntarily reduce one’s own standard of living to stay solvent. It is better done early.

    1. BRICS challenger that will no longer allow it to throw money from helicopters

      At some point they will be insolvent and will disappear.

  15. Not only was his money gone, but Kwok would soon find out that Simpson hadn’t even been authorized to sell the properties he thought he was buying.”

    It would take a heart of stone to read about these greedy speculators getting fleeced, and not laugh.

  16. Looking back in retrospect, they socially engineered everything.
    For instance, in my youth people didnt go to Doctors all the time, but than the Employers started offering cheap medical insurance as a perk of the job. Get the people into a dependency on Big Pharmacy.Than it morphed into Commie Obamacare where your charged by how much income you have. And of course the Covid mandated vaccines and medical tyranny. . Not public health, profit for fake emergencies.
    When I was young, people didnt like to go into debt, but social engineering into crazy debt, and crazy speculation.
    And now Biden signs TREATY, with 195 Countries, ,to transfer Power to United Nations and WHO to override US Constitution, for whatever the corrupt WHO wants to do or mandate..

    Puppet Biden signed Treaty without approval of Congress, and it violates the 14th Amendment and other rights. …
    The corrupt WHO is a puppet for WEF, the CCP, and guys like Bill Gates. .

    Already in Europe they are pushing bugs, 15 minute cities, digital currency, and all that One World Order wants operative by 2030, their stupid timeline.
    The Innsurrection by these Powers to take over the World, by false narratives and force is clear now…
    No compliance with this insane agenda…

  17. “The Money Pit” starring Tom Hanks and Shelley Long.

    Get out of the pod, and into the pit.

  18. A old friend called me other day complaining about how insane conditions are on so many levels.
    It’s not designed to be sane, stable, logical, fair and just, responsible, safe, prudent , thriving ,productive, healthy , moral, creative, free, humane, fiduciary, respectful , or true.
    But, it could be that way.

    1. It could be but it is almost impossible to have a reasonable conversation with most people about it today. I think at some point we will start to see various movements that attempt to completely break away from the status quo but serious consequences have to be felt first.

    2. One of the best speakers on the subject of DEI, WOKEism, ESG and the general intrusion of marxism and this gnostic thinking is from Dr. James Lindsay. Please do watch any and all of his lectures.

      It is hard to destroy or fight an enemy that you cannot define. He helps define the enemy as well as how the enemy thinks and operates.

          1. And fails to recognize the underpinning ideology, motivation and control mechanism.

          2. recognize the underpinning ideology, motivation and control mechanism

            Safety first. Complexity second.

  19. This is a long and detailed thread. What stood out to me the most was:

    “Another Patriot battery was destroyed as a result of missile attacks on Kiev. 3 x Patriot batteries were sent to Ukraine, two of which were destroyed within a few weeks.

    Russia detects a Patriot battery and launches standard cruise missiles with electronic and satellite reconnaissance. Then a hypersonic missile is launched towards the battery.

    When the battery commander sees that the rocket is more advanced than they can destroy, he begins to randomly launch all 32 missiles of the battery, and immediately after that the battery is destroyed.

    Thus, probably, today there was a loss of at least 2 billion dollars, and the previous losses amounted to 5 billion dollars.”

    https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-52923-kiev-rocked-as-new-satellite

    It’s time to negotiate peace and stop all of this.

    2. The majority of our ‘leaders’ think this is the best money we’ve ever spent and voting clearly is not going to fix that. Hopefully the hypersonic missiles don’t start landing here.

      1. If they ever do come here the swamp will be their first target.

        It might be like in the movie Mars Attacks! The American People will watch DC being destroyed and laugh.

      2. the majority of our ‘leaders’ think this is the best money we’ve ever spent

        Because they’re getting something in the process.

    3. “Another Patriot battery was destroyed as a result of missile attacks on Kiev. 3 x Patriot batteries were sent to Ukraine, two of which were destroyed within a few weeks.”

      Stay away from the Patriot batteries, they hate these Patriot batteries!

      https://youtu.be/rlVVWImGd9E

  20. From Crain’s New York:

    Former Signature Bank director says the federal law he helped write played a key role in the lender’s demise

  21. ‘prices have fallen to levels that haven’t been seen in 15 to 20 years in certain asset classes … and yet there is still an intense reluctance to buy as investors wait for absolute bottom’

    That’s the spirit!

    ‘Now my stock portfolio books a loss of about 90%,’ said Meng, a Shanghai local in his 40s who gave only his surname. He previously used to eagerly subscribe to new listings, hoping for a first-day price surge. ‘I can do nothing but wait ’till it turns black’

    Ennio Morricone – the ecstasy of gold
    theItalyWiki
    Dec 24, 2010
    Ennio Morricone conducting his own composition, “The Ecstasy of Gold” from the film, “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKFpaCMRWgU

    3:44.

