A report from the Berkshire Edge in Massachusetts. "Employment is strong; we can all agree on that—or can we? I suppose it depends on whom you ask. If you ask the average person, they’re going to say yes. If you ask someone in the mortgage industry, they might have to force a fake smile."

"In the last few months, we’ve seen hiring weakness in the mortgage industry. That’s corroboration of the horror story that is going to be housing. Admittedly, housing is still good. But it was still good in 2007, too. I remember looking at a house to buy and trying to talk shop with the Realtor. I got a talking-to for 'crying wolf' about my concerns."

"I understood her defensiveness; when things have been going well, you extrapolate that and expect the future will be similar to recent past. The problem is that, at the top of any market, it always looks good. It is called a peak for a reason, after all."

"It is a decade after the old housing crisis and we silently slipped into the beginning of a new housing crisis. Today, the problem is a lack of affordable housing. There are plenty of $400,000+ homes listed for sale. That is a separate issue, yet related. Home-building growth has gone to zero, and that will be a drag on the growth of construction hiring. That high level of supply will correct itself, but the adjustment won’t be positive to the U.S. economy."

"Rising house prices have substantially outstripped income growth over the last six years and now half of Americans can only afford a $230,000 house. I should air-quote 'only' because that’s a nice house in most of America. However, the average sales price for 11 of the top 19 builders is about $400,000."

"Yes, things are still good. However, I don’t get concerned because things are good. We should embrace those times when things are good. But when we see data suggesting the tide is turning, we have to recognize that bad things were once good and that there was a turning point."

From Mansion Global. "Where have all the buyers gone? It’s a tune sellers in many key luxury real estate markets will be singing in 2019, as political and the economic uncertainty put a damper on sales from London to Los Angeles. Sellers in New York City will have to lure shy buyers with discounts of as much as 10%, according to analysts and real estate agents."

"Sales and prices have cooled in Manhattan over the past two years, a hyperlocal downturn that some predicted would have improved by now. 'We’ve just had this malaise,' said Darren Sukenik, a broker with Douglas Elliman who works primarily in downtown Manhattan. 'In April it’s going to be two years.'"

"Part of the issue is too much overpriced housing stock, especially with a new development pipeline promising another 2,000 units in 2019, said Donna Olshan, president of Olshan Realty. 'Most of the market is overpriced by at least 10%,' Ms. Olshan said. 'Then you have the structural change of the tax law putting downward pressure and you have interest rates rising. In a sense, you would call that a perfect storm.'"

"'It’s like the city’s standing on a banana peel and it’s either going to slip or it will stabilize,' she continued. 'Right now, the perception ' and the reality is that it’s a buyers market.'"

"Discounts will be most prevalent at the higher end of the Los Angeles market, according to Knock, a real estate analytics site, which predicts 90% of homes sold in the first quarter of next year will sell for a discount."

"A report from the UBS Chief Investment Office predicted the divergence between housing markets on the East Coast versus the West Coast will begin to even out in 2019. 'Los Angeles and San Francisco have been buoyed by tech company expansion,' according to the report, but 'looking forward, we consider it likelier that the gap will narrow because of the West Coast market weakening rather than the East Coast strengthening.'"

"It’s a stockpile of Florida's luxury condo inventory, specifically along the beach and neighboring barrier islands, that continues to weigh on the market and keep downward pressure on luxury prices. In the third quarter of 2018, there was still 45 months-worth of luxury supply along coastal Miami, according to the latest market report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel."