People Trying To Sell Want To Do It Quickly But Buyers Have Really Dried Up
A report from Atlanta Agent Magazine in Georgia. "The country is much better positioned to rebound from the current recession than in the Great Recession, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. The housing shortage in Georgia is likely to help keep prices at pre-pandemic levels, he added. 'We had a housing shortage pre-pandemic — when we come out of this, I think we will still have a housing shortage and, therefore, the home prices expectation is nothing like 10 years ago with prices collapsing 30%,' he said. 'Home prices will remain stable, and one thing Realtors may want to do with their past clients is say, ‘Aren’t you glad you have a home where you are building equity, unlike the stock market with huge volatility.'"
"One big concern about post-pandemic home sales is if the lending industry follows the lead of JPMorgan, which increased the credit score requirement to 700. Along with a minimum down payment of 20%, some buyers might wait for the economy to even out. Yun said it is a bad decision on the part of lenders, who he believes are increasing credit score requirements because of the influx of refinance applications. 'I think they should just hire more people to work through this process,' he said."
From Your Sun in Florida. "Jason Ester, Realtor with Re/Max Anchor in North Port, is fascinated with the market’s peculiarities, and hopeful, too, despite what he’s seeing in the North Port market. 'I just had four sales that fell apart in the past week,' Ester said. 'Two lost their deposits. Buyers have really dried up.' 'Both (potential) buyers said, I’ll just hold off until this (pandemic) blows by and will get back to you,' he said."
"He said people trying to sell want to do it quickly but people are not visiting. He said a company that tracks showings said they have dropped off by 70-80 percent."
"There are other concerns brewing in the lending world. 'One of my buyers recently got a text from the VA about their pre-approval' being reconsidered, Ester said. 'For a VA loan, this is pretty scary. This is the first I’ve heard of it.' She called it 'scary.' 'I want to see this market on the upswing. I’m hoping we get some pent up demand after this is over,'" he said."
"The National Association of Realtors issued an email newsletter on April 8. It address some concerns with passage of the CARES Act and regulatory actions underway. 'Wild swings in mortgages rates have hampered many deals,' according to NAR. 'Initially, rates jumped hurting many transactions that were near closing.' The Federal Reserve began buying mortgaged-backed securities March 20 to lower and stabilize rates. 'However, many lenders continued to tighten requirements because of problems getting mortgage servicers to take on new mortgages, particularly on lower credit or higher debt-to-income loans,' it said."
The New York Times. "Four of the five cities most vulnerable to the financial impact of the coronavirus are in Ohio, where cities rely heavily on income tax, a Brookings Institution report found. In California, Los Angeles County is expected to lose $1 billion in sales tax revenue this fiscal year. And in New York City, where tourism and hotel tax revenue are among the losses, Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city faced a revenue shortfall of up to $10 billion."
"Beyond the basics, what is a city without its public spaces — movie theaters, restaurants, concert halls? And why pay exorbitant prices to live somewhere if those disappear? 'What was New York is gone,' said Josh Dorf, a businessman who lives in Tribeca. 'When I go outside here, it’s like a movie set downtown here. It’s empty and boarded up.'"
From Mansion Global on New York. "It seems two is the operative number in New York City these days. For the fourth week in a row—since New York’s Gov. Andrew Cuomo declared the city 'on pause'—two luxury homes went into contract in Manhattan last week. According to Donna Olshan, author of the weekly Olshan Luxury Market Report, which tracks Manhattan homes asking $4 million and up, it’s the first time since the report started in 2010 that the exact same number of contracts was logged for four weeks in a row."
"Reflecting life—and real estate—in the time of coronavirus, Ms. Olshan reported that in the last four weeks, the eight contracts have totaled $71.22 million in volume compared to 84 contracts totaling $675.5 million in the same four-week period in 2019."
The Star Tribune in Minnesota. "The Twin Cities housing market enjoyed a robust start in March but stumbled under the weight of a pandemic economy and a government stay-at-home order that stopped showings in their tracks. For now at least, the pandemic is having the most profound effect on buyers who have the least — and most — amount of money to spend. Pending sales of houses priced at less than $190,000 were down by double-digit percentages while sales of houses priced at more than $1 million fell by nearly 40%."
