Suddenly Investors Have Unrentable Units To Carry, Many Will Find They Have No Alternative But To Offload
A weekend topic starting with the Wall Street Journal. "More than 600,000 small businesses were created in Airbnb’s inaugural year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Half of them were out of business within five years. Only one-third were still standing at the end of 2019. 'There’s this crazy idealism that founders have,' Brian Chesky, one of those Airbnb founders and the company’s chief executive, told me this week in a video chat. 'They’ve learned to cope with a lot of adversity and have a lot of resilience.' He notes Airbnb launched four different times before success. When times get tough, entrepreneurs like him look to the 'metaphorical mountaintop.'"
"The coronavirus crisis has companies like Mr. Chesky’s wondering whether the menacing clouds shrouding that mountaintop will ever lift. And, despite the grit and creativity it took for someone to found this disruptive company, skeptics worry Airbnb may not be around long enough to reach it. Mr. Chesky said 30 investors expressed interest in providing funding."
"My colleagues have reported in recent weeks, however, that this round of fundraising wasn’t a bed of roses. Its valuation is much smaller than it was, falling to $18 billion, according to the Journal’s reporting. The first round of $1 billion came at a steep price, with an interest rate north of 10%, and the second $1 billion came with a 7.5% plus Libor rate. Some investors declined to put in money after Airbnb said it would not replace Mr. Chesky. Mr. Chesky said he’s enjoyed largely favorable press over the years and that while recent reports feel like 'a little bit of a punch,' he’s confident investors and his board back him."
From Bloomberg. "The question that’s difficult to quantify is just how much damage a collapse in the Airbnb economy could cause to the $16 trillion U.S. mortgage market. The anecdotes on social media immediately spread like wildfire. Many centered on the idea that so-called 'superhosts' — those who consistently meet certain thresholds including near-perfect ratings, a large number of bookings and infrequent cancellations — have taken out mortgages on several properties, banking on Airbnb income to cover those payments."
"Now with little to no cash flow, they’ll soon default on those mortgages, the thinking goes. In large enough numbers, that would bring about a reckoning. This is a compelling narrative. After all, a quick online search reveals articles such as 'HOW TO MAKE MONEY WITH AIRBNB (OVER $10,000 PER MONTH!),' which comes from a millennial Ohio State graduate who lives in Los Angeles and manages nine listings in Columbus."
"It includes advice such as 'by leveraging your debt capacity, you will be able to effectively invest more money than you would otherwise be able to.' If newer hosts were the ones clamoring for Airbnb to offer support, maybe they’re the most overleveraged."
The Mountain Express in North Carolina. "Richmond Hill resident Leanna Echeverri says she and her partner are complying with current regulations and doing what they can to stay positive during the pandemic. After investing about $5,000 in renovations to create a private entrance and space inside their home, they launched the short-term rental in March 2019. 'Almost immediately, we were booking like crazy,' Echeverri recalls. But a year later, everything has drastically changed. Her seven April reservations, spanning 21 days, have all fallen by the wayside. Those rentals were Echeverri’s main source of income; her partner works at Whole Foods Market."
"Making matters worse was the fact that, even before the pandemic kicked in, 2020 had begun with a low occupancy rate. 'We kind of trudged along during those winter months,' Echeverri explains. 'We saved money to get us through … and planned to play catch-up when March and April came around. … But that’s been pulled out from under our feet.'"
The Times of London in the UK. "Brian Chesky had hoped that 2020 would be the year in which he could convert paper riches into something more tangible. The boss of Airbnb aimed to float the room-booking app for more than $50 billion, crystallising multimillion-dollar paydays for his long-serving staff. Covid-19 has laid his ambitions to waste. The freeze in tourism has thrown Airbnb into turmoil. Faced with a collapse in revenues, it is scrambling to shore up its finances."
"While Airbnb describes itself as 'an economic empowerment engine,' it has angered many cities by skirting local rules. In Barcelona, residents complain that already crammed districts are overflowing with Airbnb guests. They accuse Airbnb of pricing locals out of the housing market, as landlords can earn more by renting out their properties for a night or two."
"An even bigger fear is whether the travel industry can regain its pre-crisis vigour. Airbnb talks about forging 'people-to-people connections,' but after enforced social isolation, won’t we wary of renting room and apartment from strangers? Sure, hotels are crowded places that are ripe for transmitting diseases, but travellers may decide that they’re cleaner and offer a lower risk than an Airbnb. Coronavirus will change our perceptions of many things, the sharing economy included."
