They’re Not Going To Be Nice, And They’re Not Going To Pay You What You Think It’s Worth
A report from Business Den in Colorado. "When it comes to future development — things that have yet to break ground — it’s feeling like the end of a cycle.'Projects that are getting built will obviously get finished, but when I can go out and buy a distressed asset at half the price I can build it new, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out what’s going to happen there … I think new development is on hold for, pick a time frame — a year, two years, three years,' said Rhys Duggan, president and CEO of Denver-based Revesco Properties."
From Quartz. "There are already wider impacts due to late and missing rent and mortgage payments. Due to the complex web of financing Americans use to fund its housing market, missed rental payments are rippling across the economy, where they’re felt by banks, federal lending agencies, and investors in the $9 trillion market for mortgage-backed securities."
"There are also concerns about the viability and payments from multifamily and commercial loans. The values for existing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have plummeted, and unlike the residential mortgage industry there is no relief for investors due to a lack of government involvement, said Ryan Swehla, principal of the real estate brokerage and property investment company Graceada Partners, based in Modesto, California.. 'The CMBS market has completely frozen up,' he said."
From Wink News in Florida. "Apartments across Southwest Florida are trying to help new renters make ends meet even before they move in. They are offering incentives, which is something real estate agents say is a sign of the times. 'When you look at the pipeline of apartment complexes, everyone was building them,' said Denny Grimes with Keller Williams Realty. 'There becomes a glut, so that becomes a renter’s dream. You can strike your own deal.'"
The Real Deal on Florida. "Miami condo market consultant and investor Peter Zalewski offered a dose of reality to viewers of The Real Deal’s webinar series. 'Many of you have been talking up the market. The day of reckoning is coming,' he said. 'You’ve got a bunch of people looking to take down stuff, and they’re not going to be nice, and they’re not going to pay you what you think it’s worth.'"
"Zalewski, a principal at Condo Vultures, founder of CraneSpotters and former TRD columnist, predicts condo pricing will fall and undeveloped land will be worth virtually nothing. During the last recession, developers sold their sites for 10 cents to 20 cents on the dollar. He joked that there are only so many Wynwood Yards or Wharfs (referring to The Wharf Miami) where property owners can bring in food trucks to generate income."
"It all comes down to price, he said. 'At the end of the day, what people realize is the condo is a commodity. People buy based on a price per foot,' he said. 'Once you get past the hoopla, the beautiful people, the free booze, and all this excitement about what’s going to happen, it’s effectively a commodity.'"
From National Mortgage News. "Mounting economic fallout from the pandemic is fueling apartment landlords' concerns that more tenants will struggle to make their rent payments, even after most managed to come up with the money for April. 'May 1 will be a bigger watershed,' said John Pawlowski, a senior analyst at real estate research firm Green Street Advisors. 'Think about when the job losses started accelerating.'"
"The cascading damage could spell trouble for an industry that includes everything from mom-and-pop owners with a few properties to large companies with national portfolios. Whether or not the money comes in, mortgages, utilities and property taxes still have to be paid. Whether tenants have gotten stimulus checks from the federal government or state unemployment benefits won't be enough in high-cost areas, like New York and California, according to Doug Bibby, NMHC’s president."
"'We're nervous,' said Bibby. 'The only mitigating factors are the direct payments to households, individuals and children, and the unemployment checks that are coming in — and those are coming in sporadically.'"
The Nashville Post in Tennessee. "A multi-building workforce housing project planned for a Tennessee State University-area site has been canceled, as the would-be developer has changed gears due to COVID-19 concerns. Minneapolis-area-based Dominium had been eyeing a late-summer to early-fall start on the 11.7-acre site. However, the company missed a mid-March deadline to close on the purchase of the property from local developer Shawn Bailes, according to a source with information about the deal and who asked to go unnamed. Dominium seemingly will not renew its efforts to acquire the site."
"'With uncertainties regarding the national market and COVID-19, Dominium decided not to pursue the rezoning or the purchase of the property in March,' said Jerry Maynard, a Dominium spokesman. 'The missing of the ‘deadline’ to close on the property acquisition was no fault of the company. It was circumstantial.'"
From Senior Housing News. "A new survey from health care real estate advisory firm HealthTrust collected responses from almost 50 C-suite level lenders, operators and owners in the senior housing space. The survey’s respondents said they thought lending activity could resume in an average of about three months, acquisition activity could resume in three to five months and development activity could resume in three to eight months. And 90% of those surveyed thought the capitalization rates for seniors housing would rise by as much as 50 basis points in the next 12 to 36 months."
"But only some of the deals that have gone through so far were reduced in price, as just 20% of those surveyed indicated a reduction in pricing or proceeds. Many of those cases reflected escrowed or held-back funds contingent on changes in occupancy, price reductions based on changes in occupancy or loan term changes due to increased credit risk, according to the survey."
"The survey’s respondents also noted that some transactions are falling apart as the Covid-19 pandemic drags on, with 69% reporting at least one deal — defined as a sale or financing — that had been pulled or canceled. The low number of deals with pre-Covid-19 sale prices came as a surprise to HealthTrust COO Colleen Blumenthal."
"'I think the relatively few number of deals that closed without renegotiating price was a surprise,' Blumenthal told Senior Housing News. “However, I suspect if we asked again in a month, that would be a different story.'"
"Senior housing professionals and investors are seeking acquisition opportunities over the next 12 months as the industry grapples with the Covid-19 pandemic. But, investors will shift their focus to value-add and distressed acquisitions, according to new survey results from senior housing investment brokerage firm Heavenrich & Company."
From Thinknum. "Despite the fact that it generates an estimated $39 billion, the self-storage industry is rarely discussed. But there are an estimated 60,000 storage facilities in the United States. Collectively, they take up 1.7 billion square feet at an average cost of $87.88 per square foot."
"The largest of the self-storage companies is Public Storage, which in 2019 generated $2.68 billion in revenue. New data shows that the company — and industry — could be headed for trouble: unused storage space is growing and prices are declining. This is an early sign that the self-storage industry will have a tough time weathering an economic downturn if it continues through the summer when people do a lot of moving and, as a result, storing. In areas like Houston, Texas, where self storage is a historically thriving business, prices are down an average of 45%. In Minnesota, prices have dropped by more than 50% for some storage spaces."
"The price drop appears to be a reflection of swelling inventory. At this time last year, Public Storage listed 20,600 available units. As of this week, that number has more than doubled to 47,100. During the same time period, the average price dropped from $126.80 to the aforementioned $96.31."
"The price drop is evident in all US states, some more than others. But even in New York, a typically healthy moving — and storage — market, From 2019 Apr 20 - 2020 Apr 20, prices are down 28% year-over-year while inventory has swelled by more than 58%. Minnesota saw the largest drop in year-over-year prices at 39% on top of a 140% increase in available storage space."
"As of this week, the average monthly price for a small storage space in Houston is just $23.81. Last year at this time that same locker would have cost $45.21. The drop in prices will certainly hurt local storage businesses in Texas, which was already the least-expensive area in the country for the industry."