The Downward Spiral In House Prices Will Continue, With Oversupply Remaining The Biggest Risk
A report from Bloomberg. "As the outbreak spreads, real estate markets in the U.S. and other countries that rely on Chinese buyers face a looming crisis as deals languish and potential purchases are delayed indefinitely. From Vancouver to Singapore, realtors are facing the same problems as their counterparts in U.S. that rely on Chinese buyers: With hundreds of millions of Chinese effectively quarantined, it’s hard to sell real estate. 'People were planning to do open houses in early February and obviously the turnout wasn’t as good,' said Jerry Huang, an agent in Vancouver. 'Many investors aren’t planning to come at all.'"
"In California, where 34% of foreign purchases were from China last year, Keller Williams broker associate Coco Tan has taken to wearing a surgical mask to open houses and greeting clients with a wave rather than a handshake. Tan, who was born in China, said that normally about 25% of her clients are Chinese. With flights canceled, most have postponed visiting until after the summer, she said. 'I tell them that I have some nice properties that I saved for them,' Tan said."
The Australian Financial Review. "The effects of the coronavirus have already hit the housing market in Melbourne's premium suburbs, with travel restrictions preventing would-be buyers from coming to inspect properties aimed squarely at buyers from mainland China. McGrath agent James Moss last month cancelled the auction planned for a newly built five-bedroom house in the prestigious suburb of Balwyn North that he was advertising with a price guide of $3.3 million to $3.6 million."
"'We had to cancel the auction as we had two to three buyers who weren’t coming,' Mr Moss told The Australian Financial Review. 'In the top end, we are feeling the pinch. We've really lost that overseas connection with the coronavirus.'"
"The effects of the virus that triggered a 10 per cent slump in the Australian sharemarket last week, as well as a further 0.8 per cent decline on Monday, is prompting caution, even in lower-priced segments of the market, such as the $1 million to $2 million range, said Marshall White Stonnington agent Justin Krongold. 'It’s a talking point across the board,' Mr Krongold said."
The Strait Times in Singapore. "Buyers will have the upper hand in the private residential market this year. Sellers may need to check prices and sweeten their offers, with unsold inventory rising amid falling demand from China due to the coronavirus outbreak. About 40 new project launches are in the pipeline while last year's unsold inventory stands at 30,473 units, said CBRE Research. It noted in a report that Singapore will be a buyer's market this year and potential customers will be spoilt for choice. 'In the light of the Covid-19 outbreak, Chinese buyers are unlikely to feature in the short term,' it added."
"Buyers from China accounted for 19.3 per cent of new home purchases in the central core region last year. Developers may be motivated to reduce prices or give discounts when the stock of unsold homes increases over time with upcoming launches, CBRE said."
From Edge Properties Malaysia. "Property companies must prepare to get the right talent in order to push buyers into the market to clear oversupply of properties in the country, according to a recruitment agency, Randstad Malaysia. The agency also noted the COVID-19 outbreak, first reported December last year, will undoubtedly impact the buyers’ market as a result of travel bans and additional precautionary measures implemented by companies."
From Reuters on Dubai. "The downward spiral in Dubai house prices will continue this year, albeit at a slower pace than in 2019, with oversupply remaining the biggest risk, a Reuters poll showed. 'Oversupply is the single largest contributor to Dubai’s declining residential prices, with continued project launches, coupled with rising levels of unsold developer inventory, continuing to place downward pressure on values,' said Chris Hobden, head of strategic consultancy at Chestertons MENA."
The Times of London on Italy. "In the centre of Florence, the situation was no less dramatic, with many people sporting face mask. It is the latest blow to the Italian economy — and housing market — which has stuttered and stalled more times than a vintage Vespa. As a result, sellers are finding ever more creative ways to entice buyers, from whole villages on sale for €1 to six-figure price cuts and even a return to staged payments: a way of buying that dates back to Roman times."
"Two years ago, Martyn and Margaret Lewis decided that they wanted to sell L’Olmo, their farmhouse in the hills above Florence, and move back to England to spend more time with their family, but they have failed to find a buyer, despite reducing the price from €1.35m to €995,000. 'The market has been depressed for a while,' Martyn says. 'Brexit has had a bearing on British buyers, while others have been put off by the Italian economy. Then there is the terrible oversupply.'"
The Property Industry Eye on the UK. "There are too many new homes in England, says a report which says that two-thirds of local planning authorities are over-delivering. The report from investment bank Goodbody flies in the face of widespread claims that there is a housing crisis caused by lack of supply. Goodbody says that there is 'continuing over-supply' across England."
From Airdrie Today in Canada. "According to the 2020 forecast from CREB, 'Improving demand & easing supply are helping push the Airdrie market closer to balanced conditions. However, the market continues to remain oversupplied, weighing on prices, which declined by three per cent in 2019. It will take some time before prices stabilize, but if these adjustments continue, we could start to see prices level off in 2020.'"
The Los Angeles Times in California. "'American Idol' creator Simon Fuller is finally moving on from his Bel-Air estate. The Georgian-style manor just sold for $28 million. It took Fuller more than a year to unload the mansion. He sought $35 million at the beginning of 2019 and trimmed the price to $32.5 million in October, according to the Multiple Listing Service."
From CNBC on California. "Located in the Hollywood Hills neighborhood of Los Angeles is the “Shark House Mansion” — a $23 million mega-home with real sharks that live inside. The L.A. mega-residence first hit the market in September 2018 for a jaw-dropping $35 million. After a year and a half of no bites, and three price cuts later, it’s currently listed for $22.9 million. Along with that $12.1 million price reduction, there’s also been a change in brokers."
From Multi-Housing News on New York. "Real estate investment firm BH3, which purchased the non-performing loan on a luxury condo skyscraper in Manhattan’s Financial District last July, has followed up that move by selling the debt to an arm of Japan’s SoftBank Group for $230 million. 'As it stands now, the foreclosure’s ongoing,' Daniel Lebensohn, principal & co-founder of BH2, told Multi-Housing News."
"Oversupply and a weakening market have brought Manhattan’s high-end condo boom to an end, while creating opportunities for investors. The Financial District saw an 18.8 percent year-over-year drop in the number of apartment units sold in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to a market report by Platinum Properties. Median price per square foot was down 5.2 percent compared to the previous year, with all sectors recording a decline except for studios. 'The uber luxury is just in a deep freeze,' noted Lebensohn. 'The more bite-size Manhattan luxury sub-$5 million—and specifically the $3 to $5 million category—I think has some momentum, but it’s not what it used to be.'"