All Your Good Ideas Become Bad Ideas
A weekend topic starting with Geekwire. "Q&A: Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman on competing with Zillow, and the potential of real estate tech. GeekWire: It feels like we are in the wild west for real estate technology in the middle of a crazy housing market. What’s your take on the landscape right now? Glenn Kelman: I think there’s a bubble, so part of it is just the amount of capital that’s come into the space. You had $30 million invested in real estate technology companies in 2012, and now it’s $4.5 billion in private capital in 2018, so that has fueled a land grab."
"There’s a feeling now among Wall Street investors, and perhaps the general public, that everything’s up for grabs, that real estate’s really going to change. And when you have 20 percent of the U.S. economy at stake, you’re going to see companies take larger losses and bigger risks to try to win the prize."
"Zillow has done that, Redfin has done that. You’ve got Opendoor and Compass raising billions of dollars in private money. It puts a lot of pressure on all of us. We want to be the source of that pressure, but I think we also feel it, because you know that one day the music’s going to stop, that companies ultimately are valued on their profits. And so at this moment I think we are all taking significant risk, because we see the opportunity, but it’s probably more risk than we had in mind, say two years ago."
"GW: What are your thoughts on the housing market right now? When will it slow down? Kelman: I think we would all agree that the housing market is in the later stages of a bull run. There probably won’t be a correction this year. There may not even be a correction next year, but a correction is inevitable and we’re fairly close to it, just because it’s been such a long bull run. And so I’m painfully aware of that."
"Sometimes when I meet the CEOs of other real estate technology companies I ask, 'Have you ever been through a recession?,' because all your good ideas become bad ideas. And all the people you hired are suddenly at risk. So I think it’s a lot of risk. The music’s gonna stop playing; the shiitake mushrooms are going to hit the fan and all of us hope that we’re the fan and the other guy’s the mushroom, but you have to be humble about the possibility that maybe you’re wrong."
The Avondale Advocate. "IN A NUTSHELL: 'Despite months of declining mortgage rates, the housing market is just not coming around.' WHAT IT MEANS: It just doesn’t seem to be happening in the housing market. Mortgage rates, which hit their highest rate in nearly eight years in November, have declined steadily since then. Yet there are no signs that buyers have reacted significantly to the drop. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes eased in April. That makes two months in a row now that demand was off."
"Two months doesn’t make a pattern, but when you look at sales over the year, it was off by 4.4%, which is not good news. Indeed, so far this year, the sales pace is running about 2.5% the rate posted in 2018. That is really discouraging since mortgage rates have been below last year’s average. In April, moderate weakness in the Northeast and a modest decline in the Midwest were largely offset by a relatively mild increase in the West."
"There was one good piece of data in the report: Inventories are rising. Since so much has been made of the last of supply holding down sales, maybe with more homes on the markets, buyers will be able to find the home of their dreams – or at least one they can live with or in.'"
A open letter in the Berkeley Daily Planet. "This city council wants self-respecting human beings, who still have real human feelings in their hearts, to 'work with them'? First, the city must show that it can actually stop 'working against' the people. We see this priority of 'working against' most starkly in the depletion of the black community. The displacement has been occurring for years. When is city government going to stop working against the low income people of this city?"
"The City Council passed an Inclusionary Housing Act about two years ago, at the height of the displacement crisis. And all it provided was 20% affordable units in any new development – a mere drop in the bucket. And even that was reducible through fees. This was the same moment when a glut in market rate housing was becoming obvious (there were 'Now Leasing' signs all over town). The neighborhoods knew what they needed, what the situation was, and all the city gave them was 20%. In other words, the city has been 'working against' the neighborhoods all along."
The Nevada Current. "When a developer from Tennessee wanted to build a luxury apartment complex on Symphony Park, the City of Las Vegas stepped up with a cut-rate deal — $4.25 million for the 5.25 acre parcel within the city’s redevelopment area. Appraisals for the property ranged from $6,187,000 to $20,580,000."
"Candidate Bruce Feher is opposed to the use of redevelopment resources in areas such as Symphony Park. 'My concern is why are taxpayers subsidizing a luxury apartment complex? I would rather see the City focus more on affordable, safe housing for the poor and needy,' Feher said. 'Once we eliminate homelessness then, I would support projects like this.'"
The Nashville Scene. "I want to stay at the Joseph Hotel. The pictures of the rooftop pool deck look spectacular. The building will tower 21 floors above the corner of Fourth Avenue South and Korean Veterans Boulevard, where I’m sitting as I look at a slideshow of renderings on my phone. Slender, beautiful people (apparently) will adorn lounge chairs and poolside cabanas looking off toward the Nashville skyline. Inside, works of art from the developer’s collection will hang alongside pieces by Tennessee artists. The Joseph will feature luxury, fine dining and all the best amenities."
"But mostly I want to stay there because Nashville taxes are helping pay to construct it. Yes, that’s right. A city that has more tourists than it can say grace over and not enough rooms to house them all is forking over $4.5 million in tax-increment financing to help the developer build what market forces apparently couldn’t: a 297-room hotel just steps away from an area that one month ago threw a three-day NFL party for a few hundred thousand people."
"For about 10 minutes, I just stare at the construction site and one of the many cranes now visible as you approach the city’s center. In the past decade, Nashville has funded more than $200 million in development through tax-increment financing deals, mostly downtown. In the process of creating all of this glitz, we’ve essentially built two Nashvilles. The one downtown drives much of our economy, both inside and outside the Honky-Tonk Industrial Complex. But we’ve also erected a giant party district full of tractors pulling tourists around on flatbeds equipped with thumping subwoofers. Six years ago, did we really want such a huge 'transportainment' industry? Is it really our preference to throw a giant drunken party every night?"
"Which brings us back to the problem of being the 'It City.' What exactly makes us 'It'? Popularity? Culture? Economy? An indefinable combination of factors? Ultimately 'It' is a fleeting concept, never meant to be a perpetual title. We’ve got to stop using 'It City,' because 'It' is meaningless."
"'People are too smug about how fortunate we are now,' late, great journalist and author John Egerton said six years ago. He was right then, and his sentiment is even more right now. There is an air of exceptionalism that has crept into our city’s consciousness, a subtle belief that maybe we’re entitled to our good fortune, that we don’t have to earn it. That’s dangerous."