This Building And Buying Binge Looks Poorly Timed Today
A report from Bloomberg. "The U.S. housing market, which was headed for a hot spring-selling season, may not be so healthy after all. Some owners will choose not to list their properties until the crisis is over, fearful they won’t get a good price. But in a recession, others could be forced to sell, according to George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com. 'If there is a marked economic slowdown accompanied by job losses, that would put a lot of pressure on homeowners,' he said. 'We would see a change in the inventory situation. Instead of a severe shortage, you would start to see inventory ramp up as people get interested in offloading.'"
The Orange County Register. "California’s tourism bubble has burst, an economic victim of the coronavirus outbreak. But tourism had been cooling, not crashing, well before anyone knew of a novel virus quietly stirring in China. For example, hiring in California leisure and hospitality businesses has been halved in the past two years. Ponder this job boom this way: Tourism added 281,000 jobs in eight years as California employment grew by 2.9 million. That’s almost 10% of all statewide hires for an industry that employs less than 7% of all California workers."
"And remember tourism’s awkward issue: It doesn’t pay like a boom business. The average annualized pay of all California leisure and hospitality workers (a government employment grouping larger than tourism) was $36,700 at year-end 2018, roughly half the typical statewide wage. Now, if that amount of tourism spending at risk doesn’t make you gulp enough, economically speaking, here’s what VisitCalifornia detailed as 'secondary impacts.' The re-spending of travel industry cash by businesses and employees — some 795,000 additional Californians."
"Nowhere in tourism did the boom change thinking more than in the hotel business as building and buying took off. Between 2017 and 2019, California hotel owners added 29,000 new rooms, according to Atlas Hospitality. In the previous seven years? Just 23,000. Those who bought, not built, acquired 297 California hotels worth $6 billion last year, Atlas reported. Now that’s down by one-third, in deals and dollars spent, from the 2014-15 peak."
"This building and buying binge looks poorly timed today. The Dow Jones index of hotel-owning real estate trusts shows these stock prices slashed by one-third in the past month. Alan Reay, Atlas’ president, says there are some panic responses going on. But serious business is being lost. Reay mentioned that one 300-room Orange County hotel was initially overbooked last week. When the food expo was postponed, just 16 rooms were paid for."
"Reay says many businesses outside of tourism will just be sitting on unexpected inventory during this economic disruption, products they can later sell. In tourism, 'once the day is over, that business is gone forever,' he said."
The Los Angeles Times in California. "Oakland native and retired Raider Langston Walker just took a loss in his hometown, selling his contemporary home overlooking the bay for $1.75 million. That’s $100,000 shy of what he paid for it in 2007, records show. The offensive tackle made more than a few changes during his 13-year stay, adding neutral tones, maple floors and hand-painted murals in the guest bedroom. In total, the home holds four bedrooms and 4.5 bathrooms in just over 4,000 square feet."
From Curbed on Florida. "The southwestern coast of Florida is packed with well-preserved midcentury gems, but one of its most unique is this four-bedroom, four-bath home on the Gulf of Mexico. The main house sits directly on the beach, and behind the house is the thick Florida jungle and a natural creek. The grounds and the home both need work, but the home offers an alluring prospect for a preservation-minded buyer. Love what you see? 1100 Sunset Drive originally hit the market last year for $2,400,000, but had a recent price reduction to $1,900,000."
From Dutch News. "Amsterdam city council handed out permits for just 77 new homes in the final quarter of last year, down 95% on the previous year, according to an analysis by ABN Amro economists. 'These permits were largely given to housing corporations. There was not one single permit for a private company,' economist Madeline Buijs said. 'The new rules about the types of housing which can be built, and the high costs, are likely to be behind the downturn.'"
From C-Tech on Israel. "With 51 cases of coronavirus (Covid-19) now confirmed in Israel and the country’s recent decision to effectively shut down its borders, the local tourism industry—and more specifically its booming short-term apartments business—has suffered a massive blow. In some cases, it appears that homeowners who have grown accustomed to a high annual return from short-term rentals are not interested in the low-yielding long-term rental, preferring to put the apartments up for sale."
From Business Day on Kenya. "A grandeur home with a rustic appeal in Nairobi’s posh neighbourhood has been in the market for over three years. It was built in leafy Karen, which is near international schools and shopping malls. There are only nine other such homes sharing five acres, an advantage to the privacy-seeking ultra rich. It is perfect but it has no buyer. The only problem is the price. It goes for Sh115 million."
