The Only Fundamental That Really Matters
A weekend topic starting with The Guardian in the UK. "Few tears will have been shed at recent reports that flats in London’s Centre Point building, where a one-bed goes for a genuinely surreal £1.8m, aren’t shifting. There is a horribly powerful lure in the idea of just blowing it all up and starting again, shaking the property-rich out of their complacency and putting power back in the hands of the priced-out."
"But while a crash may be an opportunity for a lucky few, at least as long as they can keep their jobs long enough to get a mortgage, it is very far from being the answer. The most dangerous delusion of all, however, is that it doesn’t matter if this mild correction to overheated house prices turns into a full-blown crash, because those who’d suffer most are comfortable middle-aged owner-occupiers who can afford the hit."
"It’s the youngest and the most painfully overstretched buyers who risk being trapped in negative equity, with loans worth more than their homes, or locked out of cheap mortgage rates. A smart government would be thinking now about how to support them if the worst happens."
The Daily Telegraph in Australia. "Plummeting home prices in Sydney and Melbourne have dragged the Australian housing market into its biggest slump since the start of the global financial crisis. CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said he expected the current downturn to last significantly longer than the one recorded in 2008."
"'Back then the market was hit by an economic shock but it quickly recovered because of heavy stimulus from government,' he said. 'This time it is a lot different because the economy is doing well and unemployment is generally low. It’s almost all being driven by a change in credit policies and there’s nothing to suggest there will be any intervention (from government).'"
"'One of the biggest issues for Sydney is that not enough people can afford to get into the market. The price-to-income ratio is just too high. People are also leaving the state for Queensland, so demand is falling,' Mr Lawless said."
From An-Nahar. "As the real estate market continues its downward spiral amid turbulent times, Lebanon's economy might, in the long run, benefit from this drop, leading economist Jihad El Hokayem tells Annahar."
"Productive sectors, which are the real sectors of any given economy, 'will tremendously benefit from a decrease in real estate prices given that their operational costs will, by correlation, also decrease,' he says. 'A reduction in costs will increase a business' margin of profits.'"
"To alleviate Lebanese household's diminished purchasing power, El Hokayem reiterates his call for a decrease in residential rents and household prices which then leads to a higher standard of living as well. 'If people spend less on rent, their discretionary income naturally increases,' he says, which then translates to increased spending on other amenities, boosting the service and retail sectors among others."
"'The real estate sector shouldn’t have been propped up at the expense of the economy and the productive sector,' El Hokayem notes, alluding to Banque Du Liban's unsustainable efforts to maintain the market."
"'The drop in real estate could have tremendously benefited Lebanon's youth and newlyweds, a wide-ranging number of businesses, and the overall health of the economy, but the different policies implemented led us to botch this potential silver lining,' El Hokayem concludes."
The Langley Advance in Canada. "Opinion remains divided in British Columbia. Either we’re on the cusp of a massive housing crash, or prices will simply flatten out and we’ll see that fabled 'soft landing' so many analysts promised. I don’t put much faith in the notion that real estate will have a soft landing here in Metro Vancouver."
"I’m sure there are plenty of people ready to reply 'but the fundamentals are strong,' but that’s nonsense. The only fundamental that really matters is whether people who want to live in the area can afford to buy homes. They can’t."
"Worse, we’re building more housing units right now – more than 40,000 annual starts by 2018 – than projected long-term population increases, which is around 30,000 for Metro Vancouver."
"Prices will go down. It’s already started. But it’s going to take a long time, maybe years, for the air to leak out of the balloon."