    1. Somebody needs to ask ChatGPT to compose “The Ecstasy of Bitcoin.” I don’t think any humans will do it.

      1. ask ChatGPT

        Here’s a thought: Just say no! Just because you can doesn’t mean you should.

    1. This “rental demand” piece reminds me of hotel prices, which are adjusted based on demand, e.g., an event or holiday weekend vs a regular weekday.

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      https://www.amazon.com/Karambit-Black-Emerson-Wave-Folding/dp/B07F931FXQ

        1. “The Marines would have been arrested and charged with ridiculous crimes”

          A slash above the knee would be a mobility kill and would hold up as self defence in any court the Soros DAs could send them to.

          I doubt if it would have taken more than 3 to make the other 37 scatter like the cowards they certainly are.

  25. Would you buy a home where the fire risk is so grave that insurers won’t offer you insurance at any cost?

    Seems rather like the financial version of Russian roulette…

    1. wildfires
      May 30, 2023
      California Is Becoming Uninsurable
      By Alissa Walker, a Curbed senior writer
      Photo: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

      State Farm will no longer provide home insurance to new California customers, the company announced on Friday, citing “historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market.” In other words, it’s getting too expensive to rebuild homes lost to the state’s increasingly destructive wildfires. And the largest property-insurance company in the country retreating from the country’s largest property-insurance market isn’t just an inconvenience for potential homeowners — it’s a sign of what’s to come.

      Over the past five years, wildfires have destroyed 25,000 homes in the state; in 2018, the most devastating year on record, Californians filed $11.7 billion in wildfire-related claims. But even when homeowners manage to avoid the flames, they often emerge from disaster only to learn their properties are no longer covered. This phenomenon, called “nonrenewal,” has recently become a problem for mansion-studded, fire-prone communities like Montecito, but it’s also happening in less-wealthy places like Paradise, where the Camp Fire destroyed 90 percent of the town’s homes five years ago. The state has tried to help by creating its own high-risk insurer, offering financial help to build more fire-resistant homes, and announcing new real-estate guidance urging local governments to put mitigation efforts in place to avoid financially calamitous situations for homeowners. (This ends up saving taxpayers money, too: When a neighborhood goes up in flames, the rest of the state shoulders the costs.) But the ultimate solution that would save lives and homes has been a political third rail: The state should simply not allow people to live in high-fire-risk areas in the first place.
      …
      https://www.curbed.com/2023/05/state-farm-california-insurance-climate-change.html

  26. We’re #1 — woot hoot!

    So it wasn’t just my imagination that housing here is insanely unaffordable…and hence we have a large unhoused population who threw in the towel on the monthly payments concept.

    1. 7 of the 10 Most Expensive Cities to Live in the U.S. Are in One State A new report by U.S. News found that San Diego is the most expensive city to live in for 2023-2024, followed by Los Angeles. New York City didn’t even rank in the top 10.
      By Madeline Garfinkle • May 30, 2023

      Rampant inflation over the past year has driven up the cost of living — and a tight housing market that has caused rent prices to surge doesn’t exactly help. However, some American cities are more expensive than others, and if you’re looking to save, it’s best to reconsider whether these 10 cities are in your budget or not.

      According to a new report from U.S. News, seven of the top 10 most expensive cities to live in for 2023-2024 are in California. San Diego came in at No. 1, receiving a value rating (how comfortably residents can live within their means in a metropolitan area) of 3.3. The average median home price in San Diego was $889,225 in 2021 — nearly triple the national average of $365,616.

      Los Angeles was ranked the second-most-expensive city to live in with the same value rating of 3.3, followed by Honolulu (3.6), Miami (3.6) and Santa Barbara (3.8). Despite New York City historically being one of the most expensive places to reside, the Big Apple didn’t even make it in the top 10 (it was ranked No. 11 with a value rating of 4.3).
      …
      https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/these-are-the-most-expensive-cities-to-live-in-for-2023-2024/453132

      1. “The average median home price in San Diego was $889,225 in 2021 — nearly triple the national average of $365,616.”

        It would have been more dramatic to cherry pick the May 2022 Housing Bubble 2.0 peak price. I don’t have the number handy, but I know the prices of homes in our area went from the $800s range early in the pandemic to well north of $1 million before beginning their descent back to earth a year ago.

      2. Despite San Diego’s out-migration, I suspect we had a sizeable in-migration of people fleeing San Francisco and Los Angeles since COVID. Hence, the current price level.

