The Rapid Deceleration Of Demand
A report from MarketWatch. "Shares of home builders TRI Pointe Group and William Lyon Homes were took a dive Thursday, after Wedbush Securities analyst Jay McCanless cut his ratings, citing the 'rapid' deceleration of demand in the companies’ key markets. 'The rapid deceleration in housing demand for California and Seattle...this summer requires a more conservative earnings outlook on our part,' McCanless wrote in a note to clients. 'Both markets have exhibited a rapid slowdown in unit sales and in home price appreciation. We do not see a near-term positive catalyst to reverse either trend.'"
From Bloomberg. "Valuations on once sizzling Chinese home-appliance stocks have come down to levels that may interest some investors, though that’s unlikely to drive a rebound due to the long shadow the slowing property market casts over the sector. The fortunes of companies that make air conditioners, freezers and other household appliances are closely tied to property sales."
"The likes of Qingdao Haier Co and Gree Electric Appliances Inc saw their shares surge over the past couple of years, as China’s housing market boomed, only to fall off the rails in 2018, as the government tightened controls to ward off a crash. The outlook for developers remains gloomy, which is bad news for appliance makers."
"'The low valuations reflect investors’ pessimistic expectations over home sales as some consumer discretionary names are closely tied with the property market,' said Wang Chen, Shanghai-based partner with XuFunds Investment Management Co. 'That kind of pessimism may persist over the next two to three years, weighing on appliance stocks.'"
"Gree and Qingdao Haier had been out of favor despite trading near the cheapest in more than 19 months, while Midea Group Co has lost US$24 billion in value since hitting a record high in late January. Household goods account for about half the weighting of a gauge of consumer discretionary stocks on the CSI 300 Index that has dropped 16% in three months, more than three times the benchmark’s slide."
"'They’re mainly dragged by the bearish outlook for the property industry,' said Shen Li, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence in Hong Kong. 'The sector had abnormally fast growth in the past year or so along with China’s real estate sales, and that’s not sustainable.'"
From Scotsman Guide Media. "In its latest forecast, Fannie Mae predicted that the U.S. economy had peaked in the second quarter in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and would slow gradually going foward, in part driven by flat home sales. Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan discussed the outlook, and what has been ailing the housing market."
"Q: You mention that housing has been a drag on GDP. What has been the problem there?"
"A: Two months ago, we said it looks to us like housing may have plateaued. This month we repeated that, and also said that it looked to us that the house-price appreciation rate peaked in 2017, and the pace of appreciation will slow in 2018. If you are going to sell a house, house-price appreciation has helped you accumulate equity. However, it is a bad time to buy a house. If you turn around and buy that house, you are going to give all that equity to the person you bought the house from. What did you really gain?"
"So, what we have seen is a slowdown in sales, we believe, in part, because of that dynamic. That aligns with the number of existing homes offered for sale being at 30-year lows relative to the number of households in the country. When you look at the millennial portion of our survey, it looks to us like they are saying, 'You know what, house-price appreciation has been so strong. With this bit of an interest rate rise, even if we could stretch to afford, we saw what happened last time when people stretched to afford. Maybe it is time for us to take a breath, and wait for things to price a little more rationally.' I believe that is the story underlying the slowdown."