For Some Of Them, It’s Not Even About Making A Profit Any More – It’s About Mitigating Their Loss
A report from Bloomberg on Australia. "As real-estate agent Adam Wong works through Australia’s worst property downturn in decades, he’s also found himself at the mercy of China’s slowing economy. In Wong’s core market of Chatswood, a suburb north of Sydney’s harbor bridge where a third of residents claim Chinese ancestry, his sales have slumped by as much as half from their peak. That’s reflected in recent government data showing China is no longer Australia’s biggest foreign investor amid a plunge in property purchases."
"'There are two main factors behind the drop,' said Wong, who estimates 90 percent of his sales in Chatswood are to Chinese buyers. 'The first is people not being able to get the money out of China, and from mid-2017 China’s economy started to slow and that also had an effect.'"
"Chinese appetite for apartments and harbor-side mansions helped drive an east-coast property boom that saw Sydney house prices soar 75 percent in the five years through mid-2017. But since then, prices in Australia’s biggest city have dropped 13 percent."
"While Chinese buyers helped inflate the property bubble, they’re unlikely to return in sufficient numbers to stabilize the market. For one thing, shifting money abroad from China is tougher these days as authorities there are strictly enforcing rules aimed at curbing capital outflows."
"There are other domestic factors suggesting prices could keep declining too. Australian banks have turned gun-shy on lending following an inquiry that exposed widespread misconduct in the industry and more homes are coming to the market."
"The Chinese didn’t just favor Australia. Investors embarked on a shopping spree that helped inflate asset prices around the world, snapping up everything from luxury condominiums in Canada to resorts in Hawaii and skyscrapers in London."
From the Globe and Mail in Canada. "Toronto-area house hunters who are lamenting the thin supply of listings in the real estate market might consider a meander through Willowdale. The area near Yonge Street and Sheppard Avenue recently had 42 houses for sale on one wintery day when real estate agent Andre Kutyan tallied the property listings."
"Not only were the listings more plentiful north of the 401, the properties typically take longer to sell. In the area he surveyed, the average number of days on market is 46. South of the 401, average days on market is 36 for his sample group. (And that number doesn’t take into account that many of the properties in both areas have been taken down and relisted many times)."
"In all of 2018, 51 properties that met Mr. Kutyan’s criteria changed hands in the Willowdale sample and the average sale price was $2,727,330. At that pace, it would take 10 months to sell the 42 houses for sale – if no new supply arrives on the market."
"He characterizes the tension between sellers and buyers north of Highway 401 as a stand-off. Many of the sellers are builders who are holding out hope that the market in the Greater Toronto Area will see a strong rebound, Mr. Kutyan says. He adds that says many of them paid a hefty price for the original property, then saw the value of the land slide as they built two new houses."
"'Their profit margins are being wiped out. For some of them, it’s not even about making a profit any more – it’s about mitigating their loss,' he said."
"Many potential buyers, meanwhile, are anticipating a fire sale when the developers become desperate enough. 'The buyers’ attitude is terrible – they think the sky is falling and they’re sitting on the sidelines,' he says."
"In the Toronto real estate landscape, Mr. Kutyan thinks one reason for the different dynamics north and south of the 401 is that the Willowdale area saw a rush of money from overseas buyers in China, Iran and other countries up until early 2017. That influx encouraged spec builders to put up new houses as quickly as they could acquire the lots."
"The 905 regions of Markham and Richmond Hill have also been hurt as foreign money has dried up, he says."
"Mr. Kutyan believes that builders who are waiting for a dramatic upswing are clinging to false hope. In order to end the stand-off, he thinks sellers need to become more realistic. 'They have this misconception that the market’s going to get better in the spring – the only thing that’s going to get better in the spring is the weather.'"