The Net They Thought Policymakers Were Holding Out For The Market Wasn’t There At All
A report from the Palm Beach Post in Florida. "As the coronavirus spreads, travel and other economic activity has slowed or stopped. Florida’s $1 trillion economy relies on tourism more than most states, so the slowdown here is likely to be especially dramatic. 'Florida is vulnerable because travel and leisure are going to take the biggest hit,' said Mark Vitner, an economist at Wells Fargo. The last time the U.S. economy fell into recession, the culprit was widespread speculation in the housing market. 'Even though we grew for 10 years, consumers didn’t overdo it,' Vitner said. 'Households are in pretty good shape. The housing market isn’t overbuilt; in fact, it’s underbuilt.'"
From CNBC. "After falling to a record low just two weeks ago, mortgage rates are surging higher again. This as real estate agents try to deal with a new normal in what was supposed to be a busy spring housing market. Higher-priced housing markets are likely to see more of an effect, as buyers are more influenced by moves in the stock market. The recent rout already has New York City buyers pulling back, and that is the case in other major metropolitan markets."
"'The immediate effect has been to the downside, concern and fear associated with the unknown,' said Steven Cohen, an agent at Keller Williams in Boston. 'Aversion to congregating at open houses and worry that asset devaluation, equity devaluation will bring the overall economy down, including the value of real estate.'"
The Journal News in New York. "Those interviewed by The Journal News/lohud say the outbreak came to Westchester County during a bull run for the single-family real estate market. Sellers in Westchester, said Jonathan Miller, of real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel, have had to come down on pricing in recent years to meet the new market expectations. And the potential reduction in inventory due to the virus, coupled with favorable interest rates, may push sellers already in the market to consider further discounts."
The San Francisco Chronicle. "In just a few short weeks, the coronavirus, or more specifically the economic uncertainty resulting from it, has already begun to have an impact on the Bay Area real estate market. Buyers who were counting on stock market sales to cover their down payments are putting their searches on hold while the market is erratic. Others who have already liquidated and have cash on hand are rushing to put offers in during this brief window where Bay Area buyers may actually have the upper hand."
"'I spoke with a few brokers today who mentioned their sellers aren't looking for multiple bids, and just want their listings sold quickly,' said agent Par Hanji. 'International clients are watching from a distance. Out of state parents helping their children buy are pausing too.'"
"In Seattle, where the company is based and which has been ground zero for coronavirus cases in the U.S., Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman said there has already been a significant drop in demand from both buyers and sellers since the first COVID-19 deaths there at the end of February. Since the Bay Area is running a few weeks behind Seattle in terms of novel coronavirus cases, it could be that the worst is yet to come."
The Globe and Mail in Canada. "The Bank of Canada slashed interest rates Friday for the second time this month, a move that came as sentiment had begun to darken in the country’s real estate market with the spread of the COVID-19 crisis. 'Pure economic reality set in,' said Ron Butler, a broker with Butler Mortgage Inc., which is licensed in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia. 'I have gone from extremely enthusiastic about real estate and mortgages to ‘what the hell?’ right now.'"
The Geelong Advertiser in Australia. "The Queenscliff home of late cartoonist Ron Tandberg has finally drawn in a buyer. The parkside character house with bay views has been traded for an undisclosed sum after the initial $3 million asking price was slashed by more than $1 million. Fletchers, Queenscliff selling agent Charles Caldwell said he could not reveal further details about the sale. However, Mr Caldwell had previously dropped the asking range to $1.75 million to $1.85 million after taking over the listing."
From Stuff New Zealand. "Take a stroll around your neighbourhood one evening and you might not even notice the overgrown lawns and drawn curtains. Yet thousands of empty 'ghost houses' continue to haunt the authorities dealing with NZ's housing crisis. According to the last census, there were more than 39,000 unoccupied dwellings in the greater Auckland area alone, a near 18 per cent increase in five years. That figure is higher than far bigger global cities. London, with a population of 9 million, has 25,000 empty homes, according to UK government data."
