If This Lasts, Folks Are Going To Need To Sell
A report from Realtor.com. "'The biggest initial coronavirus hit will be felt in the tourism and hospitality industries,' says realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. These are the same places where folks tend to buy vacation homes. 'Second-home markets tend to be hit a bit harder in a recession. … When people are cutting back, that's where they'll cut back,' says Hale. The luxury home market is also expected to feel the pain."
"We looked at the counties with the highest percentage of workers in the industries that are most likely to be affected. The most vulnerable county was Horry County, SC, home to Myrtle Beach, with a median county home list price of $239,050 as of February, according to the most recent realtor.com data. It was followed by Clark County, NV, where Las Vegas is located, with a median county list price of $329,050; Atlantic County, NJ (Atlantic City), at $250,050; Orange County, FL (Orlando), at $359,950; and Orleans Parish, LA (New Orleans), at $349,050."
"Rounding out the top 10 were Honolulu County, HI, at $636,050; New London County, CT (Mystic), at $287,550; Monterey County, CA (Carmel-by-the-Sea), at $1,173,050; Chatham County, GA (Savannah), at $325,050; and Prince William County, VA (Washington, DC, suburbs), at $480,050. 'It's a very difficult time right now for Myrtle Beach and other areas like it,' says Robert Salvino, director of the Grant Center for Real Estate and Economics at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, SC. 'Transactions will decline.'"
'Second-home markets are the first to be affected' by a recession, says Salvino. 'People are going to hold off on buying until they know they’re secure and prioritize affording the first home.'"
"In Atlantic County, home to Atlantic City, NJ (No.3 on our list), folks struggling to pay their bills may sell their vacation homes to help alleviate some of their expenses. 'Some people rent [out] during the summer season to help alleviate some of the expenses,' says David Fiorenza, an economics professor at Villanova University in the Philadelphia suburbs. 'It’s going to be harder for people if they have two mortgages, one at their primary residence and one at their secondary residence.'"
"The market in Monterey, CA, an affluent, seaside county just south of Silicon Valley, is already beginning to stall. The market is split between primary and vacation homes. There has been only 12 closings for Monterey County homes costing $1.5 million and more as of March 18—typically, that number would have been closer to 30, says real estate broker Andrew Oldham of Compass, who's based in Carmel-by-the-Sea. But now he's seeing extensions, cancellations, and mortgages that are taking longer to process. Some sellers are pulling their properties off the market or even dropping prices."
The Norman Transcript in Oklahoma. "Rob Cole, regional manager of Gold Financial Services in southwest Oklahoma City, said the industry was a seller's market before COVID-19 came to the United States. 'Before we walked into the utter and complete chaos, it was a seller's market, 100 percent. Homes were going for top price, little to no closing costs. In today's market, I feel like it's going to switch roles and become a buyer's market,' said Cole, who serves the metro area. 'If this lasts, folks are going to need to sell.'"
"Regarding mortgage rates, Cole described the market as very volatile. 'We saw a massive drop in interest rates due to coronavirus. What happened is your large investors became overwhelmed with trillion dollars of refinance business. So what that did is it triggered a rate increase … The coronavirus has the interest rate market specifically all in a huge turmoil.'"
"Oklahoma City-based Fox Mortgage CEO Thomas Wilson, who serves the entire state, said what brokers do is pick out lenders on behalf of their borrowers for the best interest rates and programs. However, 'the disparity between different lenders of where the interest rates are is bigger than I've ever seen.' He said the market fluctuates so rapidly that about an hour after he has quoted a certain interest rate, that number has changed."
"'That kind of volatility, I've never seen before,' Wilson said. 'What it normally takes six to nine months to do is moving in hours. It's making it pretty tough to tell clients where we're at because nobody knows.'"
"Wilson said his mortgage refinance load is currently big due to previously low interest rates, which has backed up lenders. Now, some lenders have exited the market, others are no longer doing refinances and rates have increased. Wilson said lenders are scared to give really low rates because it will be tough for them to sell loans onto the secondary market. Also, people are worried about their ability to repay loans."
"'You might be a qualified buyer right now, but if unemployment hits 20%, they're kind of worried about people being able to pay back the mortgages they just got for the home they just purchased,'" Wilson said. 'It's a frenzy. It's really just unprecedented times that we've never seen before. I'm having conversations with borrowers that I've never had to have before.'"
The New Orleans Advocate in Louisiana. "As the worsening coronavirus crisis puts a clamp on the region's tourism industry, owners and operators of short-term rental properties in New Orleans say they face an uncertain future. Devrim Hayes, who owns an Airbnb rental property in Treme and manages two dozen others there and in the Marigny, Mid-City and the Warehouse District, said the rentals have been swallowed by a wave of cancellations."
"'It had been rolling,' Hayes said. 'All my properties had been booked for weekends, even weekdays, at top prices.'"
"But the bookings quickly evaporated as the cases of people diagnosed with COVID-19 increased. 'Starting the second week in March all the way up to mid-June — the prime money-making months — all reservations that had been confirmed all are canceled,' he said."
"The entire lodging sector in New Orleans is in the same predicament since New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell and Gov. John Bel Edwards began taking drastic measures to contain the virus. The city saw an explosion in short-stay rentals in recent years. There were an estimated 8,500 units operating at the end of last year before Cantrell and the City Council passed restrictions."
"Hayes said he has been desperately searching for alternatives, including renting to some of the medical personnel who've come to the city. 'I would love to put them up for free if I had all the money in the world,' he said. 'But I’m losing my income for four months, and some of the owners (of properties he manages) had just invested and have mortgages, furniture expenses and all that stuff. I feel for them.'"
"For owners like Cindy Sehon Zandi, who owns a short-stay rental house in the Bywater area, converting an Airbnb property into a longer-term rental is not an easy choice to make. 'Do you just wait it out and hope for the remainder of the calendar year it will open up? Or do you settle for much less income and know at least you have something coming in?' she said, noting that the house might rent for around $2,000 a month — a quarter of what it would make via Airbnb during peak months. 'Right now, we're just waiting it out and see how it goes,' she said."
From Arlington Now in Virginia. "We’ve seen quite an uptick of Just Reduced homes in recent weeks. Riding an incredible wave of news, with Amazon’s local HQ2 announcement leading the charge, the Just Reduced options were few and far between in 2019. Here in 2020, amid the COVID-19 crisis, the numbers are telling us that more folks are willing to budge in terms of preliminary pricing to get their homes officially sold."
The Wall Street Journal on New York. "Just as the Manhattan residential real-estate market was shaking itself out of a multiyear slowdown, the party was suddenly over. Sales spiked during the first quarter, but now the market has all but shut down, brokers say, as fears of the new coronavirus and worries over the economy take hold. 'The market is dead, dead, dead,' said Donna Olshan, a broker who tracks the luxury Manhattan market."
"Already, major brokerages have announced cutbacks. Compass told employees it had cut 15% of its staff. Realogy, a publicly traded company that owns major brands such as Century 21, Corcoran and Sotheby’s International Realty, announced temporary salary and workweek reductions. Other firms are still assessing the situation."
"Diane Ramirez, chief executive of Halstead, said managers were reviewing all aspects of the business. 'We know we have to be fiscally responsible,' she said. 'We are doing a lot of talking about it.'"
"In the first quarter, the median price of a Manhattan apartment was $1.065 million, a drop of 6.25% from the same quarter last year. The average price was $1.88 million, falling 10.3%, because of a decline in sales of apartments for more than $10 million."