A report from Cory Doctorow on New York. "New York real estate is valuable because of the people who want to live there because of the vibrancy of the city -- but as the city is choked off from real activity, the value of the real-estate begins to fall. And once the fall starts, it accelerates: as with all bubbles, a crisis of faith in the market precipitates a panicked sell-off, which deepens the crisis."

"That dynamic is playing out in New York today: September 2018 sales volume is down 39% from September 2017, with prices dropping by 9%; for every ten $10m+ home on the market, one sells (the ration is actually probably worse -- developers are keeping 'ghost inventory' off the books to make the figures look better). There is a ton of super-lux property about to enter the market: 9 skyscrapers this year, and 20 more by 2020."

"Garrett Derderian of Stribling thinks the real number is more like 1:15, since, he claims, developers have been lowballing their supply numbers, mindful that a full picture will send prices falling further. 'They are holding back homes that they would otherwise be actively marketing, and which would therefore show up in inventory figures,' he says. Inventory figures are being 'significantly manipulated' by the practice of excluding this so-called shadow inventory, according to Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel Inc."

"Prices for super prime homes have been falling steadily. 'In the market north of $10m, you’re seeing prices off anywhere from 10 to 30 per cent from the peak in 2014,' says Miller."

From Mansion Global on New York. "Manhattan’s rental market saw the number of new leases signed plummet almost 30% in September, according to Thursday’s report from New York City brokerage Douglas Elliman. 'Our September results show that even small increases in asking rents have an impact on demand—and tenants comparison-shop between buildings and neighborhoods like never before,' said Gary Malin, president of Citi Habitats in the report."

"'The rise of car- and bike-sharing services, as well as the expanded ferry system, has caused many New Yorkers to consider more affordable areas that were once off the beaten path. In the rental market, the old adage of ‘location, location, location,’ has been replaced with ‘price, price, price,’ Mr. Malin said."