The Simple Rational Expectation Of, 'Why Buy Today When I Can Get The House At A Lower Price In Six Or Eight Months?'
A report from My Folsom in California. "The Folsom Housing market started out the first quarter of 2019 with a somewhat-expected whimper. We typically see a dip in prices too, and the average price per square foot was down to $259, the lowest since May of last year. First quarter closed sales reflect the activity of the brave, bargain-hunting or relocating buyers, as well as the motivated sellers. Softer demand can result in lower prices."
"As of today, there are 111 homes for sale in Folsom, and 29 of them have come on the market in the past week. A rise in inventory, a drop in rates, a strong economy, and nice weather. For buyers, if you were taking the ‘wait til next year’ approach, next year is here, take advantage of the situation while you can. More inventory means more choices, and lower interest rates means homes are more affordable. For sellers, lower interest rates may help keep prices steady, though I’d suggest pricing it right, and detailing your property for today’s picky buyers."
The Daily Republic in California. " January, February and March all are lower in sold properties than a year ago. Our year over year same quarter comparisons show we are up 0.07 percent in new listings, down minus 13.6 percent in solds and down 14.2 percent in pending sales. The red flag is the March 2018 vs. March 2019 pending sales were down at minus 19.2 percent. That’s a lot fewer homes that will show as sold in April 2019."
"Many of you may be thinking prices will continue to go up but the numbers suggest otherwise. Our Days On Market (DOM) has increased significantly. The days of multiple offers, selling for way over asking price are disappearing fast. In fact, homes are now selling for as low as 96 percent of the sales price as was demonstrated in the month of January."
"So it’s important to understand that a $400,000 listed price should expect a buyer’s offer to be as much as 5 percent to 7 percent less than asking and settle around 3 percent to 4 percent less. Would you accept a $384,000 offer on a listed $400,000 home?"
"The good news, depending on if you are a buyer or seller, is we peaked in pricing about a year ago. We slipped pretty strongly from June 2018 through September 2018 and have now started to recover and what we in the industry term as 'balance.'"
The Coastal Breeze in Florida. "According to the March 2019 Market Report released by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island), the median closed price of homes decreased 5.6 percent to $340,000 in March 2019 from $360,000 in March 2018."
"Another reason for the decrease in median home price is due to sellers pricing their homes appropriately – based on actual comparisons of recently sold homes – to gauge their home’s estimated value rather than pricing their homes based on unvalidated values."
"'When inventory was tight, there was more urgency to buy,' said Wes Kunkle, Managing Broker at Kunkle International Realty. 'But so far this year buyers have been spending time looking around more and at new construction too.' Kunkle added that the Southwest Florida MLS showed 'about 19 percent of the single-family closed sales in March were new construction.'"
"Inventory during March increased in only one segment and place: single-family homes in the Naples Beach area. This area’s inventory increased by 4.1 percent and is where a large majority of 'spec' home building is taking place."
"Brokers reviewing the March report also discussed their concern about how water quality issues and short-term rental limits might impact the Naples housing market moving forward. 'If the county puts limits on rentals we may see a spike in inventory,' said Mike Hughes, General Manager for Downing-Frye Realty, Inc."
From The Epoch Times. "With the home buying season now getting underway, the signs of a moderating real estate market are already showing themselves. For instance, over the past year or so, the national average of housing price increase is a paltry 0.6 percent. This time last year, annual housing appreciation was up 10 percent. This is the–and perhaps part of the cause–of changing buyer perceptions."
"Data from Redfin confirms a shift in buyer behavior. In January of this year, only 13 percent of homes on the market had competing offers, down from 53 percent in January of 2018. Buyer sentiment, at least in the early part of 2019, appears to be less optimistic, if not wary of where the market is headed."
"Perhaps just as importantly, even though wages are rising, home prices are rising faster than wages in 80 percent of U.S. housing markets. That’s a huge factor in how buyers view the market. Not surprisingly, buyers aren’t moving as quickly as they have over the past several years. Plus, with predictions a price drop in real estate just as plentiful as those predicting the opposite, people tend to confirm their own biases."
"Thus, many buyers are waiting before they make an offer. Their thinking is borne of the simple rationale expectation of, 'why buy today when I can get the house at a lower price in six or eight months?' This reasoning has led to offers coming in slower and lower for homes on the market in 2019."
"Many markets are seeing housing surpluses. Inventory is up the majority of the top 50 biggest metro areas of the country, including Los Angeles, Denver, Nashville, Atlanta, Dallas and Boston. It’s a noteworthy irony that half the country can’t afford to buy a house and the other half can’t afford to sell theirs."
"To add fuel to the low interest rate fire, zero-down loans have come back into the mortgage market. Of course, banks have been loosening credit for the past four years to keep abreast with the credit cycle, so the latest round is part of a longer trend. That said, lowering lending standards usually happens when there aren’t enough qualified buyers to keep the housing market afloat, as the most credit-worthy borrowers have acquired their financing. That doesn’t always end well."
From Think Realty. "Leading U.S. counties in foreclosure starts is Los Angeles County, California, which had 837 properties initiating the foreclosure process in March 2019, ATTOM reported. The figure is a whopping 54 percent increase from the previous year."
"Following Los Angeles County is Cook County, Illinois, at 803 properties starting the foreclosure process, ATTOM found, which is a decline of 17 percent from last year. No. 3 Harris County, Texas, reported 546 properties, No.4 Broward County, Florida, posted 381 properties and No. 5 Maricopa County, Arizona, had 377 properties."
"A handful of states are reporting year-over-year increases in foreclosure starts, including Montana (up 48 percent), Minnesota (up 29 percent), Nebraska (up 28 percent), Texas (up 15 percent), and Florida (up 13 percent)."