"Nili Godhia in charge of Greater Kitisuru area at Pam Golding, a real estate company, says unsold homes in areas such as Muthaiga could cost the seller over Sh50,000 every month in maintenance. Over the past few months, prices of luxury homes have dropped. For instance those located in Muthaiga have come down by 30 per cent, according to Nili."
"'Historically, demand for these properties has been there from investors and homeowners, who could enjoy high capital appreciation and the trappings of modern living. But then came 2015 and 2016, when the supply overtook demand and the prices began declining. Consequently, investment in the high-end residential market slowed down considerably,' says Sally Rugano, a senior property agent at Knight Frank."
The South China Morning Post. "Buyers spurn Hong Kong’s first home sale in two months, as Covid-19 outbreak adds weight to a slumping property market. China Evergrande sold 49 of the 141 flats on offer at the second phase of its Emerald Bay project in Tuen Mun as at 5pm, even after increasing the discounts on each unit by HK$20,000 per square foot to an average of 14 per cent, from the previous 11 per cent, according to sales agents. 'Everyone is worried,' because the coronavirus 'epidemic is so serious,' said Louis Chan, vice-chairman of Asia-Pacific."
The Guardian on Australia. "The growing probability of Australia’s first recession for nearly three decades could 'stop the property market in its tracks,' according to industry experts, as the coronavirus outbreak threatens to wreak havoc on one of the economy’s key sectors. While a massive cut in interest rates, government stimulus and a ramping up of Chinese demand saved Australia and the housing market from the worst of the banking crisis in 2008-09, things might not work out so well this time around."
"A greater risk is that the outbreak will trigger a job-cutting recession where there are fewer buyers, and owners are suddenly forced to sell if they can’t make ends meet. Another threat to property, or more specifically mortgage availability, comes in the shape of a possible credit crunch. The spread, or difference, between what US companies pay to borrow money and the headline bank rate is widening and it could start to choke off the supply of capital to Australia’s banks."
"Digital Finance Analytics principal Martin North, a long-time property market sceptic who analyses data from household surveys to get an inside view of the sector, has already detected a tightening of lending. 'The uplift in prices since last year has been based on greater credit availability. The average first-time buyer loan has increased from $380,000 to $420,000,' he says. 'But there are signs that borrowers are finding provisional loan offer not being converted into funding because banks are pedalling back on the offers.'"
"'Funding costs are beginning to rise and it could well be the beginning of a credit crunch,' he said. 'Banks are coming under more funding pressure and margins are compressed. Although they passed on the rate cut last week they don’t have much wriggle room left. As rates are cut, banks lend less because they can’t make as much. Mortgages are less available, not more.'"
The Globe and Mail in Canada. "As public health officials, companies and politicians struggle to centralize a response to the novel coronavirus there are signs the decentralized world of short-term rental accommodations has its own specific vulnerabilities. 'Airbnb is facing the worst collapse of the travel industry since who knows when,' said Dror Poleg, co-chair of the Urban Land Institute’s Technology and Innovation Council in New York. 'Airbnb thrives on conferences and large events, many of which are now postponed indefinitely.'"
"'Coronavirus is a coup de grace, it’s the last thing they needed,' said Mr. Poleg, who argues Airbnb was already facing increased competition from online travel agent giants such as Expedia and from international hotel chains such as Marriott, which may be better positioned to manage the coronavirus fallout."
"'New listings are still outpacing any increase in rental demand so if we see a year over year decline in rents [last month they were flat], that would be quite bad for confidence from investors,' John Pasalis, CEO of President Realosophy Realty Inc., said. 'We have heard from investors who prefer to cash out after having a hard time renting their units,' he said, and while he thinks an uptick in defaults is unlikely, declining rental rates could slow demand for condo presales. 'I believe [that] is highly possible if rental prices start trending down, and if we happen to hit a point were resale condo prices start to decline.'"
"On message boards for Airbnb hosts in the Greater Toronto Area, the coronavirus is a hot topic. 'My bookings are drastically down for the first time ever and had my first cancellation the other day,' wrote one host under the name Joanne Azelis. 'I’ve never been without bookings, NEVER!! It’s a massive loss of income.'"