        1. Don’t forget the ‘immigrants’. They generally dream of two things when making their plans; NYC and Baywatch. San Diego looks just like one of them and is so conveniently located to a welcoming border.

  27. The Financial Times
    Jamie Dimon warns ‘uncertainty’ caused by Beijing could hit investor confidence
    JPMorgan chair is in Shanghai at a conference attended by several US executives
    Jamie Dimon, chair of JPMorgan
    Jamie Dimon raised concerns over ‘scary’ youth unemployment figures in China
    FT reporters 3 hours ago

    JPMorgan chair Jamie Dimon has warned that “uncertainty” caused in part by the Chinese government could hit investor confidence, as fresh data showed the recovery of the world’s second-largest economy was slowing.

    “If you have more uncertainty, somewhat caused by the Chinese government . . . it’s not just going to change foreign direct investment,” said Dimon in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “It’s going to change the people here, their own confidence.”

    Dimon, speaking in Shanghai at a banking conference hosted by JPMorgan, pointed to “scary” youth unemployment figures, which at more than 20 per cent in May reached their highest level since records began in 2019.

    “They [China] need growth, too. And confidence is very important for growth,” said Dimon.

    His comments come against a backdrop of worsening relations between the US and China, which is struggling to revive economic growth. On Wednesday, fresh economic data showing a contraction in China’s factory activity cast further doubt over the country’s growth prospects and hit regional equity markets.

    The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 48.8 for May, compared with 49.2 in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Economists said several months of manufacturing readings below 50, which indicates a contraction, would lead the government to consider stimulus policies to support the economy.
    …

    1. JPMorgan chair is in Shanghai at a conference attended by several US executives

      How convenient. Via ZH, Epstein Pal Jes Staley Throws Jamie Dimon Under The Bus, Setting Stage For Massive Legal Battle.

  28. The Financial Times
    Federal Reserve
    Top Fed official sees no ‘compelling’ reason to wait for fresh rate rise
    Debt-ceiling deal removes ‘big piece of uncertainty’ over US economy, says
    Loretta Mester
    ‘We’re getting to the real hard part here of how we assess trade-offs’
    Colby Smith in Washington yesterday

    A top official at the Federal Reserve said there was no “compelling” reason to wait before implementing another interest rate rise should economic data confirm that more must be done to bring US inflation under control.

    In an interview with the Financial Times, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, pushed back against recent suggestions from some policymakers who argued the US central bank should forego a rate rise at its next meeting in June.

    “I don’t really see a compelling reason to pause — meaning wait until you get more evidence to decide what to do,” she said. “I would see more of a compelling case for bringing [rates] up . . . and then holding for a while until you get less uncertain about where the economy is going.”
    …

  29. Percentage of Homesellers Offering Concessions to Buyers Rises
    By Nina Korman –
    May 30, 2023

    According to a new report from Redfin, home sellers gave concessions to buyers in 42.9% of U.S. home sales during the three months ending April 30, up from 25.5% a year. That’s just shy of the 45.6% record high hit in February.

    The share of home sellers providing concessions – which include money toward repairs, closing costs and mortgage-rate buydowns – has inched down from February’s peak due to typical seasonality. Concessions become less common in the early spring because that’s when more buyers typically enter the market, increasing competition and giving sellers more power. But this spring, concessions posted a smaller decline than the last two years because high mortgage rates have made it so sellers in cool markets need to take extra measures to woo and secure buyers.

    The likelihood of a seller giving a concession dropped 6% from February to April, compared with 18% drops during the same period in 2021 and 2022. This spring’s smaller drop corresponds with less homebuyer competition.

    Sellers are throwing in freebies to woo buyers at a higher frequency than last year for several reasons. Many house hunters have put their buying plans on hold because of rising mortgage rates. Although prices have fallen 4% from a year ago, that’s not enough to offset the cost of higher rates, with monthly mortgage payments at a record high. Lack of supply is also dampening demand, with fewer people listing their homes for sale as they hold onto comparatively low mortgage rates.

    Many people who are listing their homes are moving because they need to, possibly due to a divorce or a new job in a different state. Those sellers may be willing to provide concessions to prompt a quick sale of their home.

    It is also notable that homebuilding surged during the pandemic. Builders tried to capitalize on the moving frenzy, especially in pandemic homebuying hotspots like Tampa and Nashville, where 58% and 49% of sellers gave concessions to homebuyers. Now that rising rates have pushed many buyers out of the market, builders are trying to sell their backlog of inventory by offering perks like money toward closing costs, gift cards and even free cars.
    …
    https://mortgageorb.com/redfin-percentage-of-homesellers-offering-concessions-to-buyers-rises

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