The Buyers Want 50 Cents On The Dollar, And Sellers Are Still Remembering Prices From Nine Weeks Ago
A report from the Wall Street Journal. "In April and May, 354 apartment and office properties started missing payments on $7.1 billion in mortgages, according to Trepp LLC, which only includes loans packaged into mortgage bonds. That is up from around $4.2 billion in February and March. That increase is 'just the start,' said Michael Fay, head of the asset-resolution team at brokerage firm Avison Young. He said he expects more tenants to miss rent payments in June and July, leading to a rise in mortgage defaults throughout the year and into 2021. Smaller landlords, who often have fewer capital reserves, are in particular danger, he said."
"For now, there are few sales of distressed assets, in part because the pace of the market downturn has left many in the industry stunned. 'The buyers want to buy at 50 cents on the dollar, and the sellers are still remembering the prices from nine weeks ago,' said Mark Edelstein, chair of law firm Morrison & Foerster’s global real-estate group. The lack of deals has made it hard to determine how far property prices have already fallen."
"Some rental-apartment owners were already struggling before the pandemic in cities like New York, where lawmakers tightened rent restrictions. The current crisis is acting as an 'accelerant,' Mr. Edelstein said. 'It’s going to take years to dig out of what’s happening now.'"
From Senior Housing News. "The pandemic put a halt to the longest sustained period of economic growth in the country’s history and has global economies facing the largest economic downturn since the Great Depression. With that comes the possibility for a larger number of distressed commercial real estate assets, as the last downturn showed. Real Capital Analytics tracked over $462 billion during the Great Recession — equivalent to 12.5% of outstanding commercial mortgages at the time — and determined that valuations plummeted 35%, erasing the equity in many deals. Lenders also saw significant losses and were able to recoup only 67% of defaulted mortgage value."
"'The hotel, retail and senior housing sectors will clearly have more trouble resulting from Covid-19,' Real Capital Analytics President Bob White wrote."
From Bisnow. "Trust Hospitality CEO Richard Millard said the coronavirus has eliminated his company's revenue. Trust operates 31 boutique hotels, and as an operator, he said 2021 might be the next time his company takes in revenue. 'I don’t see most of us that operate hotels, certainly as a pure operator, are receiving any income for the remainder of the year of any kind,' he said. 'I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I think that's what it is.'"
"His team closed all but two of its hotels — one near a hospital in New York and one near the airport in Miami. It laid off essentially all of its hotel and corporate staff, he said. It had five other hotels on the verge of opening, including one next to Orlando's convention center, he said. 'I think we got maybe another 30 days of survival,' Millard said. 'Then I'm not sure what happens.'"
"Driftwood CEO Carlos Rodriguez Sr. said his company's operations side had to lay off more than 3,000 workers in response to the coronavirus pandemic. But for its investment arm, he said he expects 'there will be an avalanche of transactions' in the hospitality space six to 12 months from now. Rodriguez said based on what he's seeing in the market, buyers right now are expecting a 30% to 40% discount on assets, but sellers only want to give about 20% off."
"Millard was less willing to make predictions because of so many unknowns related to the cornavirus. Although a lot of capital is sitting on the sidelines, many would-be buyers already own a lot of real estate, which could run into trouble if the virus persists, Millard said. 'So I'm not sure what really happens is going to be an avalanche, but it all depends on what happens to the world,' he said."
From CBS DFW in Texas. "While the statewide moratorium on evictions started in March, landlords were still able to submit filings for eviction cases. More than 1,100 new eviction petitions have been filed in North Texas since Mar. 16, according to public information requests filed with justice of the peace courts in Denton, Tarrant, Collin and Dallas County. But many cities have not created extra protections for renters. Landlords argue they, too, are struggling to pay the bills during the pandemic."
"'I think it will probably be a day of reckoning for landlords and tenants,' said Christopher Fluegge, director of operations for the National Landlord Association. Fluegge is also a landlord who is based south of the Metroplex. More than 20% of tenants have fallen behind on rental payments since COVID-19 first hit, according to Fluegge. 'Landlords are typically put out there as a bad guy in scenarios like this when, in fact, most are running small businesses trying to make ends meet,' Fluegge said. 'They’re not getting a lot of adjustments from financial institutions…. the banks are calling them for payments.'"
From Curbed New York. "As rental activity has, unsurprisingly, slowed in the midst of the novel coronavirus pandemic, market uncertainty is beginning to chip away at rents across the city. And that, along with rental concessions—perks paid for by the landlord—could translate to deals for renters looking to move in the coming months. On listing website Localize.city, for instance, rents have fallen for 70 percent of apartments listed prior to the statewide stay-at-home order, which went into effect on March 20."
"Those prices have reduced on apartments in all five boroughs with an overall drop in rents between three to five percent. Those may not be mind-blowing reductions, but they’re a signal that rents are trending downward, and likely to continue doing so in the midst of the city’s public health crisis, says Steven Kalifowitz, president of Localize.city."
"'Based on what we’re seeing, and anecdotally what I’m hearing, we should expect more rental price cuts in the future,' says Kalifowitz. 'I expect we will see people either moving to get a better deal on a bigger / better place, or others downsizing to accommodate lower salary expectations.'"
"Noah Rosenblatt, CEO of UrbanDigs, a Manhattan real estate data firm, notes that 'there’s a lot more concessions to be had versus pre-COVID. If you can get two months free at $3,500 a month, your net effective rent goes way down,' says Rosenblatt. 'It’s just another way of getting that rental rate reduced in an environment where landlords typically are not so quick to start rushing to reduce those rents.'"
The San Francisco Chronicle in California. "Sales of existing, single-family homes in April — the first month to show the full force of the coronavirus — dropped a stunning 30.1% statewide and 37.4% in the Bay Area compared to the same period last year, but median prices were more or less unchanged, according to a survey released Monday by the California Association of Realtors."
"'It’s not a fire sale,' said Leslie Appleton-Young, the association’s chief economist. 'Typically, prices are sticky on any movement down when sellers don’t have to sell. When you get into a foreclosure situation, you have a bigger problem.'"
"'I would call (the decline in sales) dramatic, sudden, breathtaking,' Appleton-Young said. 'What it shows is an inability to transact for buyers and sellers and unwillingness to move forward with transactions.'"
"The average rate on government-backed loans is down about a third of a percentage point in the past two months to 3.28%. These loans go up to $765,700 in most Bay Area counties. They’re easier to get than bigger loans, called jumbos, which lack government backing and are harder to sell to investors. With so much uncertainty, lenders are less willing and in some cases less able to hold jumbos on their books."
"To get a jumbo loan, you need at least 20% down and a credit score over 700, said Jay Voorhees, owner JVM Lending in Walnut Creek. Before the coronavirus, 'we could do 10% down and a 680 FICO' credit score. Jumbo rates on average are about 1.5% higher than they were a few weeks ago, he added."
From Q 98.5 in Illinois. "If you've ever wanted to live in a mansion but don't have a million dollars this could be your chance. Sure, you're still going to need to get a loan for about $600,000 but it is a mansion. Unfortunately, as indicated in the headline, this mansion has experienced a hefty price drop. In fact, according to ChicagoMag, more than a $2mil price drop."
"'It was foreclosed on last year, and last week, a real estate investment trust listed it for $589,000. That’s $2.2 million off its asking price of $2.79 million five years ago — an 80 percent discount.'"