Higher Prices Mark A Healthy Economy Where Real Estate Serves As An Investment
An editorial by Robert J. Shiller in the New York Times. "We are, once again, experiencing one of the greatest housing booms in U.S. history. How long this will last and where it is heading next are impossible to know now. But it is time to take notice: My data shows that this is the United States’ third-biggest housing boom in the modern era."
"In fact, based on my data, it amounts to the third strongest national boom in real terms since the Consumer Price Index began in 1913, behind only the explosive run-up in prices that led to the great financial crisis of a decade ago."
"The simplest narrative being given for the current boom is just that the 2008-09 financial crisis and the Great Recession are over and home prices are returning to normal. But that explanation does not cut it either. In September they were 11 percent higher than at the 2006 peak in nominal terms, and almost as high in real terms."
"Perhaps the home price increases are now a self-fulfilling prophesy. As John Maynard Keynes argued in his 1936 'General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money,' people seem to have a 'simple faith in the conventional basis of valuation.'"
"If the conventional basis is now that home prices are going up 5 percent a year, then sellers, who would otherwise have no idea what to ask for their houses, will just put a price based on this convention. And likewise buyers will not feel they are paying too much if they accept the convention. In the United States, we may believe that the process is all part of the 'American dream.'"
"It can’t go on forever, of course. But when it will end isn’t knowable. The data can’t tell us when prices will level off, or whether they will plunge catastrophically. All we do know is that prices have been roaring higher at a speed rarely seen in U.S. history."
From Mortgage Professional America. "Tappable equity fell in the third quarter of 2018 with softening house prices promoting a decline in 60 of the 100 largest US metros. Black Knight Inc.'s report shows that tappable equity (the among available for homeowners with a mortgage before hitting 80% LTV) fell by $140 billion in Q3 2018."
"The average homeowner with a mortgage lost $2,300 in tappable equity and 272,000 owners slipped out of tappable equity altogether."
"'That is the first decline we’ve seen since the housing recovery began, and its cause can be traced directly to softening home prices in some of the nation’s most expensive – and equity- rich – markets,' explains Ben Graboske, executive vice president of Black Knight’s Data & Analytics division."
"The Q3 decline in tappable equity erased more than 20% of the growth seen over the first 6 months of the year. More than half of the total net decline was due to three markets in California; San Jose, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Adding Seattle totals two-thirds of the net reduction in tappable equity."
"What connects these four areas is home price growth that has far outpaced the national average in recent years, but where prices fell in the third quarter."
From Northern Virginia Daily. "The National Association of Realtors hosted its first economic and realty summit for the Shenandoah Valley, assuring homeowners and buyers the economy and housing markets are favorable."
"Keynote speaker Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors organization, compared a number of current economic trends to those from the beginning of the subprime mortgage crisis that resulted in the Great Recession."
"Yun noted recent headlines touting scary times for the economy are short-term looks at a healthy market over the last nine years. 'After the crash, it has been a steady upward trend except for the recent downfall,' Yun said about existing home sales, 'the recent headline said it’s a major crash. But it’s not a major crash.'"
"When consumers were asked how confident they were home values were going to be up in one year, an overwhelming number of respondents said they thought values would go up. Realtors were even more bullish on the question with more than 60 percent saying they believed values would be up."
"On the other hand, Yun illustrated buyers’ reluctance to act on their intuition. When consumers were asked in 2016 if they thought it was a good time to buy a home, 45 percent said it was a good time. That number has declined over the last two years despite continued confidence that home values are increasing."
"'If you know for sure, with certainty, that gold prices are higher, would you want to buy gold?' Yun said. 'Generally, people would say if they believe prices will be higher, they should be optimistic about buying. But this is showing people aren’t as optimistic even though they believe prices are going to be higher.'"
"Higher housing prices, while raising the bar to enter the market, is good news for current homeowners and mark a healthy economy where real estate serves as an investment."
From The Daily Mail. "Elvis fans are being offered the chance to buy the honeymoon residence where 'The King' and his wife, Priscilla Presley, resided following their secret wedding in 1967 - for just a quarter of the original price."
"Built in 1960, the Palm Springs home was originally listed for $9.5 million. Last year the modernist home dropped its asking price to $5.9 million, according to the Seattle Times."
"Now Elvis enthusiasts with a cool $2.695 million to spare could own the modernist home which comes complete with all furnishings and art, including portraits of Elvis and a jukebox."