"'Buyers in the luxury segments are far more susceptible to large swings in the stock market. Just think of someone who had a net worth of $3 million at the end of February could’ve been worth $2 million by late March,' said Patrick Ruble, president of the St. Paul Area Association of Realtors. 'Job losses in the leisure, hospitality and retail sectors have disproportionately affected buyers who would’ve purchased homes under $200,000.'"
The Aspen Daily News in Colorado. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting national and local economic impact is likely to upset an otherwise strong year for the local real estate market. Economists from major investment bank are predicting, on average, that the U.S. economy will shrink in 2020 by 4.8% in the first quarter and 27.5% in the second quarter before rebounding by 13.5% and 12.5% in the third and fourth quarters, if the fight to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic is successful."
"In addition, the unemployment rate is skyrocketing to levels of potentially 15-20% or more — levels not seen since the Great Depression. What could all of this mean for the Aspen-Snowmass real estate market over the next year or two? The first likely outcome is a significant drop in the number of transactions and overall volume. If we look back to the 2008-09 Great Recession, the U.S. GDP declined just 2.2% from the first quarter of 2008 to the beginning of third-quarter 2009, when the recession ended. During that period of time, the Aspen-Snowmass real estate market experienced a 48% decline in total sales and sales volume. It’s very likely that the local real estate market will repeat that pattern in the next year or two."
"The second likely outcome is a decline in values. During the Great Recession, property values declined 25-36% from the market peak at the end of 2007 to the market bottom in the fall of 2009. If the volume of sales declines dramatically as it did during the Great Recession, it’s also likely the market could experience a decline in values on the same scale as we saw during the Great Recession."
The Great Falls Tribune in Montana. "Spring has (almost) sprung, and all across Great Falls, contractors are sifting through the last of the snow to uncover job sites and get to work. But when they abandoned last year’s projects for the winter, they never imagined that the coronavirus would drive the whole world indoors. While some construction businesses and contractors have taken hits, many have been able to continue working or make adjustments to stay busy."
"General contractor Munroe Enterprises, Inc., has seen a drastic slowdown in business. Owner Mark Munroe said the company has had some of its larger jobs pushed back and has had to resort to smaller residential work to keep busy. 'To stay alive, we’ll just pick up anything we can,' he said."
From Mansion Global on California. "A Spanish Colonial home newly built on the former estate of Georgia Frontiere-a prior owner of the NFL team Los Angeles Rams-in the Bel Air neighborhood of Los Angeles, has changed hands for $43.3 million, listing records show. The 1.68-acre property with a 20,000-square-foot house was listed in October 2019 for $75 million. The price dropped to $68 million in January and went into contract April 13. The sale closed the following day for $43.3 million, according to listing history on Zillow."
"Dubbed Bellagio Estate, the home was designed by Don Ziebell of Oz Architects and took three years to build, having been complete in 2019, according to the previous listing. The seller, a limited liability company which could not be immediately reached for comment, bought the property for $38 million in 2015, per property records."
From News West 9 in Texas. "Thanks to the oil bust combined with COVID-19 running through the country, it seems that more people are trying to get out of the Permian Basin. All Star Moving Laborers in Midland has noticed that people are hiring them to either load up their belongings into storage units or to move their belongings from apartment to apartment in the search for cheaper housing. But they've seen almost nobody moving to Midland in the last month."
"'I can say probably out of 50 moves in general, maybe one person or one family came in. We are having a large exodus of people leaving the Midland-Odessa area,' Monica Mauldin, Owner of All Star Moving Laborers said. Combine the oil bust and COVID-19 with some of the highest rent in the state, Mauldin understands why people would want to get out. 'I also think that Midland is just too expensive to live in right now if they are not gonna get their jobs back after the bust recovers,' Mauldin said."
"Losing a job is something that's becoming a little more common right now. 'I think the dismay is there and people, I don’t know if they’re gonna come back again. But I know that they want to get out of here, and so it’s pulverizing for us,' Mauldin said."
"While people continue to move out at this time for any number of reasons, Mauldin expects even more people to leave this area once the virus loosens its grip on the country. 'Right now, I think people are just waiting for that moment when the country opens back up so that they can go ahead and leave because they don’t wanna be exposed to anything. You know, they’re really trying to stay in their home. They don’t wanna even be exposed to us,' Mauldin said."
"But Mauldin believes there is an upside to all of this. She believes that by having a large number of people leave, businesses could actually benefit by being able to staff more employees. She also thinks that it might be easier for people to afford housing in the area."