It's Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. "With a real estate market with a glut of inventory, it takes more than an open house with cookies or cocktails to sell a property. To market a unit at mega-tower 432 Park Avenue, REAL New York developed a marketing concept around the view of Central Park. 'It didn't end up selling when we had it because it was overpriced, but marketing really only goes so far when you get to any possible issues with the actual product,' says James Rozanski, director of marketing."

"The region’s home prices have plateaued in 2019, leaving some sellers disappointed with missing last year’s peak. Year-over-year prices dipped across the region in July, according to CoreLogic data from Bay Area counties: median sale prices for existing homes tumbled 3.9 percent to $1.23 million in Santa Clara, dropped 2.5 percent to $1.45 million in San Mateo, declined 1.3 percent to $630,000 in Contra Costa, and fell 1.6 percent to $800,000 in Alameda."

"'We’re seeing more price reductions,' said Chris Isaacson, manager at Coldwell Banker in Woodside. In the past, he said, 'people were looking at what sold recently and tacking on 10 percent…That doesn’t work any more.'"

"Ramesh Rao, an agent in Cupertino, said lower prices, better selection, and a more cautious group of buyers are slowing sales. Homes listed for $3 million a year ago are priced around $2.7 million, drawing interest with a lower price, he said. Rao added that political and economic uncertainty, including a volatile stock market, changing immigration policy and trade wars, have weighed on foreign-born buyers working in tech. 'They don’t want to pull the trigger,' Rao said. 'All of these concerns are throwing a monkey wrench.'"

"It may come as little surprise that Baton Rouge’s three hottest subdivisions are all in the under-$350,000 market, considering the numbers make it clear homebuyers aren’t gobbling up million-dollar-plus homes—a sector of the market that in July, as reported by Business Report, had amassed a nearly two-year supply of inventory. Millennials generally prefer newer homes, appraiser Winston Landry previously told Business Report, a trend to which he largely pointed as a reason for the local oversupply of million-plus dollar homes."

"At a time when many Chinese investors are retreating from the US real estate market, leaving a trail of troubled projects and financial losses in their wake, Fosun International is poised to notch a significant win in lower Manhattan. But not all Chinese deal-makers are faring so well in the US. Earlier this month, it was revealed that Z&L Properties, will be kicked off a pair of troubled residential projects in San Jose, California, after breaking the terms of its development agreement."

"Earlier this year, China Oceanwide Holdings halted construction on Oceanwide Plaza, its $1 billion mixed-use development in Los Angeles, for two months as the company recapitalised its investment in the debt-laden project. Beleaguered airline conglomerate HNA Group confirmed in January that it had sold a 90 percent stake in Manhattan office building 850 Third Avenue, reportedly at a loss, after picking up the asset in 2016."

"A new report from Dodge Data & Analytics has identified a softening in seven of the country's top 20 markets for commercial construction including multifamily, with some of it tied to declines in the multifamily sector. 'It’s possible to say that both commercial building and multifamily housing are now 'rounding the peak,' after the lengthy expansion this decade,' said Dodge chief economist Robert A. Murray."

"There are concerns that multifamily housing is overbuilt in some markets, the economist said. The markets showing declines during the first half of 2019 versus a year ago were: Seattle ($1.5 billion), down 57%, Miami ($3.1 billion), down 38%, San Francisco ($2.1 billion), down 24%."

"In a bit of good news for Tampa Bay renters, many apartment communities currently have move-in specials. ICON Central, a 15-story tower in downtown St. Petersburg where units lease for up to $5,800, is offering a month’s free rent because some of the amenities are not yet finished. Darron Kattan, managing director of the commercial brokerage Franklin Street, said new rental complexes generally give concessions due to what he calls a 'short-term oversupply' of Class A apartments."

"'Pricing is so high on the investment side now that if they don’t raise the rents, the deal likely is not going to make any sense,' said Kattan. 'So the business plan from Day One is raising rents.' In the end, rents, like water, seek a level. 'If rents go too high, you have to have concessions,' Kattan said. 'Today’s brand-new construction in a year or two isn’t the shiniest new kid on the block. 'That’s where you see rents not growing or going back down.'"

"If you talk with leaders in mortgage, title and real estate brokerage, as I do regularly, you’d think our housing market is about to collapse. The number of transactions and mortgage applications in the last two weeks has dropped significantly in our area, and those industry leaders are worried. Is the drop just normal summertime blues, or is something more ominous lurking over the horizon?"

"Arlington’s numbers this week are low with only 40 ratified contracts and 49 new listings. It’s too early to tell if this is because of weakening consumer confidence influenced by media bombardment about a possible recession coming soon."

"On its face, the claim that since million-dollar homes in Aspen are taking up to three years to sell means that a recession is coming is ludicrous. But if it comes from the mouth of an establishment economist, the mainstream media gives such a silly claim credibility. Mark Zandi fits the mold of an establishment economist perfectly. He has been steeped in Keynesian economics from infancy."

"Following revelations that owners of multi-million-dollar homes in Aspen are having to wait up to three years for them to sell, that listings of unsold mansions and penthouses are 'piling up' on Realtor.com across the country, that less than half of the cars offered for sale at Pebble Beach car auctions are fetching their asking price, and that art auction sales are down for the first time in years, Zandi thinks this somehow portends a coming recession for the rest of us: 'If high-income consumers pull back further on their spending, it will be a significant threat to the economic expansion.'"

"How so? Just how many high-priced mansions can one person live in? How many fancy cars and high-priced art can one person drive, or hang on a wall? How many suits (or pant-suits) can one person wear? How many vacations to Belize can one take? Just how much impact will such extravagance have on the U.S. economy?"

"As Ben Casselman wrote in the New York Times on Wednesday, 'Economists [such as Zandi] are notoriously terrible at forecasting recessions, especially more than a few months in advance.' Adds Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University: 'Historically, the best that forecasters have been able to do consistently is recognize that we’re in a recession once we’re in one. The dream of an early warning system is still a dream that we’re working on.'"

"That’s the malady that Zandi suffers from, along with so many of his establishment colleagues, and gives the rest of us comfort that a three-year waiting list for million-dollar homes in Aspen portends nothing more than wealthy owners wanting to sell are just going to have to wait a little longer."