Supply Is Starting To Outpace Demand
A report from the Tampa Bay Times in Florida. "Pasco County’s high-growth corridor is attracting more than single-family homes, restaurants and retail outlets. Nine luxury apartment complexes — two already leasing to residents, two that remain under construction and five more that are proposed — will bring more than 2,500 multifamily units to the county’s southern tier. 'It is turning into apartment city. That’s what it is,' said Commissioner Mike Moore. 'How much more do you need right there?'"
"The apartment boom is not unique to Pasco. The Real Data research firm reports more than 6,100 units under construction and another 6,500 proposed in the Tampa metro market that includes southern Pasco. Moore said that too many apartment complexes could exacerbate already crowded schools. His bigger complaint, however, is that a saturated market can lead to high vacancy rates and long-term decay among complexes over a 10- or 20-year period."
From Bisnow on Georgia. "A fledgling effort to boost the number of affordable apartments around the Atlanta BeltLine and Westside district may be a case study in unintended consequences. Those consequences have city officials looking to expand its inclusionary zoning policy to include for-sale housing along the 22-mile pedestrian path that has become Atlanta's version of Central Park."
"Atlanta City Councilman Andre Dickens said he has heard of few grumblings about the IZ among developers, and dismisses its effect on new apartments. Instead, he suspects the slowdown in permits for new projects with a for-rent component may have more to do with a natural slowdown in apartments as the market digests a glut of new supply."
"'The reason why you're seeing that trend is because of the oversaturation of apartments, and you've got to see that die down,' he said."
From Bisnow on Washington. "The state of capital markets in Seattle is strong, thanks to the region’s continued strong job market. The exception is the downtown Seattle apartment market, where rents are beginning to drop due to high levels of supply. 'Capital tends to chase job growth,' The Wolff Co. Vice President of Development Chris Rossman said."
"In the near term, Rossman expects to see stabilizing rent growth, which will put pressure on margins and yields. 'One thing we need to consider is that development is a three- to four-year business,' he said. 'Although supply is starting to outpace demand, there are projects that have yet to be considered. Development is slow to change.'"
From Crain's Chicago Business in Illinois. "Rent growth is slowing down at suburban Chicago apartment buildings, but developers are speeding up. Developers are on track to complete more than 3,000 apartments in the suburbs this year, up from 1,843 in 2017, according to Integra Realty Resources, a Chicago-based consulting firm. It would also be the biggest total since at least 1996, when the firm began tracking suburban multifamily construction."
"Amid a strong job market, a key driver of demand for apartments, landlords have jacked up rents, lifting property incomes and values—and attracting a herd of developers trying to get in on the boom."
"Yet the suburban apartment market is cooling, enough to make it harder for landlords to raise rents but not enough cause alarm. One reason: Though job growth in Chicago area remains strong, a big chunk of the new jobs are being created downtown, not in the suburbs, said Integra Senior Managing Director Ron DeVries."
"Competition from new buildings could make it harder for some landlords to raise rents—good news for tenants. 'You combine the supply with where jobs are happening, and I think next year is probably going to be another year of modest growth,' DeVries said."
"Developers aren’t backing off yet. Nearly 4,300 apartments are under construction in the suburbs right now, and about 3,000 of those will be completed in 2019, according to Integra."
From WGBH in Massachusetts. "A tax on high-end condos is one idea that Boston City Councilor Kim Janey is considering as a potential solution to a shortage of affordable housing in the city. 'I’d like us to be thinking about how we go after these luxury condos,' Janey said in an interview with WGBH News. 'If you wanted to sell your property within the first year, which a lot of flippers and speculators do, you would then be paying a higher tax when you let go of that property, versus if you held on to it.'"
"The proposals for new taxes, which received public praise from concerned residents at the hearing, came from the left-leaning Institute for Policy Studies. Chuck Collins, director of the program on inequality and the common good at the DC-based think tank, wants the city to tamp down speculative activity."
"Collins argued that Boston's luxury housing market is evolving into a safe deposit box for global wealth. He said that while the construction jobs and property taxes that come with high-end units have positive effects, he does not think those effects are not positive enough to offset their damage."
"'These are $3 million condos and up, so many of them are out-pricing local affluent markets and pushing affluent buyers into other neighborhoods and leading to a cycle of displacement,' he said."