Do You Think These Important Omissions Are Just Coincidence?
A report from Kieth Jurow at Market Watch. "Remember all those sub-prime mortgages that blew up in 2007 and popped the housing bubble? The widely-held consensus is that millions of them were foreclosed as housing markets cratered. Since then, the remaining ones have been quietly disappearing as markets recovered. Here is the problem: That is just a fairy tale."
"Collectively, loans from the bubble period that were not guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac were called non-agency securitized mortgages. Researcher Black Box Logic had an enormous database of non-agency loans until it was sold to Moody's three years ago. At the peak of the buying madness — November 2007 — its database showed 10.6 million loans outstanding with a total balance of $2.43 trillion."
"In 2016, Fitch Ratings first published a spreadsheet showing what percentage of these loans had been delinquent for more than three-, four-, or five years. Here is an updated table showing the 10-worst states and how the number of deadbeat borrowers has soared."
"In 2012, just 2% of all these delinquent borrowers had not paid for more than five years. Two years later that number had skyrocketed to 21%. Why? Mortgage servicers around the country had discontinued foreclosing on millions of delinquent properties. Homeowners got wind of this and realized they could probably stop making payments without any consequences whatsoever. So they did."
"Within the last two years, important graphs and tables showing the extent of the delinquency mess have disappeared from reports issued regularly by Fannie Mae, mutual fund provider TCW, and data provider Black Knight Financial Services."
"According to a TCW spokesperson, the graph is no longer published in the firm’s Mortgage Market Monitor because there did not seem to be much demand for it. Really? This graph had appeared in their report for years and showed the extremely high percentage of modified non-agency loans where the borrower had re-defaulted."
"Meanwhile, the omitted Fannie Mae table also showed the rising percentage of modified Fannie Mae loans that had re-defaulted. Its last published table showed re-default rates of almost 40%. Do you think these important omissions are just coincidence?"
"A majority of the loan modifications involved adding the delinquent-interest arrears onto the amount owed (known as capitalization). I have seen several reports showing that this amount is often hundreds of thousands of dollars for a single loan, particularly in California. So huge numbers of these delinquent loans are on properties that are likely still underwater after more than 10 years."
"More than one-third of all non-agency securitized loans were originated in California. Most of those underwritten in 2006 and 2007 were 'stated income' loans where the borrower did not have to verify his/her income."
"Given the awful underwriting standards of these loans, why does no California metro appear in the table shown earlier with the 10 worst metros? By the middle of 2015, according to the database of BlackBox Logic, more than 40% of all outstanding California non-agency securitized loans had been modified."
"Here is the key consideration: When a loan is modified, it is no longer considered to be delinquent."
The Review Journal in Nevada. "The small house in central Las Vegas stands out a bit because of its salmon-colored exterior but otherwise fits right in with the neighborhood of older, low-slung homes. Since the recession, its value has also shot up — but that’s not much of an anomaly either."
"The salmon-colored house at 109 Woodley St. in the 89106 ZIP code has traded hands multiple times in recent years. It was purchased at a foreclosure auction in 2010 for just $49,100, but most recently sold for $235,000 in October, property records show."
"Realty One Group agent Jeff Prenger said he is selling a house down the street, at 215 Woodley St., for 'pretty much' the asking price, around $275,000. The current owner bought the home at a foreclosure auction last year for $150,300, property records show."
"Prenger said he heard from a neighbor that the house had been empty for four or five years and had squatters."
"Affordability concerns, sparked by fast-rising values and higher mortgage rates — sales totals have tumbled in Las Vegas, and the once-depleted inventory of available listings has soared."