The Reason Banks Can’t Lend Is Because There Isn’t Equity To Lend On, It’s A Chicken And Egg Scenario
A report from Reuters. "U.S. homebuilding dropped by the most on record in April and permits for future construction tumbled. The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday added to dismal data this month showing a staggering loss of 20.5 million jobs. Housing starts tumbled 30.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 891,000 units last month, the lowest level since early 2015. The percentage decline was the biggest since the government started tracking the series in 1959."
"'Fewer people are going to be interested in buying a home and committing themselves to years of mortgage payments when they are concerned about their job and income prospects,' said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina."
The Orange County Register in California. "Home sales plummeted in Southern California in April, the first full month caught in the grip of the coronavirus lockdown, new housing figures released Tuesday show. Tighter lending standards also made it much harder for homebuyers to get financing last month. Non-traditional loans vanished, minimum FICO scores were raised and jumbo loans used to buy higher-cost homes grew scarce. 'Buyers were less able to secure loans during this time,' said Taylor Marr, lead economist for Redfin. 'LA, in particular, has a higher-than-average share of homes that (require) jumbo loans.'"
"Additionally, buyers fearful of future price drops paused their search process or withdrew their offers. About 40% of buyers withdrew offers in April, said CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp."
From Realtor.com. "The vacation home rental market, dominated by such players as Airbnb, VRBO, and HomeAway, has taken a huge hit. Many homeowners who had relied on rental income have been forced to either try to sell their homes or completely revamp their business model to stay afloat. 'One of the things we’re seeing is a remarkable collapse of the short-term rental market, particularly in cities. The viability of running dedicated Airbnb operations is not looking good right now,' says professor David Wachsmuth, who studies home-sharing platforms at McGill University’s School of Urban Planning."
"A pair of nightlife hot spots saw the biggest increases in furnished short-term rentals in the United States: Nashville, TN, with a whopping 185% leap, and Austin, TX, with 160%. The number of furnished rentals being offered for longer stays in New Orleans shot up 48%—sixth highest in the U.S.—though, it probably would've been far higher had local governments not banned nearly all short-term rentals six months ago."
"'It’s causing [rental] prices to fall in areas that had a lot of short-term rentals,' says Brett Richman, broker and owner of Nola Homes Co. 'Landlords are heading for dark times. They’re used to getting, like, $5,000 a month and now are looking for tenants for $1,200 per month.'"
From NBC 2 in Florida. "For more than a month, vacation rental homes on Fort Myers Beach have been empty. 'It has devastated us and the fact that we’re not currently open right now, every day it’s really sucking the life out of our companies,' said Peter Albert with Coastal Vacation Properties."
From KOAA in Colorado. "It's usually the start of the busiest time of year for Airbnb hosts and short term rental owners, but with COVID-19 still an issue some owners are getting creative in order to stay afloat. Airbnb Host Elliott Orsillo said, 'I think I was adequately scared in February.' That's how Orsillo felt when news of the coronavirus first started to spread. 'We kind of saw the writing on the wall.' He shared that a big wave of cancellations came through. 'We're running at probably…two-thirds both on a booking rate and on an occupancy rate.'"
"Ryan Spradlin, a short term rental owner, said he's experienced 'somewhere in the range of $10,000 to $15,000 worth of cancellations.' Orsillo said, 'We've also flipped a lot of the units to more of a longer-term rental so whether it's finding someone that's looking for three, six, or twelve months fully furnished…that's helped kind of create some stability there.'"
"If you're a host struggling right now Spradlin suggests checking out the Colorado Springs Short-Term Rental Alliance group on Facebook for advice and support."
The Wall Street Journal. "Many investors have long wagered that the student-housing sector was a safe bet even during tough economic periods. The pandemic is threatening that notion. An online fall semester could prove disastrous for them, and in some places it’s already shaping up that way. 'Everybody’s got heartburn,' said Shawn Lubic, director of student housing capital markets at Cushman & Wakefield, which advises investors and markets properties in the sector. 'We’re at the mercy of the schools.'"
