When You Get Way Overpriced You Will See A Natural Tug Back
A report from Bank Rate. "Homebuyers sitting on the sidelines waiting for housing prices to backslide might be waiting longer than expected, according to experts. Although the high price of housing in many parts of the country seems to signal a possible bubble, the usual signs — like oversupply, an uptick in investors and loose credit standards — are not there."
"The strong demand for housing coupled with a supply shortage is spurring home-price growth rather than speculative buying. A speculative buyer purchases a home with the intention of selling for profit, which played a role in the housing crisis, says Michael Neal, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute."
"'On an annual basis, we’re about 300,000 to 330,000 units short, says Joel Kan, with the Mortgage Bankers Association . 'If you think about the early 2000s and through the crisis, we had price appreciation that outpaced income growth. And we had overbuilding in many markets. When there was a price correction, there was still inventory and demand lessened; that’s the perfect storm,' Kan says."
"Although cooling home prices and waning bidding wars are a welcome reprieve from last year’s housing frenzy, entry-level buyers still face a market with limited options. That means home prices aren’t likely to stop growing anytime soon. Couple this with a tighter credit market and stricter borrowing guidelines, and the looming threat of a housing bubble is unlikely."
"'We could loosen lending standards and still be within very reasonable 2001 to 2003 levels,' Neal says."
The Herald Tribune in Florida. "Foreclosure starts totaled 67 in Manatee County last month, a spike of 139% over the year. The 76 starts in Sarasota County was a 36% increase. But one real estate lender says Florida’s foreclosure run-up is no big deal, at least not yet."
"'To put the numbers in perspective, I would use a full year, perhaps 2006 as a ‘normal’ benchmark number. That would be the last year before the real estate world crashed,' said Bruce Norris, president of hard money lender The Norris Group. 'The total foreclosure starts for Florida in 2006 was 102,875. In 2018, there were 33,031 foreclosure starts. Even at a 25% increase over 2018, 2019 will still be less than 50% of 2006. An increase of some 8,000 foreclosure starts is not a game changer at this point.'"
The Wall Street Journal. "More than 13% of borrowers who used the FHA mortgage in the first three months of this year got government help with the down payment, up from 8.6% five years earlier, according to FHA data published this month."
"Those who use down-payment assistance start out with little or no skin in the game. As a result, some economists and analysts worry that buyers have less incentive to keep making payments if times get tough. In recent years, those who used government down-payment assistance for FHA loans were delinquent at a higher rate than those who didn’t, government data show."
"Sam Mickelson and Tegan Lingbeck, both bartenders, bought a house outside Minneapolis for roughly $250,000 in June and moved in with their four children. They put $1,500 toward the principal, and the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency provided the down payment on their FHA loan."
"'It was super easy,' Mr. Mickelson said. 'It just worked out like a dream.'"
The Houston Chronicle in Texas. "Prices in Houston are significantly above their long-term fundamental value and eventually will start to flatten or turn down slightly, said Ken H. Johnson, a real estate economist and business professor at Florida Atlantic University. 'Housing is a financial asset,' Johnson said. 'When you get way overpriced you will see a natural tug back.'"
"Buyers in the market for single-family homes had more to choose from last month as listings spiked 11 percent over a year earlier and housing inventory grew to its highest level since August 2017. Sales volume has fallen in all but one month since January and inventory is rising. In May, the number of sales fell 2.6 percent from last year, while the median price dipped to $169,000."
From WTOP on Washington DC. "The District is still a tight market for buyers, with few options and buyer competition. By category in the District, the median sales price for a detached home was $818,500, down from $867,500 last May."
From Lehigh Valley Live in Pennsylvania. "We found several homes across Northampton and Lehigh counties that dropped in price this past week. The reason behind the plummeting sale isn't always a negative thing -- it could be the seller overpriced at the initial listing or buyers getting into financial binds and needing to sell faster than originally thought."
The Real Deal on New York. "Nearly 20 limited liability companies for individual multifamily buildings that are linked to a federal fraud complaint are now bankrupt. The filings late last month in a U.S. bankruptcy court in White Plains also relate to over a dozen foreclosure cases initiated by an affiliate of Maverick Real Estate Partners, which in court filings is seeking information on the identity of the owner behind the low-rise, residential properties, all of which are scattered throughout Brooklyn."
"In April 2017, Israeli investors Jacob and Binyomin Schonberg, Binyomin Halpern and Raphael Barouch Elkaim alleged in a complaint filed in federal court in Brooklyn that Yechezkel Strulovich and Yechiel Oberlander defrauded them out of more than $20 million in a scheme carried out 'in the style of Bernie Madoff.'"
"In the fraud case against Strulovich and Oberlander, the defendants said that the money they received from the plaintiffs would be invested in Brooklyn properties that they would buy, develop and rent out, with returns on those investments coming in six to seven months. The plaintiffs also would receive 45 percent of the profits from the multifamily purchases."
"But plaintiffs claimed that Strulovich, Oberlander and other defendants inflated the value of that real estate and used their money to acquire and develop properties for their own personal benefit, pay off personal debts and support their 'lavish lifestyles,' according to the civil complaint filed two years ago. The Brooklyn sites purchased with their funds were 'left to languish, undeveloped and dilapidated,' alleged the plaintiffs."
The Victorville Daily Press in California. "The downturn in the housing market nearly a decade ago resulted in SunCal Companies stalling a massive planned housing development that included the promise of thousands of homes in one High Desert region."
"After years of being placed on hold, dreams of resurrecting the SunCal home development project south of Barstow have died, with Coldwell Banker Commercial now selling the property and two other parcels. The combined properties consist of approximately 6,435 acres of undeveloped land in San Bernardino County, with the largest contiguous group of parcels consisting of 6,027 acres from the failed housing project."
"The master-planned housing community by SunCal was funded between 2006 and 2009 by Lehman Brothers, which went bankrupt and caused SunCal to cease planning and development activity on the Barstow project during that time, Coldwell Banker said. With a need for more housing in California and the High Desert, real estate experts believe the Barstow property is ripe for a new housing project that could see future residents working in Barstow, the Victor Valley, Southern California Logistics Airport and the industrial area of northern Apple Valley."