Our Thinking Is When’s The Next Crash?
A report from the San Francisco Chronicle in California. "Bay Area home prices slumped for a sixth straight month in August, according to CoreLogic. Prices year-over-year have now been flat or falling for six consecutive months. From last fall into early this year, inventory grew and price cuts started appearing. Four Bay Area counties posted year-over-year price drops in August, the largest being Santa Clara’s 8% decline."
"Santa Clara and Sonoma counties have seen 'the most dramatic cooling' since the middle of last year, said Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst with the Compass. Those had been the Bay Area’s two hottest markets before the market shifted in the spring of 2018."
"By early 2018, prices in both counties had reached the breaking point. 'It’s almost like people were saying, ‘I can’t do this anymore,' Carlisle said."
"Jordan Levine, the California Association of Realtors deputy chief economist said the new $10,000 limit on the federal deduction for state and local taxes is weighing on home sales and prices in the Bay Area. The limit 'has definitely made renting more attractive than it was a year ago,' he said."
The Mercury News. "Prospective home buyers abandoned the pricey Bay Area market in August, as home sales dipped to a nine-year, monthly low despite falling interest rates and more choices. Sales of existing and new homes fell 5.7 percent from the previous August and were off more than 20 percent from the month’s historic norms, according to CoreLogic. Residential real estate transactions have dropped for 13 straight months, compared to the previous year."
"Median prices for existing homes dropped 8.1 percent in Santa Clara to $1.13 million and fell 4.2 percent in Alameda to $862,000. Santa Clara County prices have fallen in nine of the last 10 months. Long-running trends also show steep declines in both new and resale homes. Sales of existing homes have dropped 7.7 percent though the first eight months of the year, and new home sales have plummeted 21 percent."
"Bay Area new home sales in January hit their lowest levels in at least two decades. Local agents said the market has cooled since a peak last spring, when the median sale price hit $928,000. Buyers have more options and have been more willing to wait for the right home, neighborhood and school district."
"In recent months, shoppers have been willing to wait. Homes that drew 7 to 9 offers last year are fetching 2 or 3 bids this year, said San Mateo agent Jeff LaMont. 'Buyers are being more cautious,' he said."
The Orange County Register. "Agents gathered at the California Association of Realtors conference in downtown Los Angeles weren’t surprised by news the local housing market cooled in August, saying many potential clients are holding back because they don’t want to buy at the peak of the market."
"For example, Frank Hernandez of Century 21 Realty Masters in Montebello, said many would-be homebuyers are wary that the current economic cycle has gone on so long. 'Aren’t we at the point where the market changes? It’s gone past the seven- to 10-year point. So our thinking is when’s the next crash?' Hernandez said. 'Everyone’s waiting for the drop.'"
"At the same time, Hernandez said, some home sellers still are holding out for higher prices. Displaying listings from Downey on his iPhone 6 Plus, Hernandez pointed out the wide disparity in prices for a half-dozen three-bedroom, two-bathroom homes, with asking prices ranging from $639,000 to $850,000."
"'What they’re hoping they sell for doesn’t mean it’s the true price of the homes,' Hernandez said. 'Some of our sellers are going, we all want top dollar for our home. They’re not being realistic, I would say. They expect prices to drop, (but) they want to see if the buyers will bite.'"
"Mission Viejo agent Danube Mazeika, part of the Mazeika team with her husband and son, said many potential first-time homebuyers are staying in their parents’ homes either because they’re waiting for prices to drop, they can’t save for a down payment because they’re paying off student loans or because they don’t understand the benefits of homeownership."
"Mazeika and her son, Conrad, said they worked with several clients who are taking over the loan for their parents’ home and sharing the house with the older generation. Other millennials are skeptical about homebuying because they saw what happened to their parents during the housing crash of 2008. 'They keep asking, when are home prices going to go down,' Mazeika said."