"Student Housing Solutions, which serves students near three Florida campuses including Florida State University, said it has leased for the fall about 60% of its properties. That’s about 15 percentage points behind preleasing levels at this time last year. 'Operators believe student housing is recession proof,' said Jennifer Pearce, chief executive of Student Housing Solutions. 'But we’re not pandemic proof.'"
"Analysts say the pandemic has undermined the notion that student housing is always a safe bet, and some warn that even campuses planning to open could soon change their minds. 'It just takes one outbreak to shut it all down again,' said John Pawlowski, a senior analyst at real-estate research firm Green Street Advisors."
"Green Street last week downgraded industry giant American Campus Communities Inc. to sell from hold, citing concerns that occupancy could take a near-term hit. American Campus shares are down 20% since March 13."
From Capital News Service. "The Great Recession that fueled a mortgage and housing crisis more than a decade ago has faded from memory for most Americans. But not for millions of homeowners–mainly in rural and minority communities–who continue to struggle with depressed home values and underwater mortgages. And now, worries of a new recession brought on by the coronavirus crisis could compound their troubles."
"'COVID is going to introduce a period of lower demand for housing,' said Jason Richardson, the director of research and evaluation for the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. 'This is important, since it is this demand for housing that supports home values,' he said, adding that within a few months he expects areas where home values have been depressed for years to see values fall even further."
"An analysis of CoreLogic data by Capital News Service found 10 clusters across the United States with high levels of underwater mortgages, including parts of Maryland, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois and Iowa. According to a separate analysis by CoreLogic published in March, Maryland–one of the nation’s wealthiest states–ranks seventh in the nation for the percentage of underwater residential properties."
"The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic has put a financial strain on families everywhere, but families without equity in their homes are more likely to end up in foreclosure, according to CoreLogic’s chief economist Frank Nothaft. 'If you’re in negative equity, (you) may be better off allowing the foreclosure,' he said."
"Negative equity is a big problem for families because it erodes their net worth and weakens their sense of financial security. Many homeowners depend on rising home equity to start or grow businesses, pay college tuition, retrain for better jobs and fund their retirement."
"Richardson contends that bank lending practices are part of the problem. 'If no one is getting loans, you will see home values remain low,' he said. 'The reason that (banks) can’t lend to these communities is because there isn’t equity to lend on. It’s a chicken and egg scenario.'"
"In Wicomico County, Maryland’s top agricultural county, the percentage of underwater mortgages was 9.14 percent at the end of last year, the highest of any county. Within Wicomico, four ZIP codes had underwater mortgage rates higher than 10 percent. In Prince George’s County, which borders Washington D.C., and has a predominately African-American population, three ZIP codes reported negative equity rates greater than 10 percent at the end of last year."
"Yolanda Muckle, president of the Prince George’s County Real Estate Association, said while the situation in the county has improved dramatically in recent years, the problems that linger can be attributed to previously inflated home values and 'people getting loans during the housing crisis that weren’t good and now they can’t pay off these loans.'"
"Jeff Tucker, an economist at Zillow Group Inc., said another reason why black and Hispanic borrowers have a higher level of negative equity is because they are more likely to have low-down-payment mortgages. 'That lower share of equity in their homes makes homeowners of color much more likely to experience negative equity in the event of a modest decline in home prices,' he said."
"If the economy contracts and home prices decline, as Zillow is currently forecasting, Tucker said these issues could be exacerbated and more borrowers will fall underwater. He added that borrowers who opt for mortgage forbearance via the CARES act could also find themselves in trouble. 'If many of those borrowers defer payments for several months, they could also find themselves underwater when accounting for the deferred payments,' Tucker said."
"CoreLogic economist Nothaft expects that the pandemic will cause significantly slower home price gains nationwide, but especially in Connecticut and New Jersey, two COVID-19 hotspots that already have large numbers of underwater mortgages. The CoreLogic research team has forecast 2020 foreclosure rates based on the recent high level of unemployment insurance claims. In a scenario where 20 percent of Americans are unemployed, Nothaft estimates that 5.5 million homeowners will be 90 days delinquent, in foreclosure proceedings, or 90 days into a forbearance proceeding with their lender. 'Even for an economist, the numbers are just mind boggling,' he said.