Someone Is Going To Be Left Holding The Bag
A report from the Wall Street Journal. "A long rally in the housing market stumbled in 2018 and looks poised to slow further. 'Suddenly the light turned off in the second half of the year, with sales tumbling down and inventory rising,' said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors."
"Other developments that weighed on the market are likely to persist, or even worsen, economists said. A record drop in foreign purchases hurt markets in Florida, California, Seattle and New York. Those buyers, who have been put off by higher prices and increasing global tensions, show little sign of coming back."
"Mortgage lenders are reporting the lowest purchase mortgage demand expectations in the five-year history of Fannie Mae’s survey of mortgage lender sentiment, a signal of bumpy times ahead for the mortgage industry. 'We think 2017 will be the peak of this cycle' for home-price increases, said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae."
"'My best guess is the housing market really comes into a soft landing. That’s the best-case scenario,' said Ralph McLaughlin, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic Inc. But, Mr. McLaughlin cautioned, that best-case scenario depends on whether buyers and sellers start to panic as the market continues to slow, especially given how fresh the memories of the 2008 crash are."
"'Markets often follow animal spirits or psychology,' he said. 'Sometimes a soft landing is perceived as a crash.'"
The San Francisco Chronicle in California. "Three major banks have stopped offering mortgages for homes at the former Hunters Point Naval Shipyard, an extraordinary move likely to complicate the already troubled effort by the city and developers to transform 500 acres of waterfront in San Francisco."
"The banks, Wells Fargo, Chase and Citi, all confirmed to The Chronicle that they are not providing loans to any buyers at the San Francisco Shipyard development at the moment. They cited reasons related to unresolved questions about the safety of the land where mega-developer Lennar Corp. has built about 450 homes and is planning thousands more."
"Real estate and economics experts said the decision by the three banks is exceptionally rare and reflects an atmosphere of uncertainty about the shipyard and its future. The move might affect current shipyard homeowners as well as potential buyers, they said, because if banks aren’t lending, people wanting to buy might have to pay in cash, and people wanting to sell could struggle to unload their properties."
"'If you freeze financing on that — wow,' said Denis DeSaix, a real estate appraiser and incoming president of the Northern California chapter of the Appraisal Institute. Depending on the extent of any contamination and the difficulty of removing whatever hazards exist, 'It could be a ghost town there for a while.'"
"Chris Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics, said the banks’ move could cause serious ripple effects, possibly making it more difficult to pay off construction loans, upsetting the development’s investors and potentially leading to more lawsuits."
"'If the banks aren’t lending to people to buy these homes, then everything else falls apart,' Thornberg said. 'Basically all hell breaks loose.'"
"Shipyard condos have been designed and pitched as a relatively affordable solution for first-time homebuyers, with some condos previously selling from around $560,000. 'We’re not talking about high-tech millionaires,' said Patrick Carlisle, chief Bay Area market analyst for Compass. 'We’re talking about people buying their first homes, or looking to stay in the city. If they can’t get a loan, it’s over. They can’t buy.'"
"'In the end, it is mortgage loans that are going to cover this project,' Thornberg said. 'And if those aren’t being made, then someone is going to be left holding the bag.'"
"One of the plaintiffs, Salustiano Ribeiro, said he bought a condo at the shipyard last summer and has since grown worried about his health after learning of fraud that occurred in the shipyard cleanup."
"Ribeiro worries that until all questions are fully answered about Parcel A and what went wrong with the wider shipyard cleanup, he will have a hard time trying to sell his home. 'I feel stuck in the moment,' he said. 'I just want to get out of here.'"