Everybody Is Concerned About Saying This Time Is Different
A report from WTOP on Virginia. "The number of homes sold in Northern Virginia in September was down almost 12 percent from a year earlier, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. 'If a home is not in tip-top shape, it is sitting,' said Gary Lange with Weichert Realty in Vienna. 'Sellers are trying to get top spring market prices and that just isn’t going to happen in fall and winter months.'"
"Lange said he’s seen instances of buyers keeping a home on their radar, and then pounce on it with other potential buyers when the seller decides to lower the price. A price reduction often triggers multiple offers and can actually benefit the seller in the end."
From the Wall Street Journal. "The U.S. housing market is running out of steam, but its slowdown looks nothing like the historic collapse that took down the whole economy in 2007. The good news is compared to a decade ago the housing market doesn’t have far to fall."
"As frenzied as the market has felt in recent years, with bidding wars and double-digit price increases, it never came close to the level of the last boom by most measures. That positions it for a much gentler slowdown, economists say."
"'Everybody, including me, is concerned about saying this time is different,' said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan."
"Unlike the last downturn, average home prices don’t usually fall nationally, even during recessions. The next slowdown is likely to mark a return to that historical pattern."
The Denver Post in Colorado. "Signs that the housing markets along the northern Front Range are cooling may leave some buyers fearful of buying at the top and getting stuck with price declines."
"Location Inc. offers some advice for the next five years based on its Scout Vision computer model: Stay away from Boulder, expect to take a hit on prices of around 10 percent in Fort Collins and metro Denver, and if appreciation matters, buy in Greeley."
"We still predict that the market will go down, more in some markets than in others,' said Andrew Schiller, CEO of the Connecticut-based analytics firm."
"The model looks at dozens of variables, but one of the most important is affordability –- to what degree can incomes support home values. Along the Front Range, homes prices have never been more misaligned with incomes, Schiller said."
"So far, migration has delayed the day of reckoning, Schiller said. People have moved here from more expensive markets, helping push up prices. But that will taper off, especially as the economy contracts."
"'You need enough earned income in a market to support the costs of houses,' Schiller said. 'You can’t always support it from people carrying a black bag of money from other places.'"
From the Oklahoman. "The Oklahoma City Metro Association of Realtors and other Realtor groups across the country sent this out this week: 'Some economy observers are pointing to 2018 as the final period in a long string of sentences touting several happy years of buyer demand and sales excitement for the housing industry. Although residential real estate should continue along a mostly positive line for the rest of the year, rising prices and interest rates coupled with salary stagnation and a generational trend toward home purchase delay or even disinterest could create an environment of declining sales.'"