Is It Possible That Investments Might Go Into Alarm Mode?
A report from the Buffalo News in New York. "Rochester developer Robert C. Morgan's problems in Buffalo just got worse. The special loan servicer handling the $27.8 million commercial mortgage on the Raintree Island Apartments in the City of Tonawanda this week declared the loan in default. The firm cited 'false or misleading' financial statements, claims or other documents that Morgan's company provided to justify the original loan, according to a letter obtained by The Buffalo News."
"Federal indictments last May charged four people with fraud related to mortgages on apartment properties owned by Morgan businesses."
"The default notice is the latest sign of trouble for Morgan, an investor and developer who has built a multifamily real estate empire over the last two decades through aggressive buying and selling of properties from his suburban Rochester base. He owns and operates more than 36,000 apartments in 14 states through his Morgan Communities and Morgan Management. His techniques and rapid growth drew the attention of the FBI and U.S. Attorney's Office in Buffalo, which have been investigating Morgan businesses for more than two years."
The Wall Street Journal on New York. "There may be nobody who lost more from Amazon's pull out of Queens than the real-estate investors at Savanna. It approached lenders to borrow $750 million against the value of the 53-story tower, which Savanna believed would more than double in worth after landing its famous new tenant, according to people familiar with the matter."
"Amazon’s plan for a second headquarters in Long Island City sparked a real-estate frenzy, with investors bidding up condo prices immediately. Commercial property owners saw a sharp rise—and then fall—in the interest in their buildings with Amazon’s commitment and subsequent reversal. But few investors experienced as dramatic a swing in fortune as Savanna did."
"Savanna gambled on Long Island City when it bought One Court Square in 2014, betting that the decades-long shift from an industrial neighborhood to a more 24-hour mix of office workers and residents would finally take hold. 'It is going to be hard to get a large commercial real-estate loan on a property that is 70% vacant,' said Joe McBride, a director at Trepp, which tracks commercial mortgage-backed securities."
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. "Dallas-Fort Worth is the top apartment building market in the country. So the outlook for the multifamily construction sector should be of interest to builders who are now constructing more than 35,000 North Texas apartments."
"At its annual conference this week in Las Vegas, the National Association of Home Builders is forecasting that nationwide starts of apartments and other multifamily units will decline slightly this year and rebound by only a hair in 2020. 'In 2019 and 2020, we are pretty confident with the forecast we have with flat conditions,' said Danushka Nanayakkara of the association's forecasting and analysis department."
"She said construction has caught up with demand in most U.S. markets, but so far there is not a glut of new apartments on the market. Richardson-based RealPage — the apartment industry service provider — also sees a leveling in apartment building activity."
"Product already on the way points to a steady flow of apartment deliveries in the immediate future,' said RealPage chief economist Greg Willett. 'Nationally, completions should remain near 300,000 market-rate units annually in 2019 and 2020.'"
"'There's been no pullback in apartment development capital availability to date, and construction won't slow in a big way until money sources scale back on investment activity,' he said."
From Bisnow on Texas. "For now, the Metroplex suffers an overhang of senior housing supply, according to the speakers at Bisnow's DFW Senior Housing event. Dallas-Fort Worth senior housing has an occupancy rate of about 84%, a little below the national average. Supply has grown in recent years, just like at the national level. 'Part of the reason for strong inventory growth was interest among investors after the recession, especially for assisted living, because it held up better during the recession,' said National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care Chief Economist Beth Mace."
"'If supply can slow down, demand will catch up to it, and occupancy rates will tick upward,' both nationally and locally, Mace said. 'It can happen. In San Antonio, for instance, at its recent peak there was about 25% of inventory under construction. As a result, supply wildly outraced demand, and so construction slowed down a lot. Now occupancy there is edging upward again.'"
"The speakers pointed out that a recession is coming. Is senior living really recession-proof? The short answer is no, but the right properties can be recession-resistant."
The Naples Daily News in Florida. "I have a few comments regarding the recent County Commission meeting involving the 'need' for rental affordable housing. I’ve been doing my homework, checking the facts, and then driving around to make sure I see it with my own eyes."
"It seemed everywhere I drove, I saw for rent signs, and this is SEASON! If we can’t rent them in season, how accurate is the needs assessment? Where is the crisis?"
"I checked the rental apartment inventory list provided by the affordable housing department, which also included 'rental apartments in process' and found that right this minute there are 4,019 apartments in some stage of construction. This doesn’t count smaller apartment complexes, condo rentals converted from condo living to investment, homes for rent, etc. And these don’t even count the three Habitat villages being built at this moment in East Naples."
"What will happen if the economy slows down? Many new rentals have been started because of the perceived crisis. If very little renting takes place in the summer, is it possible that investments might go into alarm mode? And now the commissioners have approved even more density for affordable rental housing! I explained this to them. No one listened. Keep watch. I foresee problems ahead."