We Are Going To See A Torrent
A report from the Globe and Mail in Canada. "A prominent Vancouver immigration lawyer and other experts are praising the surprising amount of information that the province has demanded on the declaration form for its new Speculation and Vacancy Tax (SVT). They say such data, which includes social insurance numbers, will finally enable governments to nab foreign and domestic speculators who are reaping windfalls from property purchases without contributing their fair share of taxes."
"The collection of that extra income tax information is vital, says lawyer Richard Kurland, who has been outspoken on this issue for years, saying that the double whammy of failure to declare global income by wealthy foreign buyers, coupled with speculative buying practices, has lead to the current affordability crisis."
"'It’s not a perfect system, but it’s a game changer,' he says of the SVT. 'Locals were paying taxes on capital gains and foreigners were declaring their profit to no one – not Canada, not their home country – so they could afford to keep buying more and more property while the locals could not, because they had to give a piece of the pie in tax. And we were outbid.'"
"'That’s why we had this problem – all because the [previous] government refused to collect the information on who knows what, which crippled enforcement of the Income Tax Act, which let these guys take profit, untaxed, anywhere in the world and they were able to beat out the locals in house auctions again and again.'"
"As well, he adds, the new information will help in the battle against money laundering, which was revealed by a provincial report last year as occurring in casinos and real estate. 'That’s the plus,' Mr. Kurland says. 'This is an effective tool against money laundering because you know who owns what. Then [government] can go, ‘Okay Mr. Smith, great, you bought and sold three houses for $1-million each. We looked at your income tax returns for 20 years and you have been earning $40,000 a year. Where did the money come from?'"
"Derek Holloway is a recently retired senior assessor for BC Assessment and he would like to see the government target large commercial and industrial properties as well, a sector where foreign money is flowing. But he applauds the collection of new data in housing."
"'This is the only government that is truly responsible, because previous governments didn’t give a damn. We have a market screaming along, super over heated, values skyrocketing and they were collecting [property transfer tax] on it, they loved it. It was filling the coffers,' he said."
"Mr. Kurland said the high-end market for properties in areas such as West Vancouver and the west side of the city had already began to tumble when the new tax measures were announced early last year. With the collection of more data, he sees more unloading of properties. 'It’s almost a magic mirror. When the new system of the prescribed form came in, the high-end residential property in Vancouver began to tumble, quickly. With the social insurance number, we are going to see a torrent, but only from people who have something to hide. If you have nothing to hide, there is no reason to sell,' Mr. Kurland says."
From Better Dwelling. "Toronto and Vancouver real estate is seeing default rates climb from recent lows. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) numbers show the ratio of delinquencies is climbing in both cities as of Q3 2018. The increase is most notable for the largest mortgages."
"Toronto CMA experienced a sharp annual uptick in delinquencies larger mortgages. The big change was in mortgages $400k and larger, which reached 0.09% – up a whopping 28.57% from the year before. Vancouver CMA is seeing a similar trend, with the largest mortgages showing a fast climb."
"Canada’s largest real estate markets both saw delinquencies on larger mortgages climb. The rate is still low in the grand scheme of things, but inventory is rising and sales falling both cities. This makes it more difficult for a distressed seller to liquidate in a timely fashion. That can turn a delinquent loan into a defaulted loan fairly quickly. If this doesn’t reverse soon, expect motivated sellers to bring prices further down. After all, a home’s price is only as strong as its comp."
From Global News. "The number of vacant new homes in Edmonton has reached a record high for the fifth consecutive month. ATB Financial says the number of completed — but not purchased — homes climbed to 1,941 in January. That is a 63 per cent increase compared to a year ago and a 7.5 per cent increase from a month earlier, according to ATB."
"Calgary is experiencing a similar situation, with the number of vacant new homes reaching 891 in January, which was close to the record reached in 2001, ATB said. The number also marks a growth of 39 per cent from a year earlier."
From CBC News. "'What we're seeing is a bit of an overbuild that began in 2018, said John Rose, the City of Edmonton's chief economist. 'There was a period in 2018 and late 2017 where we didn't see the housing starts come down even though the housing market had softened … Basically the industry couldn't move back fast enough and they got a little ahead of themselves.'"