You Don’t Want To Be The Tree That Falls In The Forest That No One Hears
A report from the Times of London. "Sean Rakidzich was 'spitting fire.' The 34-year-old from Houston had built a small empire via Airbnb, managing 103 properties in Texas and Pennsylvania. Then the coronavirus walloped his business, as it did everyone else’s in the travel industry. But when Airbnb’s billionaire boss Brian Chesky suddenly announced a blanket refund policy for guests last month, overriding contracts its hosts had struck with travellers, $100,000 (£79,500) of Rakidzich’s bookings were vaporised. Chesky 'screwed us,' he said."
"Rakidzich said many hosts who may have been letting a room or a spare apartment are 'suddenly scrambling to learn how to run a business.' For many, this crisis has exploded the easy money myth that drew millions into the Airbnb web. 'It always seemed so safe to be a host,' said Rakidzich. 'And now people are struggling.'"
"There has been no shortage of schadenfreude, especially among critics who have long argued that Airbnb has stoked the housing crises in cities by taking homes off the market that would otherwise be available as long-term rentals."
The Wall Street Journal. "As the coronavirus spreads and stay-at-home orders cut deeply into the economy, buyout firms are scrambling to triage investments in industries that are particularly vulnerable. During back-to-back calls from their Hamptons beach houses, Lake Tahoe ski cabins and Florida vacation rentals, private-equity managers have worked frantically to group their investments, with some using color-coded buckets. Green companies have escaped largely unscathed. Yellow means 'Keep an eye on this one.' Red equals serious trouble."
From Forbes. "My wife and I listed our house for sale in late February, shortly before Washington state reported its first Covid-19 related deaths. We went under contract in less than 24 hours. Full ask. 30 day close. Everything was going exactly according to plan. Until the Dow cratered and it all fell apart. Our story isn’t unique in the new corona normal."
"Real estate’s clobbering runs wide and deep. Short-term vacation and AirBnB rentals were promptly banned by many local city councils. Year over year short-term rental reservations for 2020 summer travel are now down by 75%. Hosts, many of whom rely on their short-term rentals for critical supplemental income or, in many cases, all of it, now credit Covid-19 for the 'Cancellation Apocalypse.'"
"Billy Rose, Founder and President of luxury brokerage The Agency based in Beverly Hills isn’t advising his sellers to sit on the sidelines. 'If you’re selling, get your property on the market,' he advises. 'Don’t wait until ‘better times’. We don’t know when that will be, and most MLSs are pausing the Days On Market counter at the moment so sellers aren’t prejudiced in this regard. Also, don’t price based off the ‘outlier’ or premium comp. You need to create urgency by pricing ahead of the market. If you are new to the market, then you want your price to be compelling. If you are already on the market, then you don’t want your reduction to be a non-needle mover; you don’t want to be the tree that falls in the forest that no one hears. Sellers also need to be mindful that now is not the time to be trying to drive a hard bargain. Don’t scare buyers off. Be accommodating if you want to sell.'"
From News Channel 5 in Tennessee. "A Wall Street investment firm recently sent an email to Nashville area home builders saying it wants to grow its holdings in middle Tennessee. One of the nation's largest Real Estate Investment Trusts sent the e-mail on March 20, shortly after tornadoes hit the area and as economic concerns over the Coronavirus began to increase. We showed the e-mail to real estate investor Bruce McNeilage, and ask him his thoughts on the timing."
"He said banks are already starting to pull back on loans and that could leave large home builders in trouble.'Will those letters continue to come? Probably. Will they work? Unfortunately, yes. There are going to be guys that get in trouble that have to sell assets,' McNeilage said."
From Westfair Online. "When considering both the commercial and residential real estate markets within the economic chaos brought about the COVID-19 pandemic, two new surveys present a situation that is not lacking in bad news – yet large pockets of optimism continue to remain amid the doom and gloom."
"On the commercial side, real estate brokerage CBRE surveyed its capital markets professionals on March 17 to determine the changes it was witnessing from their clients. The poll found 50% of the company’s capital markets team saw sellers delay bringing assets to market and more than 70% expected more of this disruption into the next 30 days. The survey found the size of bidding pools contracting, with 65% of respondents reporting they were getting smaller and 80% expecting them to shrink further."
"The survey also found 50% of buyers trying to 're-price' deals that are under contract to a reduced figure while two-thirds of buyers asked for 5% price reductions. Spencer Levy, CBRE’s senior economic advisor and chairman of Americas research, addressed the issue of the equity real estate capital markets in a March 18 flash call. 'Most deals … are proceeding,' he observed. 'While institutional buyers from a capital balance sheet standpoint may be stronger, we’re actually seeing a falloff in more institutional buyers than private buyers. And this is largely due to the denominator effect, which is squarely on the table, largely because of the falloff in REIT prices versus private market values.'"
"CBRE also predicted that most industries were hitting a short-term 'pause' button on office space and the energy and travel and leisure industries would feel the greatest impact on a market slowdown. For multifamily developments, stress points could occur in senior housing and Class B and C apartment units for lower-income workers."
"On the residential side, a survey of U.S. agents by Juwai IQI, the Chinese-based real estate sales and media company, found respondents believing the remainder of 2020 will be dismal. In looking ahead to the next three quarters, 85% of U.S. real estate agents expected to earn less than the previous year, with 58% predicting a 'significant' slashing of their earnings and 28% believing the reduction would be 'moderate.'"
From Reuters. "JPMorgan Chase & Co, the country’s largest lender by assets, is raising borrowing standards this week for most new home loans as the bank moves to mitigate lending risk stemming from the novel coronavirus disruption. From Tuesday, customers applying for a new mortgage will need a credit score of at least 700, and will be required to make a down payment equal to 20% of the home’s value. JPMorgan would not disclose the current minimum requirements for its various mortgage products, but the average down payment across the housing market is around 10%, according to the MBA."
"The changes should help JPMorgan reduce its exposure to borrowers who unexpectedly lose their job, suffer a decline in wages, or whose homes lose value. The new credit standards do not apply to JPMorgan’s roughly four million existing mortgage customers, or to low and moderate income borrowers who qualify for its 'DreaMaker' product, which requires a minimum 3% down payment and 620 credit score."