The Vast Spider Web Of Businesses That Have Sprung Up To Support Investors
A report from the Orange County Register in California. "Chapman University economist Jim Doti sees no housing bubble to burst in Orange County. He explains that local housing prices — easily double national benchmarks — are 'economically rationale given the county’s higher median income, amenities and proximity to the Pacific coast.'"
"Still, Doti notes significant risks in local housing tied to real estate’s three magic words: Jobs, jobs, jobs! 'There is no question O.C. housing prices will fall more dramatically when we have our next recession,' he says. 'The drop in median income caused by the recession will have an exponentially negative impact on prices. But that correction will be temporary and will eventually be ‘corrected’ when incomes increase again.'"
The Denver Channel in Colorado. "For first-time home buyers, finding the right place can be daunting, even scary at times — especially in a market as hot as metro Denver. Our experts say evolving buyer programs can help make down payments cheap or even free."
"'There are positives for doing 20 percent, but the reality is, you could do it for one to three percent down,' said Lori Abbey with Compass Realty. 'It doesn’t take much time at all to build that equity. All of a sudden, they have $100,000 in equity, which is an asset, which is, effectively, a savings plan.'"
From Magic Valley in Idaho. "'I don’t think this year’s market is as hot as last year’s,' Gooding County Assessor Justin Baldwin said. One kind of property, in particular, has seen a marked increase in value: Starter homes priced up to $220,000. Baldwin said properties in that sweet spot 'sell like hotcakes.' Homes that were upper-end back in the ’70s and ’80s s are also in high demand."
"Those two kinds of properties stand out as useful market indicators, Baldwin explained. They’re often the first to start selling in a good economy, and the first to foreclose at the onset of a downturn. Baldwin thinks the market could level out soon. 'Right now, I want to say we’re nearing the crest of a boom,' he said."
"While individual property owners, especially those on fixed incomes, can be frustrated by large valuation increases, government officials typically see property value increases as indicators of good economic times. '(It’s) what you want to see,' Baldwin said. 'No one wants to see a depreciating asset.'"
The New York Times. "The same story is playing out across the country. Investors, fueled by Wall Street capital, are snapping up much of what remains. At first, the flood of capital seemed like a one-time opportunity arising from the collapse of the residential real estate market. Once the bargains dried up, the investors were expected to stop buying."
"Except they didn’t stop. In 2018, investors bought about 1 in 5 starter homes in the United States (defined as priced in the bottom third of the local market), according to CoreLogic. That was even higher than in the early years after the Great Recession and about double the level of two decades ago. In the most frenzied markets, investors bought close to half of the most affordable homes sold last year, and as much as a quarter of all single-family homes."
"Hard-money lenders like Angel Oak are just one thread of the vast spider web of businesses that have sprung up to support investors. 'Wall Street has taken an asset class that used to be something hokey and made it the real deal,' said Martin Kay, founder of Entera, an 18-month-old platform for real estate investors."
"To existing residents, the flood of investors can feel like a threat. 'It’s almost like locusts came down and bought everything up,' said Robby Caban, a neighborhood activist in Atlanta."
From The M Report. "Dr. Ralph McLaughlin, Deputy Chief Economist and Executive of Research and Insights at CoreLogic, noted what the latest HPI’s data means for the housing market. 'The U.S. housing market moderation has now lasted a year, driven by considerable slowing in the nation’s most expensive markets,' McLaughlin stated. 'While the slowdown is most pronounced in these areas, all of the 20-city markets are slowing, suggesting the cooldown has broken from its confines in the West.'"
"Six of the 85 largest metro’s tracked by Redfin saw year-over-year declines in their median sale price. San Jose, California’s 6% drop was the biggest in the nation, and was followed by New York, New York (-2.5%), and Honolulu, Hawaii (-2.2%)."
From Staten Island Live in New York. "After several years of a 'seller’s market,' where home prices were inflated, real estate professionals say houses are now commanding 'market vales.' 'I frankly think the market is going back to [favor] buyers and [prices] are reasonable, affordable numbers -- not out of control numbers,' said Neila Nuzzi, a broker in Richmond."
"'The pace of home sales had tapered off a bit from last years feverish pace, which is healthy for the market,' said Frank J. Rizzo, president of Cornerstone Realty in Annadale."
The Pacific Coast Business Times in California. "It seems like every week I read an article regarding California’s housing crisis. I first looked up the median home price in Ventura County on the California Association of Realtors website and learned that it was $650,000 as of April. Then I went to the Census Bureau’s website and found that the median income in Ventura County is $81,972, while the average income is $107,872."
"Finally, I called my friend Kelly Marsh, who is the vice president of Cornerstone Home Lending in Santa Barbara. She suggested that I use a property tax rate of 1.25 percent, an interest rate of 4.125 percent and a homeowners insurance cost of $75 per month."
"I fed all of this information into an amortization table. What I found shocked me. Assuming that a household can afford the 20 percent down payment of $130,000, total housing costs for a median home in Ventura County are $39,267 a year. That represents 47.9 percent of the median income and 36.4 percent of the average income."
"According to Marsh, most lenders have a maximum debt-to-income level of 45 percent but can increase that limit to 50 percent for strong clients. Thus, even if a household in Ventura County earns the median income and can afford the 20 percent down payment, they will not meet the 45 percent debt-to-income threshold."
"Keep in mind that this does not include other debt the household may have. I did not include estimates for car loans, student loans or any other type of debt. Thus, assuming the household is debt-free and can afford the down payment, it still will not meet the 45 percent debt-to-income threshold. I found that a household has to earn $87,260 to meet the 45 percent threshold. That is $5,288 more than the current level of median income."
"The situation is even worse in Santa Barbara County, where the median and mean incomes are less than Ventura County at $68,023 and $97,025, respectively, but the median-priced home is more at $760,500. In San Luis Obispo County, a median-priced home is the same as Ventura County but the median and mean incomes are less at $67,175 and $87,933, respectively."
"The bottom line, in my opinion, is that we need to start thinking of our housing problem on multiple levels. We need to start addressing the median-income problem as well as the low-income problem."