A weekend topic starting with the Wall Street Journal. "An important indicator in the U.S. commercial real-estate market is signaling that a decade long bull run is on shaky ground heading into the new year. The gap between long-term borrowing rates and what some types of commercial properties on average yield is the narrowest it has been since 2008, according to data firm Trepp LLC."

"In the past, this tightening spread has often presaged a drop in property prices, sometimes with dire results. 'In 2007, looking back, that was a real red flag,' said David Steinbach, chief investment officer for Houston-based Hines."

The Buffalo News in New York. "A lender for a Town of Tonawanda apartment complex whose owner is at the center of a federal mortgage fraud investigation wants to foreclose on the property after an auditor determined it also received false information."

"'Given the criminal conduct apparently at issue in this case, the loans are toxic,' attorney John P. Doherty wrote in a legal memo on behalf of SteepRock Capital. Doherty said SteepRock has 'unexpectedly had to deal with investor concerns and reputational risk, risk of senior lender enforcement actions that could wipe out its interest, and the Federal Bureau of Investigations' because it made loans unaware of the 'fraudulent scheme.'"

From PropertyShark on New York. " To get a clearer picture of the post-election sentiment in the multifamily real estate market in NYC, PropertyShark posed questions to several leading industry professionals."

"'The slowdown in investment sales transactions has been a product of the perfect storm: rising interest rates, concern about new rent regulation laws, and fear that the near decade long bull market has reversed.' - An Executive Managing Director at a leading investment firm."

"The outlook for investors and landlords seems bleak, at least in the short-term. Multifamily properties went from trading at 15 times rents to around 12 times – a 20% decline almost overnight. Multifamily as an asset class has typically traded at lower cap rates relative to other asset classes because there was an inherent 'vacate and increase rent' methodology used by investors. 'In past years when people bought a low cap rate deal, it was because they were counting on vacating a certain percentage of units, raising rents, and achieving a higher return.'"

From WAER on New York. "Anyone who’s been on University Hill lately has probably noticed three massive student housing projects. University Hill Corporation President Dave Mankiewicz is concerned that the influx of new student apartments is distorting and saturating the market."

"'So far what we’ve seen is that some of the older projects have been struggling, the ones that are a little further away have been struggling, and some of the units in the neighborhood have gone vacant longer or just haven’t been occupied,' he said."

From the Oregonian. "Portland built thousands of apartments in 2017, helping slow rent increases to levels not seen since 2011. Developers built some 7,300 homes during the year, most of them apartments. That’s more than any of the past 15 years — about 50 percent more than the year prior and double the number built during the typical year in the 2000s."

"The glut of supply helped bring average rent increases to an annualized rate of 2 percent. That rate continued into 2018, the report said. Meanwhile, rent concessions — discounts or weeks of free rent — grew more common."

"The city also had a banner year for residential construction permits, with 6,000 permits approved representing homes that could be built in coming years."

The Modesto Bee in California. "RentCafe reported the average rent for a Modesto complex with at least 50 apartments was $781 in December 2012. That means rents increased by more than 50 percent in six years, with the average rent increasing by $412 a month over that time frame."

"'I think it’s going to plateau,' said Ben Sweet, owner of Modesto-based Sweet Properties, which manages about 300 rental propertie. 'We are starting to see the inventory creep up. ... We are bumping up against the top of the wage base for our area. We’ve had all of these increases.'"

The Greenville News in South Carolina. "It's no secret that the revitalization of downtown Greenville has sent property values to historic highs, creating unprecedented real estate wealth in an area virtually abandoned just a few decades ago."

"Nowhere is the wealth created more evident than in the luxury apartments that are rising, one after the other, from increasingly scarce land — though a recent market analysis seems to show that there's room for many more."

"A market study found that downtown Greenville's overall vacancy rate for apartments — at 13 percent currently — is relatively low considering how many multifamily developments are being built."

"'That’s considered stunning,' Mayor Knox White said. 'This is not the apartments of 20 years ago. It’s a different demographic, and it seems to be more sustainable than years past because people’s behaviors are changing. It’s not unique to Greenville. But what is a little unusual is our market seems to be surprisingly strong.'"

"In elections and public forums and opinion pieces over the past couple years, the idea that Greenville might be flooded with apartments to an unhealthy level has permeated. The overall vacancy rate, however, has remained within the range of 10 percent, except for a spike to 15 percent with the demolition of Scott Towers in 2013 and a rise to 20 percent last year when many apartments opened."

"The downtown master plan market analysis, which found that 43 percent of renters downtown are considered to be overburdened by the share of income spent on rent. The analysis shows that a renter must earn about $50,000 per year to afford an average downtown rate, according to data gathered from 2011 to 2015."

"The median income in the city of Greenville in 2016 was $45,400, according to the downtown master plan market analysis, and the median income downtown specifically was $35,400."