Now The Market Has Been Flipped On Its Head
A report from Mansion Global on New York. "The impact of the dearth of new development transactions was felt most in the Financial District and Battery Park City, which saw sales plummet 41% compared to the same time last year, while median prices dropped 22% to $960,000, according to Corcoran. 'We are experiencing one of the most pronounced Q3 slowdowns in nearly 10 years,' wrote Elizabeth Stribling-Kivlan, Stribling & Associates’s president, in the report. In fact, it was the worst performing third quarter since the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the report said."
"Transaction numbers were further dragged down by huge declines in new-development sales. New condo closings fell around 40% according to Corcoran, Halstead and Brown Harris Stevens, and by 21.9%, according to Douglas Elliman."
From CNBC. "Prices fell, inventory jumped and discounts were higher and more common. Real estate brokers say the Manhattan real estate market is suffering from an oversupply of luxury units, a decline in foreign buyers and changes in the tax law that make it more expensive to own property in high-tax states."
"There is now a seven-month supply of apartments, up from five months in the third quarter of 2017. While the top of the Manhattan market has been under pressure for over a year, the third quarter added a new problem: stress in the market for entry-level apartments."
"Most of the growth in inventory in Manhattan in the third quarter was in studio and one-bedroom apartments, said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel. About half of Manhattan real estate is purchased with cash and half with mortgages. Since a majority of entry-level apartments are purchased with mortgages, sales fell with rising interest rates."
"'Before, it was the top of the market that was weak and the bottom was strong,' Miller said. 'Now the market has been flipped on its head.'"
"But the high end also continues to come under pressure from the supply of new condo towers being built in Manhattan —many of which have been pulled off the official market and are now sitting idle as 'shadow inventory' that will keep a lid on prices."
"The average sales price in Manhattan's luxury market — the top 10 percent by sales price — dropped 12 percent in the quarter and inventory soared by 27 percent. Sales of new development fell by 22 percent."
"Miller said that overall sales levels and prices are still on the higher side or 'right in the middle' of their historical averages. But he said that after the parabolic peaks in 2014 and 2015, a correction was inevitable."
From Business Insider. "Until recently, it was mostly buyers in Manhattan's luxury housing market who were spoiled for choice. The aggressive price cuts and vacancies in the priciest apartments that cost over $1 million have been well documented."
"But even the cheapest homes are now struggling to sell, according to a report by Douglas Elliman Real Estate. It showed the number of sales fell for a fourth-straight quarter, by 11%, during the July-September period on a year-over-year basis."
"The lower end of the market is starting to soften, too, and this represents a reset taking place, according to Jonathan Miller, CEO of the real-estate appraiser Miller Samuel and author of the report."
"'Soft at the top is still there,' Miller told Business Insider. 'It's just that we are starting to see softness at the starter end of the market, and that's relatively new.'"
"The availability of housing by apartment size helps to tell the story of buyers' reluctance (or inability) to settle for prevailing prices. Inventories rose by about 21% year-on-year for one-bedroom apartments. But that rate slowed to 8% for two-bedrooms, and 5% for four-beds, Miller said. This trend, Miller said, ran counter to the last couple of years when more buyers pounced on smaller and cheaper apartments."
"New York is just one of several large US cities where buyers are getting more deal-savvy because prices have soared. Nationally, home prices have climbed above their pre-crisis level and at a faster rate than wages. That's hurting would-be buyers; monthly existing-home sales have failed to cross the 5.72 million level reached in November 2017."
"'Existing home sales have peaked,' US economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note last week, adding that affordability largely explained the slowdown."
"What this means is that buyers who are more patient in their hunt might just find a homeowner who will budge. According to StreetEasy, the number of home sellers who cut their asking prices reached its highest level since 2009 during the week after Labor Day."