No One Can Say What A Fair Price Is Right Now
A report from the Wall Street Journal. "Airbnb Inc. is considering raising capital from new investors, as the home-sharing giant wrestles with escalating losses due to the devastating impact of the coronavirus pandemic on its global business, according to people close to the company .The San Francisco-based startup, which lets people list their properties for rent on its marketplace, has racked up hundreds of millions of dollars in losses this year, one of the people said. All its major markets are getting hammered."
"Co-founder Nate Blecharczyk’s tweet on the congressional requests provoked a storm of online comments from hosts. One typical response: 'That’s nice that you’re asking the government to bail us out with loans since @Airbnb has bankrupted us. I literally have $23 in my bank account right now.'"
From Reuters. "The NAR said it was difficult to predict the short-term effects of the coronavirus on future sales. Economists, however, anticipated a sharp decline in sales and possibly home prices, citing previous recessions. 'Since mortgage agreements effectively constrain many homeowners from selling properties at a loss, sellers must delay any planned sale until the economy recovers,' said Kwame Donaldson, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics. 'This all translates into a steep decline in existing home sales during recessions.'"
The Seattle Times in Washington. "As late as last week, the mounting number of coronavirus cases in King County seemed to be having a negligible affect on the housing market. But uncertainty has started to creep in. Seattle-based brokerage Redfin, citing market uncertainty, announced Wednesday in an SEC filing that its home-flipping division would temporarily stop buying new homes. 'With whole cities shutting down nearly all commerce, no one can say what a fair price is right now, so we’re not making any instant offers,' said CEO Glen Kelman in a statement."
The Orange County Register in California. "We’re in uncharted waters and stuck making guesstimates based on 'BC' data. That’s stats 'before coronavirus.' But I’ll bet that housing markets with high overvaluation are at greater risk of price reversals. 'The broad spread of coronavirus in the U.S. will slow down home buying activity, leading to a temporary drop in demand and lower home price growth,' Fitch wrote. 'A widespread and protracted period of containment could result in larger disruptions to local economies, higher unemployment and home price declines.'"
"On a scale of zero bubbles (no bubble here) to five bubbles (five-alarm warning) … THREE BUBBLES in California and up to FIVE BUBBLES in Nevada and Idaho. Let’s face the harsh reality: Only a handful of industries are immune from coronavirus and its related shutdowns, bans, limitations and shortages. That means lots of job losses. And out-of-work folks don’t buy homes while those who already own have trouble keeping them."
From Socket Site in California. "The list price for 1160 Florida Street has now been further reduced to $2.95 million, down a million (26 percent) since the home was priced last year but a sale at which would be considered to be 'at asking' according to all industry stats and aggregate reports. The sale of 1160 Florida Street has now closed escrow with a contract price of $2,837,650 or roughly $1,030 per square foot. And while that’s officially 'within 4 percent of asking' according to industry stats, and with only '40 days on the market' as well, it’s roughly 29 percent ($1.16 million) below its original price when listed five months ago."
"Keep in mind that the number of homes on the market in San Francisco hit a 9-year high earlier this week and the percentage of listings with at least one official price reduction had ticked up to 17 percent, all prior to the COVID-19 lock-down."
From South Coast Today in Massachusetts. "'It’s a challenging time right now,' said Paul Chasse, chief executive officer of the Realtor Association of Southeastern Massachusetts. 'We’re in uncharted territory right now to some extent.' Buyers are worried about job security and the long-term economic impact of the outbreak. 'We have seen a few people who have decided to hold off listing their homes as this happens,' Chasse said. 'A few people have decided to pull their homes off the market. We’ve also had a couple buyers walk away due to concerns about being laid off.'"
"'With almost no winter this year, the market’s been pretty steady through December, January and February,' Chasse said. 'Inventory is very, very low. Houses were selling for good money. Then it just stopped a couple weeks ago.'"
"'I definitely think it will slow things down a bit,' said Darlene Alferes, president/broker of Alferes Realty. 'But there are still a lot of buyers out there ready to purchase. But there’s also a lot of concern from people about their job security and stuff like that. I have heard of a few people not in my office — from lenders I’ve worked with — saying they’ve had things fall apart because people have been laid off.'"
