A Number Of Indicators Are Signaling The Post-Crisis Housing Boom Is Coming To An End
A report from the Seattle Times in Washington. "Every year, the Urban Land Institute and the consultancy PwC publish their Emerging Trends in Real Estate report. 'As this economic cycle entered the history books as the longest in U.S. history, the level of confidence in the real-estate industry has been palpable,' the report reads. ‘Real estate will continue to perform,’ one experienced investment manager said. ‘We don’t see oversupply or overleverage.'"
"Having spent time covering real estate earlier in my career, such statements tempt me to run for the bomb shelter. Developers are notoriously optimistic and some can resemble lemmings running off cliffs, especially late in the business cycle. Then, Emerging Trends’ plot thickens: 'Reinforcing the optimism about real estate’s ability to withstand a recession is satisfaction that the property sector’s discipline in this recovery means that ‘this time it won’t be our fault’ if the economy falters.'"
"To be fair, the report admits to the fragility of the expansion. 'We could be looking at an especially jolting shock to the system,' Emerging Trends warmed. 'In the short run, caution is advisable.' It also reminds us that while coveted West Coast cities are expensive, high housing costs are a national phenomenon.'"
The Marin Independent Journal in California. "The Urban Land Institute ranked San Jose and San Francisco among the top 20 metros for real estate prospecting. The Bay Area scored better this year than in previous years, in part because home prices have leveled off from record highs, said Urban Land Institute senior vice president Anita Kramer. Now, she added, Bay Area properties 'are worth it.'"
"The Bay Area housing market has leveled off after a record run between 2012 and early 2019. The median price for an existing Bay Area home hit a record of $928,000 in May 2018 and has since dropped to $875,000 in July, according to CoreLogic. San Jose is expected to more than triple the number of new apartments from last year, as investors open about 6,000 units in 2019, according to Rent Cafe. The real estate firm estimates this year Oakland will add 1,850 units, Milpitas nearly 1,700 units, and San Francisco 1,200 apartments."
"Dan Ramas, a Keller Williams agent in Santa Clara, said many small investors in rental properties find better returns in outlying suburbs. For example, a $400,000 home in Tracy might yield a similar rent as a $1 million property in San Jose, he said. The market has cooled from last year, he said, and interest rates have dropped. 'It’s becoming a buyer’s market,' Ramas said. 'This is the time for investors.'"
The Orange County Register in California. "Orange County may be on the verge of seeing a gain in home sales for the first time in more than a year, new CoreLogic figures show. But the gain is due more to the length of the housing slump than to a sharp improvement in the local housing market. The median price of an Orange County home fell 2.3% during the 22-day period ending Aug. 26, dropping to $715,000."
"Sales have been down off and on in Orange County since the fall of 2017, with year-over-year drops occurring in 19 of the past 22 months. Last month’s sales tally was competing with already-depressed numbers in August 2018. Orange County home sales still pale compared to August 2017, when 121 more homes sold than in the latest 22-day period."
The Real Deal on Florida. "Adding to mounting signs that Miami’s housing market is cooling down, home sales in the Magic City dropped 13 percent in August, year-over-year, a newly released report shows. In addition to slowing sales, home prices also dipped slightly in August, compared to July."
"A number of indicators are signaling that the post-crisis housing boom in Miami and nationally is coming to an end as home prices have risen to a level beyond income levels. Rising construction costs are also making it more difficult to build affordable single-family homes. Developer Stephen Ross of Related Companies told Yahoo Finance in August the housing market 'is probably in the eighth inning.'"
"Supporting this, a report by Knock said about 88 percent of single-family homes in Miami were purchased in the first quarter after the seller lowered the price. In addition, nationwide, single-family housing authorizations declined for three straight quarters, according to a new report by BuildFax."
The Press of Atlantic City in New Jersey. "A city already battling a high rate of foreclosures and low home ownership could see both problems worsen due to the recent tax increase. 'From a standpoint of understanding the impact the taxes have had on residents of Atlantic City — you can see it. You can see people have walked away from their homes,' said Mayor Frank Gilliam Jr. 'Thirty percent (an estimated figure of noncasino property owners in the city) of taxpayers cannot sustain the city’s woes.'"
"'It’s not sustainable,' said Sheryl Donofrio, 42, who owns a custom-built home on Massachusetts Avenue along with five other lots she and her late husband bought years ago as investments. 'I think people are going to start a fire sale.'"
"The rub for many homeowners is that with the increased property taxes, they may not be able to find a willing buyer. 'It’s pretty sad when you can’t sell your home for the bricks and sticks you invested,' Dorsie Pettit, treasurer of the Bungalow Park Civic Association, said during a recent community meeting."
"'When you have to pay this much more, almost overnight, it hurts. It hurts a lot,' said 71-year-old Anthony Vraim, who has been in Atlantic City since 1972 but has only lived in the resort full time since 2011. 'And we can’t sell our properties because no one wants to buy them.'"