For Properties That Were Purchased Two Months Ago, What Are They Worth Today?
A report from Toronto Storeys in Canada. "According to Toronto real estate agent Doug Vukasovic, when looking at both the condo and freehold markets on a weekly basis, Vukasovic says that in four out of the last five weeks, prices have come down. Vukasovic says prices in the freehold segment dropped by -7% last week, reaching an average of $1.18 million, which was driven 'exclusively' by detached homes, the segment that saw the biggest price change as it dropped -13% during this time. Similarly, the condo market also experienced price declines, with both condo apartments and townhomes down -5%, reaching an average of $633,000. To be more specific, condo apartments were down -8%, while townhomes were down -3%."
"In regards to transactions, Vukasovic says sales were down -74% in the freehold segment, with just 98 sales as of May 3 compared to 391 in the same time last year. Sales were also down in the condo segment, with just 109 transactions as of May 3, down -76% from the same time in 2019, when there were 457 transactions."
From Reuters on Canada. "Some Canadian banks have frozen new lending for smaller commercial property purchases, in some cases withdrawing letters of intent, as the coronavirus crisis raises concerns about owners’ ability to make payments, mortgage and real estate brokers said. The tighter lending environment will likely result in a rise in distressed sales of commercial properties in coming months as buyers vanish, industry players said."
"With most businesses shut due to public health measures aimed at curbing the pandemic, major banks are also declining to refinance property for owners who are trying to move from more expensive alternative lenders as their rental income dries up."
"'If you’re a landlord, and looking to refinance, you can’t get that,' said Roelof van Dijk, director of market analytics at CoStar Group. 'So you’re probably going to have to sell. But they're also limiting new owners who might want to buy that space.'"
"Concerns about valuations of properties are also giving lenders pause, as appraisals typically use sales from 45 to 60 days ago, said Anthony Contento, chief executive of Sherwood Mortgage Brokers. 'For properties that were purchased two months ago … what are they worth today during this crisis?' he said."
The Galway Advertiser in Ireland. "'The most recent Daft report has indicated that in Dublin and nationwide there has been a substantial increase in the number of residential properties available for rent, figures as high as 22 per cent have been referenced for one and two bed apartments,' said Deirdre Greaney, letting manager with Winters Property Management, who has 15 years' experience in the property market. 'This increase of stock is being put down to properties which were let on a short term basis now coming in to the long term market.'"
The Property Investor Today. "The coronavirus pandemic has caused a considerable amount of uncertainty and worry since it took hold in Europe in early March, with Spain and the UK two of the worst-affected countries. There has been some concern over what happens to buyers of Spanish off-plan properties if they can’t meet the entire payments due to the impacts of the coronavirus crisis. How can buyers in this situation recover the amounts they have already invested?"
"'The crisis caused by the coronavirus will radically change the financial situation of many of the buyers who have bought a home off-plan in recent months, since they will not be able to afford the rest of the price,' says José Ramón Gutiérrez Giménez – a Spanish lawyer who specialises in recovering deposits of British buyers in Spanish off-plan properties. 'In the event of non-payment, the developer has the option to terminate the purchase and sale contract due to the buyer's default, then remaining with the amounts that have been agreed in each contract and returning the property to the market. Or they may compel the buyer to pay the rest of the price.'"
"Many buyers are wondering at the moment how to avoid this, Gutiérrez Giménez adds. 'If it is possible to allege that their financial situation has changed radically due to a case of force majeure such as the crisis caused by the coronavirus, it may be possible to resolve the signed sale contract and ask that the seller return the money already paid.'"
"But what can buyers who are in this situation do to be able to recover the investment they have made? 'Only in the event that there is a delay in delivery by the promoter do buyers have an opportunity to recover these amounts,' Gutiérrez Giménez advises."
The Australian Financial Review. "Funding for off-the-plan mortgages has been axed by Teachers Mutual Bank, as the number of apartments settling with a valuation lower than the original price tops 55 per cent in Sydney and nearly half in Melbourne. The mutual, one of the nation's largest with 200,000 members and assets of more than $7 billion, blames the decision on the 'high uncertainty of future valuations' caused by falling demand and lower prices."
"Off-the-plan purchases allow buyers to secure a property and pay a deposit for a unit, duplex, or townhouse before construction. They are popular during periods of rising prices because the buyer may get a significant discount below the market value if the property appreciates before settlement. But the impact of COVID-19 on property markets increases fears buyers might forgo their deposit and drop the loan because of concerns their property will be worth less at settlement than the purchase price."
"Alternatively, contract holders who purchased an apartment several years ago and approaching settlement, may find their employment and income circumstances have changed, or their lenders are less willing to finance the purchase. 'Buyers confronted with a low valuation at the time of settlement are likely to be less willing to settle, and may need to top up their deposit in order to meet their lender's loan to valuation ratio requirements,' said Tim Lawless, head of research at CoreLogic."
"There is a 'high likelihood' that demand for investment-grade inner city high-rise apartments will be lower because of a drop in overseas migration and less demand from local and overseas students, Mr Lawless said. Rental demand is also expected to be hit by rising unemployment and lower incomes, particularly among sectors hard hit by the pandemic, such as accommodation and food services."
"'Weaker rental conditions could also be affected by higher supply, as rental properties that were previously on short-term leases transition into the permanent rental market,' he said. The pipeline of new units is falling but remains elevated across many major markets."
From Mansion Global. "The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking economic havoc around the world—and the luxury real estate market is no exception. A report from Knight Frank analyzed prime prices in 20 cities across the globe based on projections for demand and supply, the impact of coronavirus in each different market and the varying government stimulus measures announced, but it noted that unprecedented uncertainty made the forecasts challenging."
"'There were positive signs in several markets globally that prime prices would rise throughout 2020, but unsurprisingly, Covid-19 has put a halt to that,' Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank, said in the report. 'Of the 20 cities Knight Frank has analyzed, 16 of these will see prime price declines in 2020, with only a handful avoiding a fall into negative territory.'"
"The cities predicted to be hit by the largest price falls, defined as a drop of 5% or more, are Buenos Aires, Mumbai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Vancouver. With the exception of Singapore, the markets are either emerging or locales that were already seeing weak price growth at the end of 2019, according to Knight Frank."
"'In London’s case, the political certainty provided by last December’s general election boosted housing market confidence during January and February. With prices in some areas down as much as 25% over the last five years, we expect a sharp uptick in 2021,' Kate Everett-Allen, head of international residential research at Knight Frank, said in the report."