Demand Went From Good To Horrible
A report from CNBC. "Sales of existing homes were weaker than expected in March. But behind the headline numbers, an even more disconcerting dynamic is playing out. Both the high end and the low end of the market are struggling due to completely different factors."
"Sales of the lowest priced homes—those below $100,000—were down 13% in March compared with a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. In contrast, sales of high-end homes were soaring back in 2017. Million-dollar plus sales were up nearly 31% that year. This March, sales in that price class were down 11% year over year, even though there are plenty of those homes for sale. In fact, there is nearly a year’s worth of luxury supply available for sale now."
"The impact is already pretty clear in New York city and in much of California, some of the priciest markets in the nation. Los Angeles home sales fell 12% annually in March, according to the California Association of Realtors, even as the supply of listings increased. Sales in the San Francisco Bay Area were down nearly 11%."
"In Manhattan, the number of home sales in the first quarter of this year fell to the lowest level in a decade and was 16.4% below the two decade average of all quarters, according to Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel a real estate appraisal and consulting firm. This as listing inventory jumped nearly 9%."
From Reuters. "Last month, existing home sales fell in all four regions. There were 1.68 million previously owned homes on the market in March, up from 1.63 million in February. At March’s sales pace, it would take 3.9 months to exhaust the current inventory, up from 3.6 months in February."
"First-time buyers accounted for a third of sales last month, little changed from February and up from 30 percent a year ago. Economists and realtors say a 40 percent share of first-time buyers is needed for a robust housing market."
From Bloomberg. "Buyers in the tightest U.S. housing markets finally got what they’ve been looking for: inventory. But instead of sales surging as a result, they’re sinking. In Salt Lake City, where listings jumped 53 percent in March from a year earlier, transactions fell 21 percent, the biggest drop in the country, according to Redfin Corp. Utah’s capital was followed by Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Orange County, California, all previously hot markets where inventory has been rising."
"'Buyers are back, but they’re picky,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist of Redfin. 'In order to get back to a balanced market, prices have to come down more.'"
"Demand in markets such as Orange County went from 'good to horrible' late last year, said Rick Palacios, director of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC, which tracks home construction. In the fourth quarter, sales of new homes in the area were the weakest since the Great Recession, he said."
"'We’re starting to hear that sales are picking up in Orange County and the Pacific Northwest,' Palacios said. 'The caveat is that builders are having to cut prices and meet the market to generate those sales.'"
A press release from Redfin. "Nine of the 85 largest metro areas Redfin tracks saw a year-over-year decline in their median price, including a 13 percent drop in San Jose and a 1 percent dip in San Francisco. These and other expensive West Coast markets, including Los Angeles, Orange County, and Seattle, posted double-digit year-over-year declines in the number of homes sold."
From the Key News in Florida. "Key Biscayne real estate is on its fourth year of a down market, with many sellers hoping it’s hit bottom. Overall, Key Biscayne activity decreased 31 percent this first quarter of 2019 versus the same period last year, according to the Miami-Dade Multiple Listing Services. Properties are also taking longer to sell, with an average of eight months on the market prior to closing. Needless to say, it’s the market-priced properties that are selling."
"The median sale price for condominium and single-family homes is $970,000. This represents a slight decline of 8 percent versus 2018 and a 24 percent decline versus five years ago."
"A total of eight single-family homes sold in the first quarter, while 126 houses are actively listed for sale. Of the eight, five were priced between $2 million to $3 million. This price segment experienced the most activity in the last couple of years."
"Two-thirds of the Key Biscayne condos sold were priced under $1 million, which seems to be the sweet spot for condo buyers. EWM Realty President Ron Shuffield told a recent Key Biscayne meeting that Miami-Dade County has more luxury inventory than it has ever had: 5,000 units (condos and houses) for sale above $1 million. Conclusion: it’s still a buyer’s market."
"Real estate professionals attribute the weak market to a mix of factors. South Florida real estate boomed for several years; a price correction after the 2015 peak was bound to happen. In 2016, The U.S. Treasury Department began to aggressively track money laundering through Miami-Dade real estate, pursuing shell companies that bought homes for $1 million using cash. At the same time, currency devaluation in some Latin American nations affected the purchasing power of many potential buyers."