More Of A Seller Panicking Market
A report from KGW 8 in Oregon. "The Portland real estate market has been sizzling hot for years, but now it seems to be slowing down just a little. Real estate broker Michelle Maida said the market typically slows down this time of year, but right now it is slower than usual. It is not just Portland, Seattle is feeling it too. 'It is a trend we're seeing nationally, it definitely is,' Maida explained."
"Maida would not call this a buyers’ market, but said sellers are feeling the pressure. 'I call this more of a seller panicking market because they're not getting what their neighbors got nine months ago on their house,' Maida said. 'But it's going to be ok, it's a cycle.'"
"Maida said prices are still going up, but so are interest rates which means home buyers cannot spend as much. The higher interest rates means people have less buying power. She also said sellers are not seeing multiple offers like they have in the past."
"'It's a longer time on the market,' Maida said. 'We see less multiple offers unless you have a $350,000 house that's totally done out you're probably not going to see a multiple offer in this market right now.'"
From Realtor.com. "The realtor.com® economic research team analyzed a wealth of housing data to come up with a forecast of what 2019 might hold for home buyers and sellers—and it looks like both groups are going to be facing some challenges."
"We're expecting to see the biggest increases in high-end inventory in the metro areas of San Jose, CA; Seattle, WA; Worcester, MA; Boston, MA; and Nashville, TN. All of those metro markets, which may include neighboring towns, could see double-digit gains in inventory in 2019."
"At the time of last year's forecast, the GOP's proposed revision of the tax code was still being batted around Congress. While there was talk that it might discourage people from buying a home, no one really knew how it might affect the real-estate market."
"This year ... well, we still don't really know. That's because most taxpayers won't be filing taxes under the new law until April 2019. And while some people might have a savvy tax adviser giving them a better idea of what's in store, for many, the reality check will come in the form of a bigger tax bill—or a bigger refund."
"'I think the new tax plan will affect mostly homeowners and home buyers in the upper parts of the distribution,' says Andrew Hanson, associate professor of economics at Marquette University. 'Those who either own or are buying higher-priced homes are going to pay a lot more.'"
"Sellers of those pricier homes will also take a hit, as buyers anticipating bigger tax bills won't be as willing to pony up for a high list price. The biggest change resulting from the new tax law, Hanson predicts, will be in mortgages, since people will be less inclined to take out large mortgages."
"'If anyone is going to be upset about the tax plan, it'll be mortgage bankers,' he says."
From CNBC. "Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may have 'blinked' in his Wednesday speech, saying that the Fed had 'no preset policy path' for interest rates, but his work is far from over, CNBC's Jim Cramer warned. 'What's the biggest risk to the system right now? After listening to Fed Chief Jay Powell, who made a lot of sense today, I'd say it's non-bank lending,' Cramer said Wednesday on 'Mad Money.'"
"In the speech, Powell characterized non-bank lenders as imprudent and a potential problem for the credit markets and the broader financial system. Still, he noted that after the 2008 financial crisis, federal regulators took measures that 'have reduced the risk that key non-bank parts of the system would freeze up in the face of market stress.'"
"Even so, Cramer thought the rapid-fire rise of institutions like Quicken Loans, PennyMac and LoanDepot, three of the largest non-bank lenders, posed a near-term threat."
"'There are many non-bank institutions making home loans that could collapse in value,' Cramer warned. 'These companies came out of nowhere. They now control about half of the current mortgage market — that's a trillion dollars' worth of mortgages a year.'"
"Worse, if those lenders can skirt regulations meant for big banks with similar lines of business and make loans without enough documentation or money down, 'that could be a serious problem,' the 'Mad Money' host warned."
"But Cramer — who in 2007 famously criticized the Fed for not paying enough attention to the economic layout — worried that the central bank would again fail to stop these unsound lending practices.'
"Instead of raising interest rates blindly, he suggested the Fed 'make sure they play by the same rules as J.P. Morgan and Bank of America. If there are outliers and reckless lenders, you don't raise rates, you shut them down. The Fed has that power — they should use it.'"
"Cramer's urgency stemmed from the worrisome trends across the market. In the housing sector, reports are showing falling new home sales, plateauing home prices and rising supply."
"'When you get a great deal of housing inventory and prices start coming down while mortgage rates go up, that typically causes a collapse in pricing as sellers are desperate to get out, but few buyers can actually afford these homes because they're swapping out a cheap, old mortgage for an expensive, new one,' Cramer said."
"'At that point, homeowners who want to sell have no choice but to chase buyers further down,' he continued. 'If the non-bank lenders issued floating debt, these sellers with floating-rate mortgages [will] default en masse if they can't find buyers. It could be a mini version of the mortgage meltdown we had a decade ago.'"
"So while Powell's comments may have ignited a relief rally in the stock market, the "Mad Money" host didn't want anyone to be fooled into thinking there weren't still serious risks to the health of the U.S. economy."
"'It's now time for him to put on his regulatory hat. He needs to crack down on these non-bank lenders with firm enforcement, not higher interest rates, which will just push any troubled lenders over the edge [and] make things worse,' Cramer said of Powell. 'We know it's happening. We see the ads. We know there's been little or no regulation of these guys. I'm not crying wolf. The Fed needs to crack down on these non-bank lenders before it's too late.'"