The Break Is Already Here
A report from National Real Estate Business. "Lenders are understandably exercising caution when it comes to financing multifamily housing development projects, says Robert Murray, chief economist for Dodge Data & Analytics, which tracks construction starts across commercial real estate. 'Notwithstanding the pickup in activity we had in 2018 and notwithstanding the fact that millennials are still looking at apartments as opposed to single-family homes, we view multifamily housing as one of the more vulnerable parts of the construction industry right now.'"
From Connect Florida. "Connect Media asked Marc Suarez, Director of Hunt Real Estate Capital’s Miami office, who specializes in multifamily lending ransactions throughout Florida, to share insights about what he’s seeing in the market right now. Q. As the population of South Florida grows, what does the market-rate multifamily pipeline look like?"
"A. The pipeline continues to be strong, and that is a concern for most when looking at oversupply. For now, anything you can build that is three to four stories with surface parking gives you a strong position in a potential over-supply environment because you have more flexibility in your rent ask, versus mid-to-high-rise development where you have to ask and get a higher number to justify your yield on cost."
The Denver Post in Colorado. "Rent concessions are a sign that an apartment market is seeing supply outstrip demand. Four years ago, they were fairly rare in metro Denver, and then mostly limited to high-end units downtown. Concessions have become more widespread, but they remain absent or minimal in large swaths of the metro area."
"And in those bustling growth pockets like downtown, where developers are looking to fill hundreds of new units, concessions of a month or more of free rent are common, said David Pierce, a senior market analyst at the CoStar Group."
"Developers have focused heavily on luxury units in the urban core, and less so on affordable apartments in the suburbs. All that has boosted demand for older units that a larger share of households can afford and now appears to be contributing to what is emerging as excess supply of the most expensive units."
"'There is some weakness in the ultra-high-end market,' Pierce said. 'There is a limit to how many people are willing to pay $4,000 a month for a one-bedroom apartment.'"
From Bisnow on California. "Perhaps life is too great for landlords in the City by the Bay, where some investors foresee unfavorable political tides being added to rising construction costs, leading to a possible market cool-off. Add labor shortages and sky-high land prices to the mix, and profitable projects are hard to come by, according to some lenders and developers."
"Related California is currently developing $2.5B worth of projects in San Francisco, Chief Development Officer Gino Canori said, including 1,800 homes. But Canori thinks it makes sense to slow investment. 'I think the break is already here,' he said, adding that he wouldn’t be looking to buy a project in the next 12 to 18 months."
From The Real Deal. "New York’s slow multifamily market has continued into the spring, according to Ariel Property Advisors. The market saw a total of 28 deals across 35 buildings worth $636 million in April. This was a 6 percent drop in transaction volume, a 42 percent drop in building volume and a 34 percent drop in dollar volume compared to the trailing six-month averages from October to March."
"In Manhattan, there were nine deals across 11 buildings worth about $284 million. Transaction volume stayed flat, while building volume dropped by 25 percent, and dollar volume dropped by 33 percent. The market in Brooklyn saw declines across the board with just four trades across four buildings for about $91.9 million. These were drops of 38 percent, 64 percent and 49 percent for transaction, building and dollar volume, respectively."
"Queens only saw three deals across three buildings in April for about $26.1 million. This marked a 25 percent decline in transaction volume, a 49 percent decline in building volume and an 85 percent decline in dollar volume."
"The real estate community has placed almost universal blame for New York’s slow family market on the Democrats taking full control of the state government following November’s elections. Activity had been slow throughout the year largely due to uncertainty over how the party would change rent laws in New York. The government officially passed dramatic changes to the rent laws in mid-June, and brokers say it could take a while before the multifamily market picks up speed again given how pro-tenant many of the new laws are."