That Price Becomes A Stigma
A report from Realtor.com. "Is the party really over? Over the last decade, the seemingly unstoppable growth of the American housing market has created a bonanza for sellers, a cutthroat environment for buyers, and an endless source of fascination for just about everyone else. It seemed to be an economic perpetual-motion machine. Could home prices in top markets really just keep going up and up ... and up?"
"Well, no, actually. In the last few months, the real estate market has actually begun slowing down—including in some of the big cities that have been leading the go-go post-recession housing boom."
"'There's a rebalancing that needs to happen,' says Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac. 'Prices have risen so high in some of these markets that it's very tough from an affordability perspective [for buyers]. ... It's not surprising to me that we're seeing a little bit of a leveling off.'"
"So stash the B-word, at least for now: The dreaded Housing Bubble isn't poised to pop. There are simply more homes for sale now and fewer buyers vying for them. In other words, the market is returning to some semblance of reality."
"'Are we going off the cliff?' says Honolulu-area real estate broker George Krischke of Hawaii Living. 'I don't have a crystal ball, but I don't think so. ... It's a temporary slowdown and may be a plateau.'"
"Borrowers are facing a little 'sticker shock,' says Julie Aragon, a mortgage broker at Julie Aragon Lending Team in Santa Monica, CA, who works with buyers from San Diego. 'They just don't realize how much [rates] went up. Even an eighth to a quarter of a percentage point increase is going to make a big impact.'"
"That's particularly true in high-priced areas like the Southern California city of San Diego, where the median price of $659,400 is more than double the national figure. 'I’ve seen people lose $50,000 in purchasing power,' Aragon says. And that's giving buyers pause."
"Higher rates are also stymieing move-up buyers who want to trade their starter homes for larger, nicer homes, but are reluctant to give up their existing low mortgage rates to do so, says Ted Wilson of Residential Strategies, a housing consultant based in the Dallas area."
"The reality is that rates are still low compared to previous decades, when double-digit rates weren't uncommon. 'Folks have been used to a world of dirt-cheap mortgage rates,' says Freddie Mac's Kiefer. 'We’re moving to a world where rates are more in line with what we’d expect to see over the long term.'"
"Fact is, prices can't increase at record levels forever. And we may have finally hit an inflection point in many bellwether markets. 'To some degree, the markets that went up the most and the fastest just pushed too hard [in prices],' says Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst for Silicon Valley and the Bay Area at the real estate company Compass. 'Over the summer, it was like something cracked, and people said 'I can't do this anymore.'"
"Add in those higher mortgage rates, and 'that’s a whole lot more money that someone is going to have to spend to pay their monthly mortgage on a 1,500-square-foot, three-bedroom, two-bathroom ranch house that suddenly costs $2 million,' says Carlisle."
"So is it any big surprise that about 36.8% of San Jose-area sellers have had to slash prices on their homes in the last year?"
'President Donald Trump's tax changes have also hit Silicon Valley and the Bay Area hard. Homeowners can now only deduct from their taxes mortgage interest on loans of up to $750,000, down from $1 million. This isn't just a rich person's problem—it's hard to find even a modest starter home for less than $1 million in this region."
"Then add in a new $10,000 cap on property and either sales or income taxes. Suddenly, owning a home is a whole lot more expensive."
"The entire West Coast, long the growth capital of the United States, is showing signs of being overheated. 'For everyone, there's a maximum to what they can pay,' says Annie Radecki, senior manager at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, who covers Seattle and Portland."
"More and more homeowners, fearing that the real estate market has reached its peak, are champing at the bit to sell. And that has led to a relative glut of available homes—more than even the hottest markets can easily absorb."
"'There’s a perception [among owners] that the market has had a good run and maybe it’s time to cash in,' says Honolulu broker Krischke. 'The good times have to end.'"
"In Stockton, CA, which came in first in our slowdown rankings, price drops are common because sellers shot too high, says local agent Jerry Patterson of Cornerstone Real Estate Group. This is a city that has long been plagued by crime and poverty. But its location, about an hour and a half northeast of Silicon Valley and close to the vineyards in Lodi, CA, gave it a boost in recent years, with annual prices rising 8.2% last year and 14.3% in the prior year."
"But with more homes for sale and less competition for them, 'buyers are now in a bit more of a power position,' Patterson says. '[They're] able to flex their muscles a little bit more.'"
"And sellers are learning the hard way that the danger of pricing their homes too high is that they can wind up stagnating on the market. 'They're entering what we call the 'sludge,' says Nashville real estate broker Brian Copeland, of Doorbell Real Estate. 'There’s nothing wrong with their house. But that price becomes a stigma.'"
"In Dallas, 'There's more inventory than there is demand,' says Dallas-area Realtor Dee Evans of Ebby Halliday Realtors. But she's beginning to see the pace of new construction slowing, and those extra units are being absorbed by buyers. 'Hopefully, the builders will be smart about putting less new stuff up.'"