Helping Pull The Prices Down
A report from the Houston Chronicle in Texas. "Even as mortgage rates climb in the coming years, they are likely to remain historically low. But that won’t matter to many homeowners who might be considering buying new digs. 'If you already have a perfectly good home that’s on a 30-year, 3.2 percent mortgage, that makes it tough to move up,' Lawrence Dean, regional director of Metrostudy, said Thursday during a market briefing to builders. 'And move up is what we always, as an industry, want people to do.'"
"Dean cited rising rates as one of the reasons builders are reporting slightly slower sales and traffic to the consulting firm, which surveys builders and housing starts each quarter. Since around August, builders have reported some level of sales and traffic declines, along with increased cancellation rates, Dean said. Even so, he did not seem in a panic."
"Dean said a 2,800-square-foot house in Sienna Plantation could be purchased in 2006 for around $240,000. A similar house today has been sold for $340,000. That’s a 42 percent increase, while the median household income in Fort Bend County increased by 22 percent during that period. 'That dynamic can’t be understated in terms of looking at any kind of sales slowdown we may be experiencing,' Dean said."
The Crozet Gazette in Virginia. "For the second quarter in a row, the headline news in the Crozet real estate market is the pace of sales. Or more specifically, the lack of it. In the second quarter of 2018 Crozet (defined by properties in the Brownsville and Crozet school districts) sales dropped almost 27 percent year to year. The third quarter experienced a similar decline, dropping 28 percent from 105 sales in the 3rd quarter of 2017, to just 76 sales in the past quarter."
"There is much discussion among real estate professionals and home owners/buyers alike regarding the sales slowdown in Crozet. Rising new construction prices certainly has something to do with it, being a function of rising land and material costs. This has helped fuel the rise in resale pricing, which has led in some neighborhoods to a relative glut in resale offerings."
"So, is the market reversing from a 'sellers' market to a 'buyers' market? Data would suggest so."
From Crain's Chicago Business in Illinois. "Sales of newly built homes in the Chicago area were moderately ahead of last year's total at the end of the third quarter, but some of the increase came because of builders' price cuts, according to a new report."
"At the end of September, sales of new homes were up three percent from the same period in 2017, according to the report from Tracy Cross & Associates, a Schaumburg consulting firm for the real estate industry. Builders sold 3,154 new homes in the first nine months of the year, Cross reports, compared to 3,062 in the first three quarters of 2017."
"Cross tracks sales in developments that have 10 units or more, which means its data does not include houses built singly or in small numbers in infill locations in the city and suburbs. The median price of new homes that sold dropped below $350,000 in the second and third quarters of the year, for the first time since mid-2006."
"'That's from builders trying to gain some momentum,' said Erik Doersching, executive vice president at Tracy Cross. They were trying to 'reverse a rather sluggish beginning to 2018, when year-over-year sales were down seven percent,' the published report says."
"Some price cuts don't come in a dollar-figure reduction but in the addition of incentives, such as throwing in a higher level of finishes or a heated garage, at a price that did not formerly include them."
"Also contributing to a lower median price, Doersching said, is that some formerly distressed developments in the southwest suburbs, where prices are generally lower than in other parts of the homebuilding region, have come back on the market under new owners. Sales there 'are helping pull the prices down,' he said, but price cuts are the primary culprit."
From The Real Deal. "Realogy Holdings’ revenue was flat during the third quarter while transaction volume rose just 1 percent, which executives on Friday attributed to the national housing slowdown."
"Shares of Realogy were down more than 10 percent just minutes after the market opened at 9:30 a.m., reflecting concerns about a sustained market downturn. Realogy’s shares are down around 40 percent year-over-year."
"'We are clearly in a volatile period for the housing market,' CEO Ryan Schneider said during an earnings call with investors. Offering a preview of the rest of this year, he said Realogy’s companywide transaction volume was down 6 percent in October, although prices were up 5 percent."
"'We’re seeing mixed signals,' Schneider conceded, but he stressed that the slowdown does not feel the same as it did a decade ago during the great recession. 'We are heartened by the increase in inventory,' he noted, the lack of which has been a key factor in fewer sales."
"During the third quarter, Realogy said the West Coast saw the 'greatest market deterioration,' with sales volume down 2 percent (compared to a 13 percent jump during the first quarter.) The Northeast was down 1 percent, largely because of a slowdown in New York City, but the drop was still better than a 9 percent slide during the first quarter."
"Despite softness in New York City, the sale of properties priced above $2.5 million actually rose 4 percent during the quarter. 'The high-end is performing very differently than other parts of the market,' said CFO Tony Hull."