We Have An Oversupply And Demand Has Fallen Off A Cliff
A report from Bloomberg. "Ram Konara, a real estate broker in suburban Dallas, is raking in freebies this year: trips to Lake Tahoe and Santa Barbara in California, Cabo San Lucas in Mexico, and a dude ranch in Wyoming. The homebuyers he represents are cashing in, too. They’re winning price cuts of more than $100,000, on top of free upgrades such as media rooms, cabinets, and blinds."
"This generosity flows from increasingly desperate homebuilders. Hot markets are cooling fast as interest rates rise. In the great housing slowdown of 2018, shoppers are reclaiming the upper hand, after years of soaring prices that placed most inventory out of reach for many families. 'Everybody is hungry for the buyers,' Konara says."
"From builders’ perspective the news is discouraging. New home purchases tumbled in September to the weakest pace since December 2016. Sales of previously owned homes dropped for a sixth straight month, the worst streak since 2014. Homebuilding stocks have lost more than a third of their value this year."
"Raj Patel, a 35-year-old pharmacist, who has two young children, is weeks from finalizing his $699,000 new home purchase with Darling Homes. It has four bedrooms, a grand staircase, two patios, a balcony, a game room, a media room, and a three-car garage. He’s paying $90,000 less than the advertised price."
"Still, he’s worried. A builder working in the same community is selling a similar house with the 'same bells and whistles' for $75,000 less. Konara informs Patel that the market is getting soft. 'Hopefully the market doesn’t dip much more than this,' Patel replies."
"'We have an oversupply. Too many lots came on the market in the last 12 to 16 months, and demand has fallen off a cliff,' says Jennifer Johnson Clarke, director of sales for Shaddock Homes. 'I’ve not offered incentives on any scale like I’ve offered this year.'"
"After work, Ansar Ahmed, a 39-year-old information technology worker, walks into a Darling Homes showroom. It’s probably his 25th visit to a Dallas area sales office since his house hunt began in February. He’s no closer to making a decision. Ahmed has lots of worries. He’s watching mortgage rates jump and stocks plunge. Salespeople keep handing him home discount sheets, with red slashes through the original sales prices."
"'Everywhere I go I see that red line,' Ahmed says. '“I don’t want to buy at the top of the market.'"
From Dow Jones Newswire on Washington. "Amazon's announcement last week that it will add new headquarters in New York and Virginia injects new uncertainty into the already slowing Seattle market. Seattle home sales are already down this year compared with last and home price growth has eased. Price cuts are becoming more common and bidding wars more scarce. Rental landlords are struggling to lure tenants, promising perks like free rent and $2,500 Amazon gift cards."
"Economists and real-estate agents said the Amazon news is benign compared with the negative effect that rising interest rates and high prices are having in deterring buyers. Rents in downtown Seattle and the South Lake Union area, near Amazon's headquarters, have actually fallen about 2% this year, according to RealPage. About 3,000 more units are also expected to begin construction early next year."
"'If there's any more immediate effect it could be on the apartment market because they're building an awful lot of apartments downtown,' said Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Seattle-based real-estate brokerage Windermere. '"That could cause rental rates to see some kind of compression.'"
The Silicon Valley Business Journal in California. "For the first time in more than a year, there was an increase in the inventory of homes for sale in Santa Clara County in October, particularly at the $1 million-and-below price point."
"But despite that availability, overall sales continued to decline, a trend that surprised Selma Hepp, chief economist for Pacific Union International and author of the report containing the data."
"'I thought the whole time that (the sales decline) was a lack of inventory,' Hepp said. 'I think it would have been up until this point, but I think what's happening now is even at that lower price range, probably the increase in home prices together with the increase in interest rates has really affected people.'"
"Overall home sales dropped 12 percent in October from October 2017, Pacific Union’s figures show. Santa Clara County was at the most extreme end of the trend. Sub-$1 million sales fell 26 percent in San Mateo County, 23 percent in San Francisco and 18 percent in Contra Costa and Alameda counties. Overall, the Bay Area YOY sales decline was 18 percent."