Experts Say Now Is A Good Time To Buy Before Prices Surge Again
A weekend topic starting with two reports from 7 News in Australia. "CoreLogic reports that 2599 homes went under the hammer across all capital cities this week, returning a preliminary auction clearance rate of 72.9 per cent. It believes 'fear of missing out' is again starting to feature at auctions. 'With advertised supply remaining low and buyer demand rising, FOMO has once again become a factor in the market as buyers sense some urgency to buy before prices rise further.'"
"Melbourne had 1217 home auctions this week, with preliminary figures showing 73.2 per cent achieved sales, compared with 1242 auctions and final clearance of 74.3 per cent the previous week."
"First home buyers wanting to get into the market are being told to look to Melbourne's northern suburbs. New research shows the market has been flooded with cheaper properties over the past six months. There have been price drops in several popular areas. Oak Park has dived almost 9.9 per cent with a median house price of $780,000 and Greensborough has dropped 7.4 per cent with the median at $755,000."
"Greenvale has dipped 2.4 per cent with a median house price of $712,000. Experts say now it is a good time to buy before prices surge again."
From CTV News in Canada. "Vancouver’s booming real estate market came crashing down in 2018, but it appears to be recovering faster than expected. 'There’s been a sharp decline in mortgage rates to about 2.5 per cent in some cases,' said Bryan Yu, deputy chief economist for Central 1. 'You're also seeing a price decline of 10 per cent, so buyers are finding it an opportune time to get into the market and make that plunge.'"
"Home sales saw a 20.3 per cent drop in 2018 across the province. 'In 2016, you would have seen many, many, many people buying. Probably a lot of people believing this price increase would go on forever,' said Bryan Velve, a Vancouver realtor who's been working in the industry for 35 years. 'You saw it in condos. They were buying presales and then when the presale was finished, they were selling for a lot more money. That’s not happening today.'"
"Velve said the top end of the market also took a hit. ' The luxury market, which relied on foreign buyers for a great deal of their sales, has suffered greatly,' he said."
"But Yu thinks the attractiveness of buying could push some renters into the housing market and potentially free up rent spaces. 'I think it’s an excellent time to get in,' said Velve. 'We’ve gone the downward trend for a while. If they can afford it, this is an excellent time.'"
Two reports from Better Dwelling in Canada. "The number of new units launched across Greater Vancouver made a very sharp decline. There were 671 units launched in October, down 31.39% from the month before. This represents a 72.24% decline compared to the same month last year. The number is also 31.39% lower than forecasted for the month. Developers in Greater Vancouver have been cancelling and delaying projects. Most are waiting for demand to return."
"Greater Vancouver pre-sales launched in the month sold much fewer units. There were an estimated 302 sales in October, down 14.20% from the month before. This represents a decline of 69.52% from a year before. Vancouver’s pre-sale market is being engineered, but it’s unclear how the dynamic holds. Holding back launches does help remove downward pressure on prices. However, it also means a backlog of future inventory is building. Combine that with existing unabsorbed inventory, and the market needs a flood of new capital to bolster prices."
"Greater Toronto new home prices are still heading in opposite directions. The benchmark price for new single-family homes was $1,074,791 in October, down 3.6% from last year. Condo apartments went higher to $833,827 in October, up 7.5% from last year. Single-family declines are getting larger, while condo price growth is accelerating."
"The City of Toronto seems to be exempt from this new home sales bump. There were only 1,754 new home sales in October, down 40.70% from last year. This is also less than half of the sales in October 2017. Breaking it down, condo apartments are where the slowdown is, with 1,734 sales, down 39.97% from last year. Single-family sales represent just 20 of the sales, down 71.01% from last year."
"Inventory for new homes in Greater Toronto is launching into the stratosphere. There were 19,718 new homes for sale in October, up 5.19% from last year. For context, this is 21.09% higher than October 2017, when it was considered a the tight market. This is the most October inventory since the condo glut of 2015."
The Globe and Mail in Canada. "This summer, agent Andre Kutyan counted more than 80 properties listed between $3-million and $6-million in and around the St. Andrew-Windfields neighbourhood south of Highway 401. So, in late September, he slashed the price of this nearly 6,200-square-foot house from $4.998-million to $4.798-million."
"'Only about 17 sales have happened in the last six months – less than three sales a month in the area – so you have to be right on the money with price, even aggressive, to attract buyers,' Mr. Kutyan said."
The San Jose Spotlight in California. "Silicon Valley has seen massive growth since the 2008 Great Recession, but one local market expert estimates the market is 'frothy,' signaling that the region may have finally hit a peak and could begin to slow in the near future. 'Most of the people from San Francisco, Silicon Valley, think that we’re probably in the top of the cycle,' said Alexander Quinn, JLL’s director of research for Northern California."
"Quinn sees several headwinds for Silicon Valley, including the housing and labor shortage, the cost to rent or own space in the region, and construction costs. 'We go through (gold rushes), we fall on our face, we lose all our money, come back again about 10 years later, and we do it over and over again,' he said. 'We’re at kind of a gold rush frothy period right now.'"
From City Journal in California. "California’s housing crisis, particularly in the Bay Area, is notorious and well covered. But a surprising and encouraging piece of news emerged from Oakland recently. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, Oakland will produce almost 50 percent more housing units this year than San Francisco—6,800 versus 4,700—though Oakland has half the population and only 40 percent as many jobs as San Francisco."
"Just as surprising is the jump in Oakland’s housing production: the number of units brought to market in 2019 will be almost 15 times the number completed in 2018 and more than three times the number of units produced between 2013 and 2018 combined. What caused this burst of production? Simple: Oakland told developers that they could build homes."
From Variety on New York. "The Midtown Manhattan apartment of soon to be not-married actors Christina Hendricks and Geoffrey Arend — they announced their split last month — is now available at $1.25 million. The reduced ask a notable chunk below the too-rosy original $1.4 million price tag and only a bit above the just shy of $1.2 million they paid for the modestly sized if not exactly inexpensive condominium about 4.5 years ago."