"The problem isn't confined to Auckland. A total of 196,506 homes were left unoccupied across the country at the 2018 census, according to Stats NZ. The figure includes homes with no current occupants, unoccupied properties being renovated, baches, and holiday homes. Beyond our biggest city, Tauranga also has thousands of ghost houses, with nearly 5000 classed as unoccupied. The prized Queenstown Lakes District has more than 5600 empty properties, while in Christchurch, there were almost 13,000 vacant residences, according to the census data."
"Housing Minister Megan Woods aid it was 'not a black and white situation, and we don't fully understand why some of these houses are not fulfilling their role as a home.'"
From Nikkei Asian Review. "When Susan Yu received a call from Danke in February, she was baffled. Danke Apartment, which manages more than 350,000 housing units in China including Yu's home in Xi'an, told her she needed to vacate the apartment as soon as possible because the landlord did not want to rent the place anymore, according to Yu who signed a one year lease with Danke that is supposed to end in October 2020."
"Most major metropolitan areas in China were still under lockdown in February due to the coronavirus outbreak, and residential complexes have set up access control points to bar entry of all non-residents. According to Yu, this means it is nearly impossible to find a moving company or a new apartment. 'What if I caught the virus during the move? Is Danke going to be responsible for that?' Yu wrote in a blog post."
"The bigger problem for the nascent co-living industry is that Yu is not alone. Dozens of similar cases have been reported in the past two months at Chinese consumer complaint resolution platform BlackCat, a website and app for customers to file complaints, as well as offering mediation services between the customers and businesses. More than a few tenants are now unable to pay rent because they couldn't return to work and some are not getting paid on time or at all as businesses they work for are also struggling."
"'The business model of co-living is essentially no different from leasing properties and turning them into co-working spaces,' said a venture investor based in San Francisco who specialized in the real estate sector. 'WeWork has yet to prove the co-working model works after almost ten years, and it is difficult for me to believe the co-living will work when they are facing even stronger competitive headwinds in the residential property market.'"
From The Standard. "Kenya's real estate industry is tittering on the very edge, following industry reports and data provided by the Central Bank of Kenya. Over the past few years, countless properties whose worth runs in the billions have been put up for auction after various forms of loan defaults. Auctioneers are now decrying the current state of the market, disclosing that they were stuck with countless properties that had received zero offers for years."
From FM 104 in Ireland. "Campaigners say Dublin City Council isn’t doing enough to bring vacant properties back on the market. The Dublin Renters Union have held a protest outside a luxury apartment block on the south side, where the majority of units are lying empty. Rents at the One Ballsbridge building cost up to five-thousand euro. Peter Dooley from the Renters Union wants the government to bring-in a vacant property tax: 'There are more than 30,000 vacant homes in Dublin. Renters Union held a demo outside a luxury apartment block in Ballsbridge. Rent there is €5k a month and majority of units are lying empty."
The Portugal News. "BE political party calls for vacant properties in Lisbon acquired under golden visas to be requisitioned for public purposes and to reinforce the housing offer by making them part of the Accessible Income Programme. In the motion signed by the BE councillor in Lisbon, Manuel Grilo, to which Lusa had access and which should be presented on 12 March, in a private meeting of the municipal executive, it is defended that the municipality urges the Government 'to proceed with the survey of vacant properties acquired in connection with the granting of gold visas.'"
"'Despite the opacity of the data related to this process, the bias in the price per square metre and the lease through real estate speculation, produced by the easy and guaranteed business of gold visas, is recognised today,' reads the motion. The statement continues by saying that 'selling Portuguese citizenship in exchange for an investment of €500,000, has introduced unacceptable discrimination.'"
The Wall Street Journal. "In the widespread disruption sown by the novel coronavirus epidemic, investors find themselves facing an economic problem the Fed can’t solve for them. Because rates were already so low, the central bank’s ability to help bolster the economy using conventional tools is severely limited. Up until last month, many investors were operating under the assumption that the Fed’s easy-money policy was destined to keep pushing stocks higher."
"It was back to the Fed put, in other words—the notion that, like a put option on a stock, the Fed effectively was insuring investors against market downturns. That placed equities at a much higher starting point as investors began to understand the seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic. Worse, as stocks tumbled investors realized that the net they thought Fed policymakers were holding out for the market as it performed its high-wire act wasn’t there at all. It is yet another reason why so many are assuming the brace position at the same time."