Economic Downturns Are Called Corrections For A Reason
It's Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. "Data from Redfin shows that jumbo loans have taken a big hit during the pandemic as mortgage servicers tighten their lending criteria – some lenders have even stopped issuing them altogether. Jumbo loans fell 37 percent in March. 'COVID-19 has significantly impacted the lending industry in many ways over the past few months and jumbo loans have been one of the first products taken off of the shelves,' Redfin mortgage adviser Katie Bradner said.'"
"'Wells Fargo Home Lending will temporarily stop accepting applications for all new home equity lines of credit after April 30,' said company spokesman Tom Goyda."
"'As of right now, I don’t know of any lender doing cash-out refinancing,' said Realtor Pam Junge. 'They can change quickly because this is a very fluid situation, but today, you’d be really hard-pressed to get any cash out on a refinance.'"
"The number of Seattle-area households behind on their mortgages increased 11.4% month-over-month, nearly three times faster than the 3.3% average national rise, according to Black Knight. 'It feels like we’ve compressed the 2008 financial crisis into the last seven weeks,' said Tom Schwab, the owner of Westwood Mortgage in Northgate. Wells Fargo and US Bank both adjusted their minimum credit score requirements to 680, including for FHA and VA loans, which typically finance borrowers with credit scores as low as 580, including plenty of first-time homebuyers with low down payments. Navy Federal Credit Union stopped offering FHA loans altogether."
"Purchasers of higher-end homes have also seen their options restricted. And home buyers everywhere may be expected to put more down than they would have before the crisis. 'We’re not seeing a decrease in traffic,' Schwab said. 'We’re seeing a decrease in the number of solutions we can offer right now.'"
"No one should be worried about losing their home, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria said on Monday, April 27. That reminds me something Forrest Gump said: 'Stupid is as stupid does.' It is utterly irresponsible for Fan and Fred’s regulator and conservator to provide such a baseless reassurance to homeowners. Somehow, someway, repayment is still required, job or no job. And Fannie and Freddie only accounted for about 43% of all mortgages in 2019."
"National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says prices will hold up just fine in most markets, with price drops likely only at the upper end. Great news! But that is the same Lawrence Yun who said in July 2007, 'Essentially, we see that the existing-home market is stabilizing in a broad cyclical trough and moving in the right direction.'"
"Extell Development Co. is offering price incentives on new contracts signed at One Manhattan Square, a luxury residential tower on the Lower East Side. The remaining inventory will be discounted, some up to 20%, the developer says. The company reports that sales velocity at the tower has been strong. 'However given today’s uncertainty, we felt that there was an opportunity to re-engage the market with price discounts on new deals,' Chairman Gary Barnett, says. For-sale residential product across the boroughs have felt compelled to lower prices since Covid-19 entered the scene."
"Beach closures could potentially outlast the short-term rental restrictions, resulting in more rental cancellations. This year, the lack of clarity surrounding rentals has resulted in a lack of cash flow. 'All the owners that rely on this money to pay their mortgage payments—all their money stopped,' says Eric Birchler, the broker owner of Birchler Realtors, with offices in Lavallette, Ortley Beach and Seaside Park."
"The GTA's condo rental market has dramatically reversed directions in the course of a single month with a surge in listings since the pandemic hit, real estate watchers say. And they believe a big drop in Airbnb rentals may be playing a role in this trend. 'We're seeing renters pull out of the market,' said John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty Inc. And he says while prospective renters are getting scarce, there has been a spike in the numbers of units for rent. 'So those people are kind of pulling back given the economic uncertainty and the impact on their incomes. And on the flip side, we're seeing landlords — who need to pay the mortgages and property taxes — scramble to put their units on the market.'"
"Jaco Joubert has studied the effects of Airbnb on condo rental vacancies. He says he's noticed rents have declined by a few hundred dollars. 'People are getting more desperate to get somebody[to rent their units],' said Joubert, adding that price expectations are likely moving lower."
"Housing experts are seeing early signs of a glut of vacant homes due to Airbnbs becoming standard rentals, home sellers choosing to lease rather than sell and international students staying abroad. 'It's very likely to keep falling from here,' managing director Louis Christopher said, adding there were 15,000 more rental listings compared to the same time in 2019. 'Last year we had net migration of 240,000. This year could be close to zero but, no matter what, 170,000 dwellings are being completed this year.'"
"Economic downturns are also called 'corrections' for a reason — they enable peak-level prices to come back down to a reasonable level. The crisis may cause land prices to come down somewhat, said Astor Cos. CEO Henry Torres, who has pioneered certain neighborhoods with projects like Valencia in South Miami. He has a project that will break ground in August. 'A project that normally takes 18 months could take 24,' he said. 'I don't think we're going be building anything less expensive.'"