The End-User Expectation Of Price Rationalisation In The Quarters To Come
A report from Bloomberg on Canada. "Canada’s home sales skidded to the lowest level since 2012 last year after dropping for four straight months through December. Nationwide, sales totaled 458,442 for the year, a drop of 11 percent which was the biggest since 2008, the Canadian Real Estate Association said. The 2.5 percent December drop from the prior month was the most in eight months. Vancouver and Toronto led the slowdown in transactions."
"'It’s clear that higher interest rates are having an impact, said Benjamin Reitzes, a macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets. 'It was a difficult year and you are coming off a very strong run for housing,' he said, adding there is little chance of a 'major comeback' in 2019."
From Mansion Global on the UK. "Is 2019 the year of despair or one of opportunity? The property market is moving slowly, particularly in London and the southeast, and forecasts are mostly bleak. 'Many estate agents are predicting negative or neutral growth for 2019. ' Vendors are becoming more committed to sell as soon as possible before prices fall any farther,' says Jess Simpson of the buying agency Jess Simpson Property Search."
"Research by UBS found that 39 per cent of listings in London are now reduced, and experts say buyers (investors and residential purchasers) are achieving price cuts of 30 per cent as developers and impatient sellers try to offload stock. There are plenty of other examples in west London — a house on Wycombe Square in Kensington has just been sold for 33 per cent less than the seller paid for it in 2008 — £7.7 million down from £11.5 million."
The South China Morning Post. "Hong Kong developer Sino Land will offer up to 30 per cent discounts at a development in Tai Po to try to drum up sales amid a weakening housing market in the city. The first batch of 108 units of its Mayfair by the Sea development 8 in Tai Po district, New Territories, will be offered at an average price of HK$13,228 (US$1,686.65) per square foot, the developer said Monday."
"In comparison, The St Martin by Sun Hung Kai Properties, about a 10-minute walk away, sold for an average HK$18,698 per square foot in July of last year, shortly before the city’s 28-month bull run in home prices ended. The number of property transactions in Hong Kong fell 58 per cent to 3,024 in December 2018 from the same period in 2017, according to Midland Realty."
The Australian Financial Review. "Sales of off-the-plan units have surged across Australia's biggest cities but the market downturn and an unwelcome light on defects could prove disastrous for buyers who have bet big on the apartment boom. Prices are now falling, particularly in those pockets of the capital cities where cranes have most recently dominated the skylines."
"Over the past five years fear of missing out pushed property prices in Sydney up by more than 75 per cent as buyers rushed the market and entire apartment complexes sold out within hours of launching. Now, after years of warnings from industry pundits about unsustainable growth in the property market and the risk of what would happen in a credit squeeze the final blow came from the industry itself on the most basic issue of all, building quality."
"'We see a lot of defects across most buildings,' property valuer Anna Porter tells The Australian Financial Review. 'A study into new builds between 2000 and 2012 found around 80 per cent had reported structural defects. 'What we have seen is that in years gone by when developer margins are tightening the only place they can make more money is through reducing the cost of the build, and to reduce the cost of the build is to cut corners in the quality of the building, because they need to find savings somewhere.'"
"'They set up special-purpose vehicles to acquire sites and develop them. It's harder to sue builders and developers because on many occasions when you find out there's a problem, you realised that the developers or builders create these two-dollar companies which don't have any assets. Which in effect decreases the quality of work because even if they do get sued, their assets are safe,' says law firm partner Chris Kerin."
The Hindu Business Line on India. "With home sales slowing down in Kolkata, developers across the city have taken to marketing by offering a host of freebies, première facilities and discounts. While discounts may not be openly advertised, sources say some deals are closed 10-15 per cent lower than marked price on down payment. This incidentally is the highest drop in the last three years."
"Unsold inventory is taking longer time to be disposed. While previously units were sold over 12.1 quarters (approximately three years); they are now taking 12.6 quarters (or three years three months) to dispose."
"'Residential sales volumes remained at an all-time low in 2018. The primary reason behind low sales is the end-user expectation of price rationalisation in the quarters to come,' real estate consultancy firm, Knight Frank said."