We Are Witnessing The Crest Right Now
A report from the Express News in Texas. "Terravista Corp. partnerships that own four San Antonio apartment complexes totaling 652 units sought bankruptcy protection this week to stop foreclosure proceedings by a lender. A Terravista official blamed a dispute with the partnerships’ lender for the foreclosure notices and bankruptcy filings. San Antonio-based Terravista was in the process of refinancing the loans on the properties."
"This isn’t the first time a Terravista partnership has entered bankruptcy. In December, the Terravista partnership that owns the 176-unit Hidden Village Apartments filed Chapter 11 to thwart a foreclosure by another lender. The bankruptcy is unrelated to this week’s filings."
From RE Business Online. "The Las Vegas Valley’s multifamily market is at an interesting crossroads, according to panelists at InterFace Las Vegas Multifamily. The average price per unit has nearly doubled between 2014 ($73,627 and a 6 percent cap rate) and 2018 ($131,522 and a 5.4 percent cap), Colliers noted."
"Taylor Sims, director of multifamily investments for Cushman & Wakefield actually appreciates the lower-velocity environment, as he believed the market needed to take a break following a slew of significant sales. 'We had a huge transaction volume in investment sales in 2017,' he said. 'There is such strong rent growth that owners who might have otherwise said they want to sell are now saying, ‘I’ll just sit on it. It’s better served having my money tied up here. I’ll refinance and ride out the Vegas wave.'"
The Spokane Journal in Washington. "After years of historically low vacancy rates in the multifamily housing sector, some observers of the Spokane apartment market claim it’s on the brink of stabilization. 'We are witnessing the crest right now; this is where we’re going to see that start to turn,' says Danny Davis, real estate agent with Coldwell Banker Schneidmiller Realty, who estimates the market will slow within the next six to 12 months."
"Healthy vacancy rates are between 4% and 6%, Davis says; over 6% means the market is oversaturated. Davis notes that the vacancy rates are area dependent—north Spokane has a vacancy rate of 1.3%, central Spokane has a rate of 1.1%, and south Spokane is at 1% vacancy, while west Spokane is sitting at 7.7%."
"'A lot of those units are just coming online,' says Joel White, executive officer of the Spokane Home Builders Association. 'So, what happened is you had a two-, three-year run-up with a significant amount of inventory … and that’s why you’re starting to see more vacancy.'"
"White adds that he’s seen an increase in the number of duplexes being built as more investors try to take advantage of a strong market. 'The bigger investors are very wary of overbuilding,' he says. 'Whereas individual investors, they’re the ones who don’t understand the market as well … just like we saw with the last home market where you had private parties trying to buy investment homes to flip.'"
The Press Herald in Maine. "Maine appears to be nearing the end of an economic expansion that brought several years of rapid growth in commercial and residential real estate activity, according to industry experts. Analysts at a Maine Real Estate and Development Association, or MEREDA, conference in Portland pointed to an accelerating decline in commercial real estate activity as a sign that the state’s relatively hot economy, particularly in its southern region, is cooling down."
"The commercial real estate component of the MEREDA Index, a quarterly measure of Maine’s real estate economy, declined 7.4 percent in the first quarter compared with six months earlier. Commercial sale and lease transactions dropped by 13 percent, and total square footage leased and sold fell by 41 percent, it said. The price per square foot of commercial properties sold decreased by 10 percent."
"'I think that though we’re late in the (economic) cycle and we see in Charlie Colgan’s latest numbers a downswing in commercial activity that probably indicates the likelihood that there’s fraying in the late-cycle market,' said MEREDA Index analyst Tim Soley."
From Billy Penn in Pennsylvania. "At the Community College of Philadelphia, poverty is an open secret. As many as one in five students are experiencing homelessness, and more than half are deemed 'housing insecure.' So many were taken aback when the college last year began soliciting for the Hamilton, its new Center City tower built in partnership with a Main Line developer. 'Luxury' studio apartments there range from $1,400 to $1,700 a month."
"Perhaps unsurprisingly, few community college students actually call the place home. Leasing plum land to developers is largely uncharted territory for community colleges, according to Brent Little, a Texas-based real estate pro and national student housing expert. 'As a rule, student housing developers stay away from community colleges,' Little said. 'There’s very few [partnerships] that have happened in the U.S., and even fewer that have been successful.'"
"But based on a review of minutes, the Hamilton plan appeared to receive little scrutiny from the trustees, who are appointed by the mayor — and many of whom have ties to the real estate industry. 'This project has undeniably overlooked the needs of our current students from the beginning,' said Junior Brainard, co-president of the Faculty & Staff Federation of Community College of Philadelphia. 'We want a college that invests in its students, not in luxury real estate that our students cannot afford.'"
From The Real Deal. "Safe Harbor Equity launched a $100 million distressed commercial real estate debt fund ahead of a potentially looming recession. The Miami-based private equity firm, which specializes in distressed commercial and residential real estate loans, is considering raising the fund up to $200 million, said managing director Ralph Serrano."
"The Safe Harbor Equity Distressed Debt Fund 3 will focus on acquiring distressed commercial mortgages primarily in South Florida, in addition to markets like New York, Texas, California and other major marks in the U.S., Serrano said."
"'While we do see a steady stream of defaults, it’s not required for there to be a recession for there to be defaults,' he said. But the goal is 'to be well-positioned for the oncoming economic headwinds that are being forecasted.'"
"The fund is hoping to capitalize on banks looking get non-performing loans off their books. It will acquire distressed corporate loans starting at $500,000 and up to $20 million for properties that include multifamily, industrial, retail and hotels."
"Other investment companies have launched and closed similar funds ahead of an economic recession. Churchill Real Estate Holdings, aNew York-based firm, has been trying to raise a a $200 million distressed debt fund focusing on a variety of real estate assets from failed condo projects to struggling retail properties."