If Enough People Believe Prices Are Peaking Then Sellers Hurry, Buyers Hold Off And Prices Fall
A report from Mansion Global on California. "San Francisco’s median house price was $1.545 million in the first quarter of 2019, a 4% decline from a year ago, according to a quarterly report from Compass. Overall sales in the Golden Gate City plummeted 13% in the first quarter compared to a year ago, reflecting tech stock volatility and the high interest rates that dealt a double blow to buyer confidence at the end of 2018, according to Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst at Compass and author of the report."
The Los Angeles Times in California. "In Beverly Hills, the price to live like Cher and Eddie Murphy is now about 44% cheaper. An equestrian compound that counts both stars as former owners has returned to market at $48 million. That’s a considerable discount from when the five-acre estate first listed two years ago for $85 million. More recently, it was priced at $69.995 million, records show."
"The main house, though unfinished, measures roughly 20,000 square feet and holds the majority of the property’s 11 bedrooms and 17 bathrooms."
From Builder Online. "Knock forecasts that 75% of current on-market listings will sell below their original list prices heading into Q2 2019. While this is lower than the Q1 2019 Forecast of 77%, it reflects a significant year-over-year increase that is in line with the upward trend in deals over the course of the past three months. In Q1 2019, 72% of homes sold below their original list prices, representing a 7% increase over Q1 2018."
"'It's clear that we're at an inflection point in the shift to more of a buyer's market, and the Q2 Forecast provides insights into where and how buyers can capitalize on that, said Jamie Glenn, COO at Knock."
"In its release, the company stated, 'As the market cools, we see a widening of the gap between list prices and sale prices both for accurately-priced and overpriced listings. While a home may have been priced at market value when it was first listed in December or January, that market value may have changed, creating more opportunities for buyers. This difference is even more extreme among homes that have sat on the market, particularly if they were originally priced too high. After years of price increases, many sellers' expectations have not caught up with the market. They continue to unrealistically overprice their homes.'"
"'As the cooling of the market starts moving West, Phoenix is just one example of how the combined effects of a shift to a buyer's market and continued overpricing will take their toll in the form of more savings for home buyers,' said Paul Habibi, economic advisor to Knock."
"Phoenix is just one example of the overall Forecast's shift South: Seven out of the top 10 MSAs for deals in Q2 2019 are predicted to be Southern markets. In addition to Phoenix, Houston, New Orleans and four markets in Florida make the list. This is an increase over the five out of 10 Southern markets that made the top 10 in Q1 2019 both in terms of predictions and actual sales."
From The M Report. "A housing downturn has begun, according to researchers at Trulia. However, there’s no need to panic—this downturn will likely emerge quite differently from the one a decade ago, the researchers say."
"What’s signaling the current downturn beginning to take shape is primarily declining sales volume. This is typical of housing downturns. First sales decline, then prices follow a year or two later, said Trulia economists Issi Romem and Cheryl Young in their recent outlook."
"Sales volume growth began to slow in 2014, plateaued in 2016, and then began to fall in spring 2018. For the past several years, sellers have had the upper hand in an inventory-starved housing market, but this is beginning to change."
"'Housing market indicators such as days on market (which have finally stopped declining), inventory (which is finally building up), and price cuts (which are growing more common), all indicate that sellers are facing greater difficulty in selling,' Romem and Young said."
"One factor that could put additional downward pressure on prices is consumer sentiment. When outlook leads to action, the market can be impacted. 'Housing market shifts have an element of self-fulfilling prophecy: if enough people believe prices are peaking then sellers hurry, buyers hold off and prices fall,' the economists explain."