Sellers Are Realizing, This May Be My Only Buyer, I May Need To Come To The Table And Negotiate
A report from Mortgage Professional America. "In a recent report that examines county-level housing markets and their vulnerability to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, Attom Data Solutions found that 24 of the 50 most at-risk markets are in New Jersey and Florida. COVID-19 will only exacerbate the problems homeowners in these areas are already struggling with, particularly those who purchased at the peak of the market. Attom’s chief product officer, Todd Teta says they will face the biggest issues if prices drop and they start owing more than their homes are worth."
"'What impact that will have is hard to gauge, but it increases the chances for a repeat of what happened in the aftermath of the Great Recession of the late 2000 and early 2010s, with rising foreclosures or people simply walking away from their properties, unable or unwilling to keeping paying off debt,' Teta said."
"Further COVID-19-driven disruption in these markets could have appreciation-killing consequences: a lack of demand for housing drives down prices; a rise in foreclosures drives up inventory; a rise in the number of vacant properties lessens the appeal of once-attractive neighborhoods. 'Additional damage may then affect individual homeowners' finances if values drop because it reduces their equity, cuts into their ability to borrow money against their property and lowers the profit they can make on a home sale,' said Teta."
From Westword on Colorado. "'I'm not seeing any dramatic move in prices,' says Victoria Macaskill, an independent broker and co-owner with husband Mike Unruh of Denver Homes. 'But what I am seeing, and what I had not seen before, is that sellers are more inclined to negotiate.' Potential buyers have grown more cautious. According to Macaskill, 'Their biggest driver is job security. Definitely some of them are concerned about their health, but they're more concerned about whether they'll have a job in two or three months.' Moreover, with creditors tightening requirements, fewer people are able to qualify for loans, 'so they're sitting on the sidelines. And that's pushed activity down.'"
"As for sellers, 'They're not seeing the multiple offers' that were so common in Denver prior to COVID-19's rise. 'In early March, I listed a home in Arvada that got seven offers. But if I was listing that home today, I don't think I'd see multiple bids. So sellers are realizing, 'This may be my only buyer. I may need to come to the table and negotiate.'"
"One example: 'I had a buyer who offered $20,000 under list, and the seller didn't even come back and counter us. Had it been two weeks earlier, there's no doubt we would have seen a counter from that seller. So it's shifting into a market where sellers are saying, 'I have to negotiate.'"
"If the bottom falls out of the Denver market, will the city be flooded with speculators eager to snap up properties and sit on them until times get better? 'I'm not seeing that in a big way yet,' she replies. 'But conversations I've had with investors is, 'Hold on to that cash, because cash is going to go a long way in the future.' Because real estate is not as reactionary as the stock market or the employment market, it could be six to twelve months before we see the best opportunities, especially since the government has provided stopgaps and forbearance programs to help people avoid foreclosures. So I don't think the sharks are circling yet. They're waiting to see what's going to happen.'"
The Tampa Bay Times in Florida. "Back in February, Sara Witte and her husband decided to hold off putting their Palm Harbor three-bedroom, 2½-bathroom home on the market because they had heard March was the best time to sell a house. By the time they listed the home on March 13, the world was swiftly becoming a different place. 'Once the stay-at-home order got put into effect, it was like radio silence.'"
"The Wittes had already purchased a new home in Jacksonville in preparation for their move, spurred by a job change. So out of fear of carrying two mortgages — especially in a time when future income is not guaranteed — they dropped the asking price $9,000. After one potential buyer fell through, they’ve resumed showings."
"When told about the number of homes coming off the market, Gallagher, a St. Petersburg real estate lawyer, said the figure was shocking. 'Those are anomaly numbers,' he said. 'Deals have been voluntarily killed … (because) buyers are saying, ‘I just lost a job,’ or lost interest and a seller is saying, ‘There’s no point in keeping it on the market trying to wait it out.'"
