Builders Are Crying The Blues In California
A report from Bisnow on California. "Speakers at Bisnow's Silicon Valley Construction & Development Forecast event last week had differing opinions on just how dire the construction cost situation is. 'We're in a unique bubble in the Bay Area' said Project Executive Preston Hoopes . 'We're all bullish on the economy. The real estate bubble in the Bay Area — something's got to give — and I think we're starting to see that at this point.'"
"Right now is the best of times for development in Silicon Valley, but construction is already starting to slow significantly, San Jose Deputy Director of Economic Development Chris Burton said. 'Especially in the commercial space, we have lower rents, that's a lower return as construction cost goes up,' Burton said. 'Going into the next year, we're seeing probably a significant slowdown. We're doing everything we can on the city side to try to address that.'"
The Union Tribune. "For the first nine months of the year, San Diego County has built about 8,519 housing units, up from 6,054 at the same time last year, said the third quarter report from the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California."
"Alan Nevin, a real estate analyst with Xpera Group, said the lack of new single-family homes experienced this year could be worse at the end of 2018 and into 2019 because of a slowdown in the housing market. So far this year, Trulia Research said San Diego had the most reductions — 20.5 percent — of the 100 biggest metro areas in the United States. (It tied with Tampa, which also saw 20.5 percent of homes with a price cut.)"
"'(Single-family) is not doing terribly well,' Nevin said. 'When I talk to builders, they are crying the blues.'"
The Daily Bulletin. "Little over a decade ago, the housing sector almost brought down not only the American but the world economy. Today the reprise of the housing decline will be playing a very different tune."
"The biggest problems emerge at the upper-end market, particularly the 80-90 percent of all new multi-family construction that is considered 'luxury.' The first signs of diminished demand, and falling prices, can be seen in high-end markets such as Manhattan, San Francisco, London and Sydney, in part reflecting a fall in foreign investment, and shifting demographics."
"The Southland, ground zero for the last housing bust, may well reprise this unwanted role. Inventories are at their highest levels in six years, and prices increasingly wobbly. Perhaps the most obvious candidate for a real estate haircut is downtown Los Angeles."
"To be sure, the once desolate downtown has seen a considerable increase in housing units, with more than 70,000 additional units planned by 2040. Yet what it has not done is emerge as a major job center; in fact, since 2010 its share of total employment in the region is no larger than it was in 2010."
"Projections of up to 30,000 new units over the next three years increasingly reflect wishful thinking, or even delusion. Mayor Eric Garcetti was warned by his own housing department chief that L.A.’s luxury-housing overkill had created a huge 12 percent vacancy rate (5 percent is considered healthy) in all housing built since 2005. "
"Now savvy Chinese real estate website Mingtiandi is warning investors that downtown L.A. is heading for 'an imminent glut of luxury condos.' Already landlords of luxury apartments in downtown are giving out free parking — and free rent, as vacancy rates have hit record levels."
"Finally the great wave of investment from abroad, notably China, is clearly slowing, exacerbated both the emerging trade conflict and that country’s massive property indebtedness. This has already undermined the apartment market in Sydney and could also hit those parts of the Southland, like downtown, Irvine or the San Gabriel Valley, dependent on foreign buyers willing to pay high prices."
The Elk Grove Citizen. "Elk Grove Mayor Steve Ly last week shared his desires for the city to continue adding amenities. He was sworn into his second term on Dec. 12. Ly addressed the jobs-to-housing ratio imbalance in which Elk Grove has an abundance of housing, but a relatively low number of workplaces."
"'We will continue to work hard to try to attract jobs to Elk Grove,' he said. 'We talked about (this issue) consistently. Every politician has talked about it, but what it means for me is doing the cold calls and sitting down with potential companies that would come into Elk Grove and bring jobs to Elk Grove.'"