From Mansion Global on New York. "Manhattan home listings and agreed-to deals were significantly down in the first half of this month compared to their historic average, among the first definitive signs that coronavirus is impacting the borough’s housing market. There are already signs the uncertainty has stymied activity at the highest end. Last week, for example, only one home asking more than $10 million went into contract, according to a report from Olshan Realty."
The Globe and Mail on Canada. "Real estate activity is humming in Southern Ontario and Montreal but starting to slow in other Canadian cities as major industries shutter and slash jobs due to the novel coronavirus pandemic. In Vancouver and Victoria, realtors say there are still some multiple offers, but calls are drying up. One Vancouver realtor said activity was bumpy, with one property drawing many viewers, while others 'were like ghost towns.'"
"Mike Stewart of Oakwyn Realty Downtown Ltd. put it this way: 'We have cancelled all our open houses, and it is dead as a door nail out there.' In Ottawa, another city that has seen a jump in sales and double-digit price increases, some realtors said no one is calling. 'Everyone is in panic mode. We get a lot of calls, and it just stopped completely,' said David Haynes, a realtor with Royal LePage Team Realty in Ottawa."
From Bloomberg. "A freeze is settling on commercial property markets. And the tendrils of frost are spreading to industrial properties, apartments, and even student housing — usually stable in hard times. As the coronavirus spreads, all the once-reliable havens are mired in uncertainty. 'On the investor side, there’s widespread panic,' said Alexi Panagiotakopoulos, partner at Fundamental Income, a real estate strategy firm. 'There’s downward pressure on every aspect of every asset class.'"
"Lack of consensus about the current or future value of assets is also threatening property sales, closing an exit door for investors and landlords. Without clarity on those big questions, investors will be reluctant to part with their cash. Investment activity could fall by 45% this year in the U.S., which would be more than the decline following the 9/11 terrorist attacks or the 2008 financial crisis, according to Kiran Raichura, senior property economist at Capital Economics."
"Already, large deals are collapsing or getting postponed. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board’s planned sale of a 50% stake in the 900 million pound Nova development in London’s Victoria district collapsed on Friday. Singapore-based ARA Asset Management Ltd., which was lined up to purchase the pension fund’s half of Nova, will no longer complete the deal, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because the details are private."
"ViacomCBS Inc. said earlier this week it’s suspending plans to sell Manhattan’s Black Rock building because the outbreak has prevented would-be buyers from visiting the property. It’s also unclear what will happen with mall owner Simon Property Group’s $3.6 billion bid to buy rival Taubman Centers Inc. Both mall operators have closed most of their properties and Taubman’s shares have been trading below the proposed deal price for more than two weeks."
"In the U.K., more than 11 billion pounds ($13 billion) has been frozen in property funds with appraisers warning that the virus makes it impossible to assess their value. The merger of brokers LSL Property Services Plc and Countryside Plc is already on the scrap heap and other deals in London are being delayed. China’s office market, meanwhile, was being hit by plunging rents and high vacancy rates amid slower economic growth even before the coronavirus. Office vacancies in Shanghai, China’s financial heart, may climb to 28% next year, according to Colliers International Group Inc."
"Shares of U.S. real estate investment trusts, particularly those that own malls, have been hammered. Brookfield Property Partners LP, which made a big bet on malls with its $15 billion acquisition of GGP Inc. in 2018, expects its tenants to face 'severe consequences' in coming weeks with substantial parts of the economy shut down."
"Companies such as Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. and Caesars Entertainment Corp. have been tapping backup loans to shore up their finances. The sudden threat to tenants that pay rent is an unwelcome shock for office and warehouse landlords. For retail and hospitality property owners, it could be fatal. 'The implications could be far-reaching, but quantifying these is highly speculative at present,' said Matthew Saperia, an analyst at Peel Hunt."
"With so much uncertainty, the availability of credit is shrinking. New financing for hotels, malls and senior living has mostly disappeared. And debt that’s reliant on income from building tenants is suddenly very risky. As much as 15% of loans on commercial property could default over the next couple of years if there’s a recession, according to Mark Fogel, CEO of Acres Capital, a private commercial real estate lender."
"Large commercial lenders such as Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. and Arbor Realty Trust Inc. have seen their stocks plummet during the virus-fueled market turmoil. 'Nobody knows where deals will be priced and nobody knows just how long this issue is going to affect the world and how much it’ll affect the underlying collateral,' Fogel said."