"Gallagher added that he’s seen an uptick in calls from buyers trying to pull out of contracts because they’re afraid their employment will change and they won’t be able to afford the house they signed up to buy. 'If you’re someone who relies on an employer and has any risk of being furloughed, laid off or losing employment then you’re thinking, ‘I’m going to be conservative and start saving,’ he said. There is 'fear and trepidation for being locked in (to a home purchase) and you’re setting yourself up for disaster if you’re a buyer.'"
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. "At the start of the year, the percentage of homeowners who were late with their mortgage payments fell to its lowest level in more than 20 years. But that was before the COVID-19 pandemic clobbered the U.S. economy and led to more than 20 million job losses. Now lenders are bracing for a rise in missed loan payments and rising foreclosure rates. 'Home loan delinquency and foreclosure rates were the lowest in a generation before the COVID-19 pandemic hit,' said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. 'Recession-induced job losses will fuel delinquencies.'"
"Mortgage firms aren’t taking any chances. They are raising required credit scores and ramping up requirements to get a mortgage.Housing analysts worry that stricter lending standards will slow home sales and make it harder for the residential market to recover when the economy turns back on. 'It is a concern because the momentum we had in the housing market was coming, in part, from younger prospective homebuyers, such as millennials,' said Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. 'The tightening of the credit box is likely to prevent some of these potential buyers from the market.'"
"'This not only holds homeownership attainment back, but it has ripple effects,' he said. 'For most of such buyers, they must be able to sell their existing home in order to buy new construction. So a tightening of lending standards can displace sales higher up on the housing ladder.'"
"With the worsening economic environment and sharp declines in home purchases, Zillow economist Sklar Olsen said the mortgage companies are struggling. 'The higher mortgage requirements are another implication of the sheer volume of requests for forbearance and refinance against the difficulty of assessing credit worthiness in an economic environment of rapid job loss,” Olsen said. 'To the extent that higher credit standards are a way of saying the pipeline is overwhelmed, timing is going to be everything for the more marginal buyers, who need the forbearance, refinance or aid checks yesterday.'"
The Falls Church News Press in Virginia. "Like most of the country, the usually strong housing market in the Northern Virginia area practically hit a full stop in mid-March and is now seeing the effect of that slow down bear out in monthly reports on its activity. Pending sales, which represent long-term confidence in the market as they translate to actual sales down the line, were down almost 17 percent by the end of the month compared to March 2019."
"'I haven’t even come up with a word yet that makes sense of this craziness. There has been a huge change,' Reggie Copeland, treasurer for NVAR, said. 'It’s interesting because in January, February and the beginning of March, the talk was having a struggle of inventory…As soon as Covid[-19] got into the mix, I started seeing changes right away.'"
"Only one type of seller seemed motivated to move their property right now, according to Copeland — investors of rental properties where the tenant lost their job and had to move out. Copeland said in his experience and when speaking with other agents, that template fit a good chunk of their clients."
"The City of Falls Church — a small, but hyper-competitive housing market — saw some pronounced consequences from the pandemic as well. Per Showingtime data, home sales dropped from 14 to nine year over year while pending sales slid from 27 last year to 20 this year. Median sales prices took a dive as well, sinking from $816,200 in 2019 to $633,115 in 2020. Overall dollar volume was nearly halved, plummeting from $12.24 million last year to $6.78 million this year."
"Before it gets better though, plan on it getting worse. Or as Copeland said, 'Expect the April numbers to blow us away.'"
The Los Feliz Ledger in California. "Property owners and landlords with 15 or fewer units can access help to avoid foreclosure through the Los Angeles County Disaster Help Center. 'We recognize the COVID-19 health emergency has resulted in significant job loss and loss of income for thousands of L.A. County property owners,' said Joseph M. Nicchitta, director of the county Department of Consumer and Business Affairs. 'As a result, the number of property owners seeking foreclosure avoidance will increase.'"
"Counselors fluent in multiple languages are available to help property owners work with lenders to: — temporarily reduce or delay payments; — modify loans to decrease payments, drop the interest rate or extend the length of the loan; and — agree to a short sale to sell the home for less than you owe and settle the debt."