It’s A Metric That Apparently People Really, Really Want To See
A report from KQED in California. "The Jasper is a high-rise, luxury apartment building in San Francisco's Rincon Hill neighborhood near The Embarcadero. A one-bedroom apartment here costs more than $4,000 a month — at least, for now. Like many other high-end apartment complexes in San Francisco, the Jasper's management is offering up to one month of free rent to prospective tenants right now because of the weakening market."
"'If you go on Craigslist, you'll see at least four weeks — often six weeks — free rent,' said Bay Area property manager and landlord Carlos Carbajal. 'I've never seen anybody giving that much free rent as an incentive the whole time I've lived here, since 2003.'"
From Socket Site in California. "Having jumped to a 9-year seasonal high last week, the number of homes on the market in San Francisco has since ticked up another 5 percent to 870, representing 45 percent more inventory than at the same time last year. At a more granular level, the number of single-family homes listed for sale in the city (270) is now running 40 percent higher than at the same time last year while the number of condos (600) is currently 49 percent higher."
From Slate on New York. "According to Compass, the brokerage where Brian K. Lewis works, the market in New York City hit bottom around April 12. 5 East 17th Street, $14,950,000, Four bedrooms, four bathrooms. Q: There was a major price reduction. Are you generally seeing a lot of price reductions because of COVID?"
"A: I can tell you the story on that one. We had a buyer. It was in contract. The asking price was $17 million, and before COVID the buyer failed to close. Let’s not forget, when the story’s told, that in New York City we have been slowly coming down in prices since at least 2016. I don’t want anybody to rewrite history and say it was all great and then COVID. In 2017, you were getting $17 million for that loft, and pre-COVID you were not getting that unfortunately, even though I think it’s worth $20 million. But the sellers adjusted the price after this buyer failed to close."
The Real Deal on Florida. "Brown Harris Stevens Miami broker Mark Zilbert teased a new feature on his website called 'The 100 Biggest Price Drops' late last week. Over the past two weeks, some sellers in Miami-Dade cut prices by nearly 50 percent, suggesting more price adjustments are on the horizon as showings begin to resume and brokers get back to the office. The report looked at all homes and condos priced at $500,000 and up that have dropped prices since May 11."
"'It created a massive surge in traffic,' Zilbert said. 'It’s a metric that apparently people really, really want to see.'"
"Between May 11 and Tuesday, May 26, the property with the biggest price haircut is the four-bedroom, three-bathroom house at 410 Southwest 27th Road in Miami. The 2,286-square-foot home is now asking $1.06 million, down 47 percent from $1.99 million earlier this year. It’s been on the market for 136 days. Similar homes in the neighborhood are priced closer to today’s asking price."
"'Many, if not most, of these properties are decent deals, but the massive price drop is more a reflection of adjusting an unrealistic listing price down to one that is closer to market value,' he said."
From Bisnow on Massachusetts. "Multifamily rental inventory has tripled in some places in Boston, a sign that many renters have left their homes over the first two months of the coronavirus pandemic. Across greater Boston, apartment inventory is up 58% from 2019, according to Multiple Listing Service Property Information Network data pulled by real estate agent David Bates. Back Bay’s inventory nearly tripled, rising from 102 available units to 290, while the South End and Beacon Hill’s inventories more than doubled."
"It may get worse before it gets better. Landlords are doing what they can to retain existing tenants, including keeping rents the same or even lowering them, but some of the units that are available may not even be listed yet. 'Several landlords have told us they are holding off giving out their inventory because they believe pricing may be better in late May or June,' Boston Pads CEO Demetrios Salpoglou wrote. 'Some landlords are even avoiding contacting their tenants about renewals until mid-May to see what transpires in the market.'"
"Bates wrote that a 'sizable Boston landlord texted me that he was experiencing ‘lots of lease breaks,’ and that may be one reason that apartment listings between April 20 and May 20 are up from 1,417 to 1,859, a 31% increase. Further muddying the multifamily waters in the Boston area is the future of its typically reliable renter base of college students."
From Multi-Housing News. "Continued volatility in the student housing market is expected due to uncertainty over higher education plans for the upcoming fall semester and may impact more than $13.3 billion in student housing loans packaged in commercial mortgage-backed securities, according to DBRS Morningstar. 'The Next Falling Domino: Student Housing' report notes some student housing properties were facing headwinds before the pandemic, including oversupply issues, decreasing international student enrollments and expanding on-campus residency requirements."
"The delinquency rate for student housing loans increased from 0.2 percent in January 2018 to 3.8 percent in April 2020. The rate increased to 9.5 percent in May. The report also notes there are about $1.14 billion student housing loans that will mature between 2020 and 2021, including about $948 million of which are CMBS loans. 'Replacement financing during the ongoing pandemic for upcoming maturing loans could pose challenges, as these properties face stressed cash flows and possible value decline,' according to DBRS Morningstar."
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette in Pennsylvania. "What had been a lucrative side business for most is now a patchwork of bookings for the fortunate. Most of those bookings bear the marks of the coronavirus pandemic. 'When everything started to fall apart, I lost all my bookings in a week,' said Jan Loney, who lives in Mt. Lebanon. She books guests into two units she owns in Lawrenceville. 'I had more than $8,000 in bookings through May and a two-month booking further out.'"
"For now, the second-floor apartment in Kristen Frambes’ Victorian home in Ben Avon is empty. With a separate entrance, it had been a nice sideline income for her and her husband, about $20,000 a year. Then they lost all their bookings from March through June. 'For now, we’re going to leave it listed. If we don’t get any bookings, we may turn it into a [traditional] rental,' she said."
"Some Airbnb operators don’t have that luxury. Dennis Vodzak took a double hit with the COVID-19 shutdown. A corporate chef for years, he was making a living as a caterer when he began building a vigorous Airbnb business three years ago. 'I thought I was going to have a banner year in 2020,' he said. 'I made more than $50,000 on my bookings last year.'"
"He rents three units in the historic Day House, a massive Victorian in the Central Northside. He lives in the house, where the units all have separate entrances. He was preparing to open a fourth unit in the building in June. In each of the past three years, he said, he had more than 600 bookings. 'My last people left on March 14,' he said."
"Some hosts still have guests in a holding pattern. One family is holing up in a house on the South Side that Michelle Margittai and her husband operate. Their other unit, a loft above Peter Margittai’s architecture studio, is currently empty. 'It had been very successful, although we cleaned toilets a lot,' Ms. Margittai said. The future of both units might be as traditional, longer-term rentals, she said."
The Houston Chronicle in Texas. "Landry's CEO and Houston Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta warned of a collapse in the commercial real estate industry as countless businesses are unable to pay rent as they remain closed or are operating at partial capacity. 'We can't pay rent if we're not doing business,' the Houston billionaire said Tuesday, citing a potential 'commercial real estate bust' on CNBC's Power Lunch."
The Tahoe Daily Tribune. "There are numerous reasons we believe that commercial real estate is not a good place for most investors at this time. The enormous reduction in employment is leading almost every business to reevaluate their staffing requirements. It is also causing businesses to reconsider just how much office space they really need. So, what does this mean for commercial real estate especially large office buildings, office parks and skyscrapers?"
"Generally commercial real estate is constructed using very sophisticated financial projections for income and expenses. The rapid rise in real estate prices and rents during the past eight years is now being impacted by business closings which lead to vacant storefronts and shortfalls in rental income. Buildings under construction might have difficulty finding commercial tenants to lease the available space."
"Ultimately there will be an enormous glut of vacant commercial real estate. When this oversupply of office space is combined with a big decrease in demand the results for the commercial real estate market could be catastrophic."