From Domain News in Australia. "The Tasmanian capital of Hobart has become a beacon of unaffordability for many of its residents. But now the collapse of tourism from the coronavirus pandemic has seen a massive number of homes being transferred from the short-term holiday letting pool to the long-term rental market. That’s a whopping 60 per cent rise in the three weeks to April 5 this year compared to the same period in 2019."
"'Hobart has had an extremely tight rental market which has been tough for tenants,' said Domain senior research analyst Dr Nicola Powell. 'But over the last two weeks of March, it saw a strong lift in available rental listings. Hobart is driven by tourism, both interstate and overseas, and with that ceasing, a lot of short-term rental accommodation has been converted to the long-term rental market instead which should to help to alleviate the really tight rental conditions.'"
The Echo in Australia. "There has been a large increase in the number of properties available for rent in the Byron Shire, as former Airbnb and short-term holiday letting properties start returning to the long-term residential market. Local housing economist Thomas Keily describes the surge as ‘unprecedented.’ He told The Echo, ‘That label is getting bandied about a lot right now, but we’re talking about 500 properties in the Northern Rivers region in the last two weeks. That’s a 50 per cent increase on a year ago. Those numbers are substantial.'"
"This is a trend we’re seeing in a number of popular tourism destinations. ‘Properties available for rent have increased 55 per cent in Cairns and 38 per cent in the Whitsundays,’ Mr Keily said. Mr Keily cites rental data from real estate platform Domain, which shows that across the country, the number of rental properties has increased 20 per cent relative to a year ago, largely on the back of tourism hot-spots."
The Huffington Post on Canada. "Amid all the bad news surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, there might be something of a silver lining for renters and homebuyers in Canada’s priciest cities: When the lockdown ends, they may find themselves in a more affordable housing market. And if it happens, it will be in no small part thanks to the sudden flame-out of Airbnb, whose hosts have seen a collapse in revenue as global tourism ground to a halt in the past few months."
"Airbnb’s situation right now is about as dire as it could be. Even before the pandemic hit, changing attitudes and changing rules meant Airbnb owners were facing a much harsher new reality. One major earthquake for the vacation rental platform came in November, when a new Toronto by-law came into effect, forbidding homeowners from renting out any properties on Airbnb except for their primary residence or rooms in a primary residence."
"The new rule seems to have had an immediate impact. Toronto saw a 29-per-cent spike in the number of furnished, long-term apartment rentals available in the first three months of this year, according to real estate consultancy Urbanation, which sees this as a sign that Airbnb owners are shifting to long-term rentals ― though that was largely before the impact of the pandemic was felt."
"Others believe Airbnb hosts are more likely to sell their units instead. 'They’re not going to hold on to it for the rental market,' said Diana Petramala, a senior researcher at Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development. Short-term rentals bring in far more revenue than long-term rentals, so renting out an apartment on a one-year lease is 'a less attractive investment to hold on to,' she told HuffPost Canada. That’s especially true if you’re one of the many homebuyers using Airbnb income to cover a large mortgage. Rent in the apartment market might not be enough to cover that monthly payment."
"Scott Chatford, CEO of analytics firm AirDNA, says many Airbnb hosts will likely hang in there to see how the summer turns out. 'There is still hope that people are going to be able to salvage their business by end of summer. But if people aren’t able to pay their mortgages in August, then you might see people giving up hope.'"
The Toronto Sun in Canada. "Torontonians love to talk about Toronto real estate. Given that the definition of 'market value' is what a given property will sell for on the open market, we will need the real estate market to open up again before we can get any real sense of our new normal with respect to house prices and property values. After years of historically low vacancy rates on the rental market, largely attributed to investor-owners experiencing bank-robber returns through short-term rentals, the lockdown had an immediate impact."
"Suddenly investors have unrentable units to carry. Almost immediately Craigslist and Kijiji were flooded with new rental apartments. Suddenly investors have unrentable units to carry. Almost immediately Craigslist and Kijiji were flooded with new rental apartments. Even without a crystal ball, we can certainly expect to see an immediate impact on the condo market."
"Those same investor-owners are suddenly entering their second month of lockdown with no clear end in sight. Mortgage relief options are limited for non-principal residences, and the short-term rentals that used to cover costs and then some are now banned outright in the province. Many investors will find they have no alternative but to offload, so it would be entirely reasonable to expect a rise in 'distress sales.'"
"Even pre-construction condominiums will surely take a hit as buyers under contract, now experiencing lost earnings and unemployment, may no longer qualify for financing and could be unable to close on their deals. Is this bad news? For some it’s not great. But is it opening up a wedge of opportunity for buyers and renters who have long needed a break? Absolutely. So, while we have all surely lost patience with false optimism in the midst of this pandemic, everything isn’t completely awful."