Sellers Cling To False Hope That Someone Will Pay Their Yesterday Price
A report from the Santa Cruz Sentinel in California. "The California housing market posted its largest annual sales decline since March 2014 in September, as home sales fell below the 400,000-level benchmark for the second consecutive month. This indicates that the market is slowing as potential buyers appear to be putting their homeownership plans on hold, according to the California Association of Realtors."
"Sales in the San Francisco Bay Area declined 16.4 percent from September 2017, the largest decline since October 2010. Santa Clara County posted the largest drop at 22.6 percent. Home sales there were down 22.2 percent from August."
"Other counties experiencing year-over-year double-digit sales declines were Sonoma (-19.4 percent), Solano (-19.3 percent), Contra Costa (-17.3 percent), San Mateo (-14.6 percent), Napa (-14.2 percent), San Francisco (-11.5 percent), and Alameda (-10.4 percent)."
"Statewide active listings rose for the sixth consecutive month, increasing 20.4 percent from the previous year. September’s listings increase was the biggest in nearly four years. The Bay Area had the largest increase in active listings, with a surge of 44 percent year over year. In Santa Clara County, active listings more than doubled (+113 percent) from September last year."
"'We’ve always said real estate is a cycle and while we’re not concerned about a downturn, this shift in the market indicates buyers may have more negotiating power now than a year ago,' said Bill Moody, president of the Silicon Valley Association of Realtors. At the same time, Moody cautions about timing the market. 'The time to buy or sell is the right time for you, what’s best for your situation and for you family,' said Moody."
The Orange County Register. "Southern California house sales fell in September by the biggest rate since the depths of the Great Recession, the latest housing report by the California Association of Realtors shows."
"Sales of existing single-family homes fell 17.6 percent from September 2017 in the five-county Los Angeles metro area, the biggest annual percentage drop since October 2010, CAR reported Monday, Oct. 22. The drop was the state’s biggest, with Los Angeles County house sales falling 22 percent."
"In Orange County, sales fell 21.8 percent. Riverside and San Bernardino counties recorded an annual sales decline of 9.7 percent and 12.4 percent, respectively. Statewide, house sales fell 12.4 percent in September, which was California’s biggest year-over-year sales decline since March 2014, CAR reported."
"CAR President Steve White also attributed sales drops to federal tax cuts adopted late last year, which make homeownership less advantageous by capping property tax deductions and reducing the amount of mortgage interest that can be deducted from federal income taxes."
"'The housing market continued to deteriorate, and the decline in sales worsened as interest rates remained on an upward trend,' White said."
The Mountain Democrat. "The California Association of Realtors recently published its forecast for the 2019 California real estate market. It’s a little scary. It’s also early."
"Most housing economists wait until November or December before they start forecasting what’s in store for the upcoming year. CAR’s early forecast reflects its confidence in their 2019 predictions regardless of what happens during the next few months."
"When Realtors say there will be a slight adjustment in the market, it’s time to take cover. The last time CAR’s yearly prediction said there would be a 'minor correction,' property values fell like a rock. Looking back to 2007, no one was predicting anything but a 'soft landing' for property values."
"When property values are increasing, it’s a good time to sell and when they are decreasing, a good time to buy. It’s all good. When CAR publishes their forecast stating 'a modest decline in existing home sales' everyone should duck and cover."
"The California real estate market has become victim of its own success. Property values have climbed too high, too fast, for too many. Home values have been appreciating across the state between 7 and 8 percent yearly."
"In El Dorado County our year-to-date median selling price on 2,300 home sales has been $500,000. Last year the median selling price was $457,000. That 9.5 percent increase cannot be sustained without a corresponding increase in personal income."
"Five years ago the state’s median selling price was $425,000 and the median statewide household income was $57,000. Today our statewide median selling price is $600,000 and household income $70,000. Income has increased 22 percent while home prices have jumped 47 percent. At some price point buyers give up and wait."
"It will take a year for sellers to discover that the market has changed and begin serious adjustments in their asking price. Until then, buyers will cautiously wait on the sidelines. Sellers are naturally reluctant to adjust their price expectations. They cling to false hope that someone will pay their 'yesterday' price."
"Following a declining market is a poor investment strategy for sellers. It’s best to exit early at today’s market price than to hold while the market continues its descent, finally selling at a lower price."