This Economic Reckoning Comes After Costs Jumped Much Faster Than Wages For Years
A report from the Tennessean. "Home buyers are gaining the upper hand in Nashville as demand continues to trend down this year. The number of unsold homes in the Nashville Metro area sitting on the market in March – 11,510 – was the largest since January 2015. 'Nashville is one of the many places where prices were growing at an unsustainably high rate,' said Zillow economist Jeff Tucker. 'Many buyers appear to be hitting a ceiling in what they can afford in some of the areas that were hot a year ago.'"
"Across the United States, some of the most heated housing markets like Seattle and San Jose are now experiencing the biggest value declines. This economic reckoning comes after home costs jumped much faster than average wages for years. 'By far, the most severe slowdown is in expensive West Coast markets,' Tucker said."
The Seattle Times in Washington. "The national Case-Shiller home price inde showed Greater Seattle had one of the coolest housing markets in all the land when looking at the full metro area. Home values on the priciest level actually dropped a smidgen on a year-over-year basis. Prices even dipped slightly on a month-over-month basis, defying the normal seasonal gains."
"How unusual is that? The last time any segment of the market saw prices drop on an annual basis was seven years ago, when home values bottomed out following the recession. Why the divergence? There are fewer people out there snatching up higher-end homes, making competition less hectic than it used to be. The number of homes for sale across the Seattle area has grown faster in the last year than anywhere except San Jose, according to Redfin."
The Marin Independent Journal in California. "'Total March 2019 home sales in the San Francisco Bay Area were the lowest for that month in 11 years,' said Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst. 'Each month since December 2018 has logged the lowest sales for that month in 11 years.'"
"Patti Cohn, a broker with Compass Real Estate in Larkspur, said some might say the housing market is due for a correction, based on the current upward trend of 118 months that is approaching the longest real estate market upturn on record of 120 months. However, Cohn said she does not see a big collapse as occurred in 2008."
"'Times are really different now,' Cohn said. 'Things are not going down; they’re just going to be flat.' CoreLogic reported that the Marin median price declined 4.7 percent in March to $1.09 million, a drop from the $1.14 million median price posted a year earlier."
From WTOP. "Sellers are still in control in the Washington-area housing market, but the grip may be slipping. Trulia says a year ago, 15% of D.C.-area ZIP codes were trending in favor of buyers. That’s at 45% now. 'How long homes are staying on the market, how common price cuts are becoming and by looking at the actual selling price of a home compared to its original list price,' Trulia economist Felipe Chacon told WTOP."
"'Generally speaking, those ZIP codes that are shifting in favor of buyers are slightly more expensive areas than those shifting in favor of sellers,' Chacon said. 'We’re seeing the biggest shift in favor of buyers on the periphery of the metro [area], in Northern Virginia and Calvert County, Maryland, and the area between Bethesda and Chevy Chase are making the more dramatic shift in favor of buyers.'"
From 27 East on New York. "The number of sales of single-family homes in the towns of Southampton and East Hampton during the first three months of 2019 was 18 percent below the same period last year—while, at the same time, inventory nearly doubled, according to the Elliman Report."
"Single-family homes on the market swelled 93.8 percent, from 1,201 at the end of March last year to 2,327 at the end of March this year. The average sales price fell 4.1 percent, to $1.73 million, and the median sales price dropped 7.9 percent, to $860,000."
"Jonathan Miller, the CEO of real estate appraisal and consulting firm Miller Samuel, prepared the Elliman Report for Douglas Elliman Real Estate. His take on the data is that buyers and sellers are going through a period in which they are recalibrating what value actually is."
"Mr. Miller offered another reason why the high end of the market has gone soft: There was a development boom in New York City and its surrounding areas that followed the 2008 financial crisis, peaking in 2014 and 2015. 'Investors were chasing higher returns all over the globe and looking for tangible assets,' he said, explaining that interest rates were low."
"While the traditional financiers of development, banks, were still licking their wounds, sovereign wealth funds, private capital and hedge funds were investing in real estate. Coupled with investors’ demand for higher returns was the high cost of land. Land was priced for luxury development, so it was 'luxury or nothing at all,' Mr. Miller said."
The New York Post. "This northern New Jersey mansion dates to the roaring ’20s, but it’s certainly not roaring now. The grand property — once one of the state’s most expensive properties — is back on the market asking just $9.99 million. That’s $29 million off its original $39 million asking price in 2013 — a reduction of almost 75%."